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Thursday, 04 March 10
GLOBAL COAL PRICES GETS SUPPORT FROM EM DEMAND
 Commodity Online reported that, AP12 coal prices look well supported in 2010 thanks to positive outlook for Chinese coal demand whereas coal demand in Europe, rest of the world is shockingly low and stocks have hardly drawn despite the coldest winter in decades, according to an analysis by Bank of America- Merrill Lynch (BofAML).
Japan, by far the biggest importer of thermal coal, cut back on its appetite for coal by almost 20 million mt last year, to 117million mt. Europe took in 22 million metric tons less last year, driven particularly by Spain, Italy, the UK and France as low natural gas prices supported switching out of coal in the power sector
Last year China imported 70.4 mn mt of thermal coal, relative to outflows of 7.8 mn in 2008. China's imports will witness slowdown due to ramping up of internal proudction, according to BofAML.
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“Last year China imported 70.4 mln mt of thermal coal, relative to outflows of 7.8 mln in 2008. China's imports will witness slowdown due to ramping up of internal production” - BofAML
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Coal prices are protected to the downside by the high marginal cost of production, particularly in Russia. However, the oversupply in Europe will likely keep a lid on API2 prices near-term.
API2 front month coal increased from a low of $75/mt in mid December to $97/mt in early January, sharply outpacing other energy markets. Heavy snowstorms led to local power shortages, particularly in the South of the country.
Perhaps more importantly, a much stronger-than-expected cyclical rebound in China drove power generation growth to new highs, up 33% YoY over the past three months, helping to fuel coal demand. Other Asian countries also experienced a turn-around in electricity generation. In turn, due to the heavy snowfall and rail constraints, China resorted to seaborne coal as opposed to domestically produced material. Elsewhere, a glaringly cold winter in Europe provided some support to sentiment. Producer infrastructure constraints, particularly in Australia, South Africa and Indonesia, temporarily tightened the international coal market.
Ultimately, the 3-week rally in coal did not last and prices reversed sharply in mid January as the snowfalls in China receded and the USD strengthened. In recent weeks, front-month API2 coal traded down to $72.75/mt and has been in the $72/mt to $79/mt range. Chinese imports in January, though still at a very high level, cooled off month-on-month basis. Moreover, big European coal users, like Germany, France and the UK, recorded steep demand losses in January, at a time that they experienced the sharpest winter in decade, BofAML analysis said.
In the UK for instance, coal demand in December equalled 4.6 million mt, down from 6.3 million mt in the prior year. Preliminary data indicates that the trend continued over the past weeks.
Traditional European coal suppliers are doing what they can to manage supply to Europe. Russia has reportedly closed some mines to keep exports to Europe low. South Africa is actively diversifying away from Europe towards demand outlets in Asia Pacific. During 2009, 31% of South African exports went to India, from virtually nothing in previous years. That trend was particularly pronounced over the past months. Although in small volumes, South Africa has also been pushing material into China. More absurdly, Colombia-- who typically exports 50-60% of their coal to Europe with the balance going to the Americas--
has now detected interest in Asia.
Colombia exported small volumes to China in December to the tune of 1.5-1.7 million mt, for the first time ever. Of course, sharply lower freight rates are helping these trade flows. As we see continued supply of new Capesize vessels in 2010, freight will likely remain cheap by historical standards in the near-term. Once freight recovers, possibly at the end of this year with the cyclical demand recovery soaking up the supply in ships, these trade-flows are unlikely to be sustainable.
Europe's coal inventories remain at excessive levels at key import ports in Rotterdam and Amsterdam as supply exceeds demand. BofAML sses strong relationship between spreads in AP12 and coal inventories. Hence it is no surprise that the contango in API2 has steepened even more, with front month to front calendar year spreads at the widest since July last year , reflecting the oversupply in the European market and bulging inventories.
Coal markets in the Pacific are a lot tighter, with inventories relatively low in key coal consumers like China, India and South Korea. Meanwhile, the Newcastle coal market is trading in backwardation. Several coal mines in Australia had to declare force majeure in response to severe rainfalls on the east coast which flooded mines, while major rail lines had to close, clogging up the coal chain infrastructure. 47 vessels are currently again lining up outside Newcastle , underscoring that infrastructure problems will not go away easily, BofAML analysis said.
Overall, the outlook for emerging market coal demand remains very positive though. China is expected buy more seaborne coal as as the Chinese Renminbi is likely to be revalued by mid year. In BofAMl analysis, a CNY revaluation is undoubtedly positive for global thermal coal prices. Other EMs likeMexico and Turkey are sharply ramping up coal imports. India continues to suffer from a negative coal balance and will have to rely on the seaborne market for supplies. On a medium-term horizon, we believe that global seaborne coal prices have immense upside from the current level given the growth in coal-fired generation capacity.
Source:Commodity Online - By Madhurima R S
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Wednesday, 31 March 10
COAL INDIA MULLS JOINT VENTURE WITH RIO TINTO AND PEABODY - DNA
DNA reported that, Coal India Ltd. (CIL) has finalised two key contenders for its international joint venture (JV) in Australian and US each. The co ...
Wednesday, 31 March 10
DRY BULK MARKET STILL MODERATELY FALLING, BUT POSITIVE SIGNS APPEAR ON THE HORIZON - HELLENIC SHIPPING
The irregularities of the current dry bulk market have been more than evident in the fact that panamax vessels today earn more than their larger cap ...
Wednesday, 31 March 10
INDIKA ENERGYS PROFIT HIT BY FOREX LOSS AND CABOTAGE - THE JAKARTA GLOBE
The Jakarta Globe reportd that, PT Indika Energy posted a 30 percent drop in 2009 net profit due to a foreign exchange loss and impairment of intang ...
Wednesday, 31 March 10
ITMG TO UP COAL OUTPUT DESPITE PERMIT PROBLEMS - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post reported that, the country’s third largest coal producer PT Indo Tambang Raya Megah (ITMG) said it can raise output although ...
Tuesday, 30 March 10
ANALYST SEES BDI LIFT, SUGGESTS DRY BULK SHORT SQUEEZE
Analysts at Credit Suisse are bullish on Diana and see a potential short squeeze elsewhere in the sector. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) -- an industry ...
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Showing 5911 to 5915 news of total 6871 |
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- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Planning Commission, India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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