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Thursday, 04 March 10
GLOBAL COAL PRICES GETS SUPPORT FROM EM DEMAND
 Commodity Online reported that, AP12 coal prices look well supported in 2010 thanks to positive outlook for Chinese coal demand whereas coal demand in Europe, rest of the world is shockingly low and stocks have hardly drawn despite the coldest winter in decades, according to an analysis by Bank of America- Merrill Lynch (BofAML).
Japan, by far the biggest importer of thermal coal, cut back on its appetite for coal by almost 20 million mt last year, to 117million mt. Europe took in 22 million metric tons less last year, driven particularly by Spain, Italy, the UK and France as low natural gas prices supported switching out of coal in the power sector
Last year China imported 70.4 mn mt of thermal coal, relative to outflows of 7.8 mn in 2008. China's imports will witness slowdown due to ramping up of internal proudction, according to BofAML.
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“Last year China imported 70.4 mln mt of thermal coal, relative to outflows of 7.8 mln in 2008. China's imports will witness slowdown due to ramping up of internal production” - BofAML
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Coal prices are protected to the downside by the high marginal cost of production, particularly in Russia. However, the oversupply in Europe will likely keep a lid on API2 prices near-term.
API2 front month coal increased from a low of $75/mt in mid December to $97/mt in early January, sharply outpacing other energy markets. Heavy snowstorms led to local power shortages, particularly in the South of the country.
Perhaps more importantly, a much stronger-than-expected cyclical rebound in China drove power generation growth to new highs, up 33% YoY over the past three months, helping to fuel coal demand. Other Asian countries also experienced a turn-around in electricity generation. In turn, due to the heavy snowfall and rail constraints, China resorted to seaborne coal as opposed to domestically produced material. Elsewhere, a glaringly cold winter in Europe provided some support to sentiment. Producer infrastructure constraints, particularly in Australia, South Africa and Indonesia, temporarily tightened the international coal market.
Ultimately, the 3-week rally in coal did not last and prices reversed sharply in mid January as the snowfalls in China receded and the USD strengthened. In recent weeks, front-month API2 coal traded down to $72.75/mt and has been in the $72/mt to $79/mt range. Chinese imports in January, though still at a very high level, cooled off month-on-month basis. Moreover, big European coal users, like Germany, France and the UK, recorded steep demand losses in January, at a time that they experienced the sharpest winter in decade, BofAML analysis said.
In the UK for instance, coal demand in December equalled 4.6 million mt, down from 6.3 million mt in the prior year. Preliminary data indicates that the trend continued over the past weeks.
Traditional European coal suppliers are doing what they can to manage supply to Europe. Russia has reportedly closed some mines to keep exports to Europe low. South Africa is actively diversifying away from Europe towards demand outlets in Asia Pacific. During 2009, 31% of South African exports went to India, from virtually nothing in previous years. That trend was particularly pronounced over the past months. Although in small volumes, South Africa has also been pushing material into China. More absurdly, Colombia-- who typically exports 50-60% of their coal to Europe with the balance going to the Americas--
has now detected interest in Asia.
Colombia exported small volumes to China in December to the tune of 1.5-1.7 million mt, for the first time ever. Of course, sharply lower freight rates are helping these trade flows. As we see continued supply of new Capesize vessels in 2010, freight will likely remain cheap by historical standards in the near-term. Once freight recovers, possibly at the end of this year with the cyclical demand recovery soaking up the supply in ships, these trade-flows are unlikely to be sustainable.
Europe's coal inventories remain at excessive levels at key import ports in Rotterdam and Amsterdam as supply exceeds demand. BofAML sses strong relationship between spreads in AP12 and coal inventories. Hence it is no surprise that the contango in API2 has steepened even more, with front month to front calendar year spreads at the widest since July last year , reflecting the oversupply in the European market and bulging inventories.
Coal markets in the Pacific are a lot tighter, with inventories relatively low in key coal consumers like China, India and South Korea. Meanwhile, the Newcastle coal market is trading in backwardation. Several coal mines in Australia had to declare force majeure in response to severe rainfalls on the east coast which flooded mines, while major rail lines had to close, clogging up the coal chain infrastructure. 47 vessels are currently again lining up outside Newcastle , underscoring that infrastructure problems will not go away easily, BofAML analysis said.
Overall, the outlook for emerging market coal demand remains very positive though. China is expected buy more seaborne coal as as the Chinese Renminbi is likely to be revalued by mid year. In BofAMl analysis, a CNY revaluation is undoubtedly positive for global thermal coal prices. Other EMs likeMexico and Turkey are sharply ramping up coal imports. India continues to suffer from a negative coal balance and will have to rely on the seaborne market for supplies. On a medium-term horizon, we believe that global seaborne coal prices have immense upside from the current level given the growth in coal-fired generation capacity.
Source:Commodity Online - By Madhurima R S
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Tuesday, 30 March 10
CHINA'S DROUGHT RAISES COAL PRICES, LOWERS HYDROPOWER
Bloomberg reported that, Benchmark coal prices at Qinhuangdao, China’s largest port handling the fuel, rose for the first time in 10 weeks aft ...
Tuesday, 30 March 10
PRICES FOR COKING COAL, IRON ORE TO SOAR AMID BURGEONING STEEL DEMAND: SCOTIABANK
Winnipeg Free Press reported that, Strong steel demand from China and a recovery in the developed world will push coking coal prices 56 per ce ...
Sunday, 28 March 10
DEMAND FROM INDIA RESHAPING THE GLOBAL COAL MARKET - DAVE FOREST
Attention international coal industry. There's a new kid on the block.
The nation of India.
India is emerging as a major re-shaping force for ...
Sunday, 28 March 10
SHIPS FROM WC INDIA TO CHINA CONTINUED TO BE FIXED AT HEALTHY LEVELS AT AROUND US$ 50/52,000 PER DAY - VISTAAR
COALspot.com: The dry bulk freight market seemed to be heading for a correction with all the indices dropping by 8-10 pct except for handy size whic ...
Saturday, 27 March 10
CHINA DROUGHT MAY RAISE COAL DEMAND, BOOST PRICES, CLSA SAYS - BLOOMBERG
Bloomberg reported that, Droughts in southwest China may increase demand for coal used in power plants, and ‘support” prices in the &ldq ...
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Showing 5916 to 5920 news of total 6871 |
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- PTC India Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
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