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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), in our February Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). We forecast increases in natural gas prices as demand for natural gas grows faster than supply in 2024.
In 2022 and 2023, increases in natural gas supply (domestic natural gas production and imports) exceeded the increases in natural gas demand (domestic consumption and exports). In 2024, we expect the reverse will be true: demand increases by 2.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in our forecast, and supply remains relatively flat. In 2025, we expect supply and demand to grow at similar rates, although inventories will build because supply will still slightly exceed demand in our forecast.
At the end of January 2024, 7% more natural gas was held in U.S. inventories than the five-year (2019–23) average for that time of year. We expect natural gas inventories to remain high relative to their previous five-year average throughout 2024 and 2025.
We forecast that most of our increase in U.S. natural gas supply will come from domestic production of associated natural gas, much of which is in the Permian region of western Texas and eastern New Mexico. As a result, if U.S. crude oil production is less than we expect, we will also see less natural gas production than we forecast. In late 2023, we described in a STEO Perspectives paper how different crude oil prices might affect crude oil and natural gas production in our short-term forecast.
Growth in natural gas demand is driven by domestic consumption in 2024, then exports in 2025
We expect natural gas consumption to grow in all sectors in 2024 except the industrial sector, where we expect consumption will decrease slightly. Sectoral changes in natural gas consumption depend mostly on the weather. Natural gas-fired power plants provide about 40% of U.S. electricity generation annually, so electricity demand from heating and air-conditioning equipment influences how much natural gas the electric power sector consumes. We expect about 11% more U.S. natural gas consumption for electricity in 2024 than the previous five-year average.
In the residential and commercial sectors, colder temperatures in the winter also affect direct natural gas consumption by heating equipment. We expect combined consumption in the residential and commercial sectors to be 5% higher in 2024 than in 2023 because January 2023 and December 2023 had warmer-than-average temperatures, leading to relatively low consumption of natural gas for space heating. Our assumptions for future weather largely reflect the trend of the past 30 years.
The mix of energy sources and technologies used to generate electricity also affects natural gas consumption in the electric power sector. As developers add more generating capacity from solar- and wind-powered generators, those generators’ incremental generation may reduce the need to dispatch natural gas-fired power plants. Changes in the timing and magnitude of new solar and wind capacity would also affect our forecast for natural gas consumption in the electric power sector.
U.S. natural gas exports depend on the timing of new LNG export terminals
The United States exported 20.8 Bcf/d of natural gas in 2023, 57% as liquefied natural gas (LNG). At the end of 2023, 11.4 Bcf/d of baseload nameplate LNG export capacity had been built in the United States, and we expect developers to add an additional 5.3 Bcf/d of new LNG export capacity by the end of 2025.
According to trade press reports and other sources, three new terminals will come on line in the second half of 2024 and in 2025. Any changes to the operational dates of the three new export terminals—Golden Pass and Corpus Christi Stage III in Texas and Plaquemines LNG in Louisiana—may notably affect our LNG export forecast and, in turn, our overall natural gas demand expectations.
Our forecast accounts for the recent U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) announcement to pause determinations on applications to export LNG to countries with which the United States does not have a free trade agreement. However, capacity additions through 2025 will not be affected because these projects have been fully authorized by DOE and are already under construction.
Natural gas prices at several price hubs in Europe and Asia remain relatively high over the forecast period compared with U.S. natural gas prices. We assume that U.S. LNG over the forecast period will continue to replace natural gas that had been exported from Russia by pipeline to Europe. Because global LNG liquefaction capacity additions will be limited in the next two years, demand for flexible LNG supplies, mainly from the United States, will increase to meet incremental growth in global demand.
Source: EIA
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Sunday, 16 April 23
CHINA'S MARCH COAL IMPORTS JUMP TO 3-YEAR HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal imports surged in March to their highest in any month over the past three years as utilities increased purchases on expectations ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
OPEC KEEPS WORLD OIL DEMAND GROWTH OUTLOOK UNCHANGED
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined in March by $3.43, or 4.2%, m-o-m to average $78.45/b. The ICE Brent first-month contract fell by $4.33, o ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
CHEAPER SPOT LNG PRICES TEMPT SOME ASIAN BUYERS AMID SUPPLY GAINS - REUTERS
Cheaper spot prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) are luring price-sensitive buyers back in Asia, with China and India recording rising imports i ...
Tuesday, 11 April 23
COAL USE CLIMBS WORLDWIDE DESPITE PROMISES TO SLASH IT - AAP
The burning of coal for electricity, cement, steel and other uses went up in 2022 despite global promises to phase down the fuel that is the bigges ...
Tuesday, 11 April 23
OIL RISES ON CHINA STIMULUS EXPECTATIONS, WEAKER DOLLAR - REUTERS
Oil prices rose on Tuesday on expectations of potential economic stimulus by China, healthy demand in the rest of Asia and a drop in U.S. crude sto ...
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
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