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Thursday, 04 March 10
GLOBAL COAL PRICES GETS SUPPORT FROM EM DEMAND
 Commodity Online reported that, AP12 coal prices look well supported in 2010 thanks to positive outlook for Chinese coal demand whereas coal demand in Europe, rest of the world is shockingly low and stocks have hardly drawn despite the coldest winter in decades, according to an analysis by Bank of America- Merrill Lynch (BofAML).
Japan, by far the biggest importer of thermal coal, cut back on its appetite for coal by almost 20 million mt last year, to 117million mt. Europe took in 22 million metric tons less last year, driven particularly by Spain, Italy, the UK and France as low natural gas prices supported switching out of coal in the power sector
Last year China imported 70.4 mn mt of thermal coal, relative to outflows of 7.8 mn in 2008. China's imports will witness slowdown due to ramping up of internal proudction, according to BofAML.
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“Last year China imported 70.4 mln mt of thermal coal, relative to outflows of 7.8 mln in 2008. China's imports will witness slowdown due to ramping up of internal production” - BofAML
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Coal prices are protected to the downside by the high marginal cost of production, particularly in Russia. However, the oversupply in Europe will likely keep a lid on API2 prices near-term.
API2 front month coal increased from a low of $75/mt in mid December to $97/mt in early January, sharply outpacing other energy markets. Heavy snowstorms led to local power shortages, particularly in the South of the country.
Perhaps more importantly, a much stronger-than-expected cyclical rebound in China drove power generation growth to new highs, up 33% YoY over the past three months, helping to fuel coal demand. Other Asian countries also experienced a turn-around in electricity generation. In turn, due to the heavy snowfall and rail constraints, China resorted to seaborne coal as opposed to domestically produced material. Elsewhere, a glaringly cold winter in Europe provided some support to sentiment. Producer infrastructure constraints, particularly in Australia, South Africa and Indonesia, temporarily tightened the international coal market.
Ultimately, the 3-week rally in coal did not last and prices reversed sharply in mid January as the snowfalls in China receded and the USD strengthened. In recent weeks, front-month API2 coal traded down to $72.75/mt and has been in the $72/mt to $79/mt range. Chinese imports in January, though still at a very high level, cooled off month-on-month basis. Moreover, big European coal users, like Germany, France and the UK, recorded steep demand losses in January, at a time that they experienced the sharpest winter in decade, BofAML analysis said.
In the UK for instance, coal demand in December equalled 4.6 million mt, down from 6.3 million mt in the prior year. Preliminary data indicates that the trend continued over the past weeks.
Traditional European coal suppliers are doing what they can to manage supply to Europe. Russia has reportedly closed some mines to keep exports to Europe low. South Africa is actively diversifying away from Europe towards demand outlets in Asia Pacific. During 2009, 31% of South African exports went to India, from virtually nothing in previous years. That trend was particularly pronounced over the past months. Although in small volumes, South Africa has also been pushing material into China. More absurdly, Colombia-- who typically exports 50-60% of their coal to Europe with the balance going to the Americas--
has now detected interest in Asia.
Colombia exported small volumes to China in December to the tune of 1.5-1.7 million mt, for the first time ever. Of course, sharply lower freight rates are helping these trade flows. As we see continued supply of new Capesize vessels in 2010, freight will likely remain cheap by historical standards in the near-term. Once freight recovers, possibly at the end of this year with the cyclical demand recovery soaking up the supply in ships, these trade-flows are unlikely to be sustainable.
Europe's coal inventories remain at excessive levels at key import ports in Rotterdam and Amsterdam as supply exceeds demand. BofAML sses strong relationship between spreads in AP12 and coal inventories. Hence it is no surprise that the contango in API2 has steepened even more, with front month to front calendar year spreads at the widest since July last year , reflecting the oversupply in the European market and bulging inventories.
Coal markets in the Pacific are a lot tighter, with inventories relatively low in key coal consumers like China, India and South Korea. Meanwhile, the Newcastle coal market is trading in backwardation. Several coal mines in Australia had to declare force majeure in response to severe rainfalls on the east coast which flooded mines, while major rail lines had to close, clogging up the coal chain infrastructure. 47 vessels are currently again lining up outside Newcastle , underscoring that infrastructure problems will not go away easily, BofAML analysis said.
Overall, the outlook for emerging market coal demand remains very positive though. China is expected buy more seaborne coal as as the Chinese Renminbi is likely to be revalued by mid year. In BofAMl analysis, a CNY revaluation is undoubtedly positive for global thermal coal prices. Other EMs likeMexico and Turkey are sharply ramping up coal imports. India continues to suffer from a negative coal balance and will have to rely on the seaborne market for supplies. On a medium-term horizon, we believe that global seaborne coal prices have immense upside from the current level given the growth in coal-fired generation capacity.
Source:Commodity Online - By Madhurima R S
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Saturday, 06 February 10
COAL MINISTRY SEEKS CUT IN IMPORT DUTY
The coal ministry wants the finance ministry to reduce the 5.1% import duty on thermal coal and continue with the existing zero import duty on cokin ...
Friday, 05 February 10
IN 2010, CHINA COAL OUTPUT TO REACH AROUND 3.3BLN T
It is expected that China's coal production in 2010 will reach around 3.3bln tons. It is predicted that in the first quarter of 2010, the tight coa ...
Thursday, 04 February 10
INDIA REMAINS FIRM - FEARNRESEARCH
CHARTERING - DRY BULK
Handy
The BSI has continued it´s downward movement for 2 weeks now.Nevertheless activity in the atlantic remains bu ...
Thursday, 04 February 10
INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT & INFRASTRUCTURE ASIA 2010
ASIA-PACIFIC MINISTERIAL CONFERENCE ON PUBLIC-PRIVATE PARTNERSHIPS FOR INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT & INFRASTRUCTURE ASIA 2010
IPFA TO JOIN INF ...
Thursday, 04 February 10
INDIA`S APPETITE FOR COAL EXPECTED TO RISE SHARPLY
Coal powers more than half of India's electricity plants and demand for the commodity is expected to rise sharply as the third-largest Asian econom ...
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Showing 6021 to 6025 news of total 6871 |
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- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The University of Queensland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
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