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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), in our February Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). We forecast increases in natural gas prices as demand for natural gas grows faster than supply in 2024.
In 2022 and 2023, increases in natural gas supply (domestic natural gas production and imports) exceeded the increases in natural gas demand (domestic consumption and exports). In 2024, we expect the reverse will be true: demand increases by 2.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in our forecast, and supply remains relatively flat. In 2025, we expect supply and demand to grow at similar rates, although inventories will build because supply will still slightly exceed demand in our forecast.
At the end of January 2024, 7% more natural gas was held in U.S. inventories than the five-year (2019–23) average for that time of year. We expect natural gas inventories to remain high relative to their previous five-year average throughout 2024 and 2025.
We forecast that most of our increase in U.S. natural gas supply will come from domestic production of associated natural gas, much of which is in the Permian region of western Texas and eastern New Mexico. As a result, if U.S. crude oil production is less than we expect, we will also see less natural gas production than we forecast. In late 2023, we described in a STEO Perspectives paper how different crude oil prices might affect crude oil and natural gas production in our short-term forecast.
Growth in natural gas demand is driven by domestic consumption in 2024, then exports in 2025
We expect natural gas consumption to grow in all sectors in 2024 except the industrial sector, where we expect consumption will decrease slightly. Sectoral changes in natural gas consumption depend mostly on the weather. Natural gas-fired power plants provide about 40% of U.S. electricity generation annually, so electricity demand from heating and air-conditioning equipment influences how much natural gas the electric power sector consumes. We expect about 11% more U.S. natural gas consumption for electricity in 2024 than the previous five-year average.
In the residential and commercial sectors, colder temperatures in the winter also affect direct natural gas consumption by heating equipment. We expect combined consumption in the residential and commercial sectors to be 5% higher in 2024 than in 2023 because January 2023 and December 2023 had warmer-than-average temperatures, leading to relatively low consumption of natural gas for space heating. Our assumptions for future weather largely reflect the trend of the past 30 years.
The mix of energy sources and technologies used to generate electricity also affects natural gas consumption in the electric power sector. As developers add more generating capacity from solar- and wind-powered generators, those generators’ incremental generation may reduce the need to dispatch natural gas-fired power plants. Changes in the timing and magnitude of new solar and wind capacity would also affect our forecast for natural gas consumption in the electric power sector.
U.S. natural gas exports depend on the timing of new LNG export terminals
The United States exported 20.8 Bcf/d of natural gas in 2023, 57% as liquefied natural gas (LNG). At the end of 2023, 11.4 Bcf/d of baseload nameplate LNG export capacity had been built in the United States, and we expect developers to add an additional 5.3 Bcf/d of new LNG export capacity by the end of 2025.
According to trade press reports and other sources, three new terminals will come on line in the second half of 2024 and in 2025. Any changes to the operational dates of the three new export terminals—Golden Pass and Corpus Christi Stage III in Texas and Plaquemines LNG in Louisiana—may notably affect our LNG export forecast and, in turn, our overall natural gas demand expectations.
Our forecast accounts for the recent U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) announcement to pause determinations on applications to export LNG to countries with which the United States does not have a free trade agreement. However, capacity additions through 2025 will not be affected because these projects have been fully authorized by DOE and are already under construction.
Natural gas prices at several price hubs in Europe and Asia remain relatively high over the forecast period compared with U.S. natural gas prices. We assume that U.S. LNG over the forecast period will continue to replace natural gas that had been exported from Russia by pipeline to Europe. Because global LNG liquefaction capacity additions will be limited in the next two years, demand for flexible LNG supplies, mainly from the United States, will increase to meet incremental growth in global demand.
Source: EIA
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Saturday, 25 March 23
ASIAN CRUDE PALM OIL WATCH 1Q23 - FITCH RATINGS
Malaysian benchmark crude palm oil (CPO) spot prices have averaged around USD915 per tonne (t) so far in 1Q23, sharply lower than the average of ar ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
INDONESIA’S COAL EXPORT INCREASED BY 21.0% YOY TO 388.4 MLN T IN 2022 - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels. In the f ...
Saturday, 25 March 23
GLOBAL LNG-ASIA SPOT PRICES SLIP AS WEAK NORTHERN DEMAND REMAINS - REUTERS
Asian spot prices of liquefied natural gas (LNG) declined this week, falling to a 21-month low, as weak demand in the northeast Asia region continu ...
Wednesday, 22 March 23
OIL PRICE FALL SPECULATIVE, TO HIT $140 BY YEAR-END -ANDURAND: REUTERS
The recent fall in oil prices due to banking jitters is speculative and oil will hit $140 a barrel by the end of the year, hedge fund manager Pierr ...
Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a ...
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- VISA Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The University of Queensland
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Coal Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PTC India Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Minerals Council of Australia
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