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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), in our February Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). We forecast increases in natural gas prices as demand for natural gas grows faster than supply in 2024.
In 2022 and 2023, increases in natural gas supply (domestic natural gas production and imports) exceeded the increases in natural gas demand (domestic consumption and exports). In 2024, we expect the reverse will be true: demand increases by 2.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in our forecast, and supply remains relatively flat. In 2025, we expect supply and demand to grow at similar rates, although inventories will build because supply will still slightly exceed demand in our forecast.
At the end of January 2024, 7% more natural gas was held in U.S. inventories than the five-year (2019–23) average for that time of year. We expect natural gas inventories to remain high relative to their previous five-year average throughout 2024 and 2025.
We forecast that most of our increase in U.S. natural gas supply will come from domestic production of associated natural gas, much of which is in the Permian region of western Texas and eastern New Mexico. As a result, if U.S. crude oil production is less than we expect, we will also see less natural gas production than we forecast. In late 2023, we described in a STEO Perspectives paper how different crude oil prices might affect crude oil and natural gas production in our short-term forecast.
Growth in natural gas demand is driven by domestic consumption in 2024, then exports in 2025
We expect natural gas consumption to grow in all sectors in 2024 except the industrial sector, where we expect consumption will decrease slightly. Sectoral changes in natural gas consumption depend mostly on the weather. Natural gas-fired power plants provide about 40% of U.S. electricity generation annually, so electricity demand from heating and air-conditioning equipment influences how much natural gas the electric power sector consumes. We expect about 11% more U.S. natural gas consumption for electricity in 2024 than the previous five-year average.
In the residential and commercial sectors, colder temperatures in the winter also affect direct natural gas consumption by heating equipment. We expect combined consumption in the residential and commercial sectors to be 5% higher in 2024 than in 2023 because January 2023 and December 2023 had warmer-than-average temperatures, leading to relatively low consumption of natural gas for space heating. Our assumptions for future weather largely reflect the trend of the past 30 years.
The mix of energy sources and technologies used to generate electricity also affects natural gas consumption in the electric power sector. As developers add more generating capacity from solar- and wind-powered generators, those generators’ incremental generation may reduce the need to dispatch natural gas-fired power plants. Changes in the timing and magnitude of new solar and wind capacity would also affect our forecast for natural gas consumption in the electric power sector.
U.S. natural gas exports depend on the timing of new LNG export terminals
The United States exported 20.8 Bcf/d of natural gas in 2023, 57% as liquefied natural gas (LNG). At the end of 2023, 11.4 Bcf/d of baseload nameplate LNG export capacity had been built in the United States, and we expect developers to add an additional 5.3 Bcf/d of new LNG export capacity by the end of 2025.
According to trade press reports and other sources, three new terminals will come on line in the second half of 2024 and in 2025. Any changes to the operational dates of the three new export terminals—Golden Pass and Corpus Christi Stage III in Texas and Plaquemines LNG in Louisiana—may notably affect our LNG export forecast and, in turn, our overall natural gas demand expectations.
Our forecast accounts for the recent U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) announcement to pause determinations on applications to export LNG to countries with which the United States does not have a free trade agreement. However, capacity additions through 2025 will not be affected because these projects have been fully authorized by DOE and are already under construction.
Natural gas prices at several price hubs in Europe and Asia remain relatively high over the forecast period compared with U.S. natural gas prices. We assume that U.S. LNG over the forecast period will continue to replace natural gas that had been exported from Russia by pipeline to Europe. Because global LNG liquefaction capacity additions will be limited in the next two years, demand for flexible LNG supplies, mainly from the United States, will increase to meet incremental growth in global demand.
Source: EIA
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Friday, 17 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL PRICE REFERENCE UP AROUND 2.17% IN MARCH 2023
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference up around 2.17% in March 2023.
According to the new HBA regulation No. 41.K/MB.0 ...
Saturday, 11 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Uncertainty over the recovery of Chinese demand, demand destruction in Europe, as well as weather conditions will pivot the LNG market this summer. ...
Wednesday, 08 March 23
INDONESIAN COAL REFERENCE PRICE FORMULA HAS OFFICIALLY CHANGED
Indonesian Minister of Energy and Mineral Resources has officially changed the guideline for determining the benchmark price for the sale of coal c ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
INDIA'S SEABORNE CRUDE OIL IMPORTS IN 2022 INCREASED BY 11.5% YOY - BANCHERO COSTA
2022 has turned out to be a very positive year for crude oil trade, despite the surging oil prices and risks of economic recession, Banchero Costa ...
Thursday, 02 March 23
DRY BULK MARKET: THE WAY CHINA GOES, SO GOES THE MARKET - BIMCO
We expect demand growth within the 1.5-2.5% range in 2023, driven by China’s economic recovery. Improvements in consumer sentiment should hel ...
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- MS Steel International - UAE
- The University of Queensland
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
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