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Thursday, 04 March 10
GLOBAL COAL PRICES GETS SUPPORT FROM EM DEMAND
 Commodity Online reported that, AP12 coal prices look well supported in 2010 thanks to positive outlook for Chinese coal demand whereas coal demand in Europe, rest of the world is shockingly low and stocks have hardly drawn despite the coldest winter in decades, according to an analysis by Bank of America- Merrill Lynch (BofAML).
Japan, by far the biggest importer of thermal coal, cut back on its appetite for coal by almost 20 million mt last year, to 117million mt. Europe took in 22 million metric tons less last year, driven particularly by Spain, Italy, the UK and France as low natural gas prices supported switching out of coal in the power sector
Last year China imported 70.4 mn mt of thermal coal, relative to outflows of 7.8 mn in 2008. China's imports will witness slowdown due to ramping up of internal proudction, according to BofAML.
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“Last year China imported 70.4 mln mt of thermal coal, relative to outflows of 7.8 mln in 2008. China's imports will witness slowdown due to ramping up of internal production” - BofAML
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Coal prices are protected to the downside by the high marginal cost of production, particularly in Russia. However, the oversupply in Europe will likely keep a lid on API2 prices near-term.
API2 front month coal increased from a low of $75/mt in mid December to $97/mt in early January, sharply outpacing other energy markets. Heavy snowstorms led to local power shortages, particularly in the South of the country.
Perhaps more importantly, a much stronger-than-expected cyclical rebound in China drove power generation growth to new highs, up 33% YoY over the past three months, helping to fuel coal demand. Other Asian countries also experienced a turn-around in electricity generation. In turn, due to the heavy snowfall and rail constraints, China resorted to seaborne coal as opposed to domestically produced material. Elsewhere, a glaringly cold winter in Europe provided some support to sentiment. Producer infrastructure constraints, particularly in Australia, South Africa and Indonesia, temporarily tightened the international coal market.
Ultimately, the 3-week rally in coal did not last and prices reversed sharply in mid January as the snowfalls in China receded and the USD strengthened. In recent weeks, front-month API2 coal traded down to $72.75/mt and has been in the $72/mt to $79/mt range. Chinese imports in January, though still at a very high level, cooled off month-on-month basis. Moreover, big European coal users, like Germany, France and the UK, recorded steep demand losses in January, at a time that they experienced the sharpest winter in decade, BofAML analysis said.
In the UK for instance, coal demand in December equalled 4.6 million mt, down from 6.3 million mt in the prior year. Preliminary data indicates that the trend continued over the past weeks.
Traditional European coal suppliers are doing what they can to manage supply to Europe. Russia has reportedly closed some mines to keep exports to Europe low. South Africa is actively diversifying away from Europe towards demand outlets in Asia Pacific. During 2009, 31% of South African exports went to India, from virtually nothing in previous years. That trend was particularly pronounced over the past months. Although in small volumes, South Africa has also been pushing material into China. More absurdly, Colombia-- who typically exports 50-60% of their coal to Europe with the balance going to the Americas--
has now detected interest in Asia.
Colombia exported small volumes to China in December to the tune of 1.5-1.7 million mt, for the first time ever. Of course, sharply lower freight rates are helping these trade flows. As we see continued supply of new Capesize vessels in 2010, freight will likely remain cheap by historical standards in the near-term. Once freight recovers, possibly at the end of this year with the cyclical demand recovery soaking up the supply in ships, these trade-flows are unlikely to be sustainable.
Europe's coal inventories remain at excessive levels at key import ports in Rotterdam and Amsterdam as supply exceeds demand. BofAML sses strong relationship between spreads in AP12 and coal inventories. Hence it is no surprise that the contango in API2 has steepened even more, with front month to front calendar year spreads at the widest since July last year , reflecting the oversupply in the European market and bulging inventories.
Coal markets in the Pacific are a lot tighter, with inventories relatively low in key coal consumers like China, India and South Korea. Meanwhile, the Newcastle coal market is trading in backwardation. Several coal mines in Australia had to declare force majeure in response to severe rainfalls on the east coast which flooded mines, while major rail lines had to close, clogging up the coal chain infrastructure. 47 vessels are currently again lining up outside Newcastle , underscoring that infrastructure problems will not go away easily, BofAML analysis said.
Overall, the outlook for emerging market coal demand remains very positive though. China is expected buy more seaborne coal as as the Chinese Renminbi is likely to be revalued by mid year. In BofAMl analysis, a CNY revaluation is undoubtedly positive for global thermal coal prices. Other EMs likeMexico and Turkey are sharply ramping up coal imports. India continues to suffer from a negative coal balance and will have to rely on the seaborne market for supplies. On a medium-term horizon, we believe that global seaborne coal prices have immense upside from the current level given the growth in coal-fired generation capacity.
Source:Commodity Online - By Madhurima R S
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Wednesday, 31 March 10
COAL INDIA MULLS JOINT VENTURE WITH RIO TINTO AND PEABODY - DNA
DNA reported that, Coal India Ltd. (CIL) has finalised two key contenders for its international joint venture (JV) in Australian and US each. The co ...
Wednesday, 31 March 10
DRY BULK MARKET STILL MODERATELY FALLING, BUT POSITIVE SIGNS APPEAR ON THE HORIZON - HELLENIC SHIPPING
The irregularities of the current dry bulk market have been more than evident in the fact that panamax vessels today earn more than their larger cap ...
Wednesday, 31 March 10
INDIKA ENERGYS PROFIT HIT BY FOREX LOSS AND CABOTAGE - THE JAKARTA GLOBE
The Jakarta Globe reportd that, PT Indika Energy posted a 30 percent drop in 2009 net profit due to a foreign exchange loss and impairment of intang ...
Wednesday, 31 March 10
ITMG TO UP COAL OUTPUT DESPITE PERMIT PROBLEMS - THE JAKARTA POST
The Jakarta Post reported that, the country’s third largest coal producer PT Indo Tambang Raya Megah (ITMG) said it can raise output although ...
Tuesday, 30 March 10
ANALYST SEES BDI LIFT, SUGGESTS DRY BULK SHORT SQUEEZE
Analysts at Credit Suisse are bullish on Diana and see a potential short squeeze elsewhere in the sector. The Baltic Dry Index (BDI) -- an industry ...
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Showing 5911 to 5915 news of total 6871 |
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- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Australian Coal Association
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- PTC India Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
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