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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), in our February Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). We forecast increases in natural gas prices as demand for natural gas grows faster than supply in 2024.
In 2022 and 2023, increases in natural gas supply (domestic natural gas production and imports) exceeded the increases in natural gas demand (domestic consumption and exports). In 2024, we expect the reverse will be true: demand increases by 2.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in our forecast, and supply remains relatively flat. In 2025, we expect supply and demand to grow at similar rates, although inventories will build because supply will still slightly exceed demand in our forecast.
At the end of January 2024, 7% more natural gas was held in U.S. inventories than the five-year (2019–23) average for that time of year. We expect natural gas inventories to remain high relative to their previous five-year average throughout 2024 and 2025.
We forecast that most of our increase in U.S. natural gas supply will come from domestic production of associated natural gas, much of which is in the Permian region of western Texas and eastern New Mexico. As a result, if U.S. crude oil production is less than we expect, we will also see less natural gas production than we forecast. In late 2023, we described in a STEO Perspectives paper how different crude oil prices might affect crude oil and natural gas production in our short-term forecast.
Growth in natural gas demand is driven by domestic consumption in 2024, then exports in 2025
We expect natural gas consumption to grow in all sectors in 2024 except the industrial sector, where we expect consumption will decrease slightly. Sectoral changes in natural gas consumption depend mostly on the weather. Natural gas-fired power plants provide about 40% of U.S. electricity generation annually, so electricity demand from heating and air-conditioning equipment influences how much natural gas the electric power sector consumes. We expect about 11% more U.S. natural gas consumption for electricity in 2024 than the previous five-year average.
In the residential and commercial sectors, colder temperatures in the winter also affect direct natural gas consumption by heating equipment. We expect combined consumption in the residential and commercial sectors to be 5% higher in 2024 than in 2023 because January 2023 and December 2023 had warmer-than-average temperatures, leading to relatively low consumption of natural gas for space heating. Our assumptions for future weather largely reflect the trend of the past 30 years.
The mix of energy sources and technologies used to generate electricity also affects natural gas consumption in the electric power sector. As developers add more generating capacity from solar- and wind-powered generators, those generators’ incremental generation may reduce the need to dispatch natural gas-fired power plants. Changes in the timing and magnitude of new solar and wind capacity would also affect our forecast for natural gas consumption in the electric power sector.
U.S. natural gas exports depend on the timing of new LNG export terminals
The United States exported 20.8 Bcf/d of natural gas in 2023, 57% as liquefied natural gas (LNG). At the end of 2023, 11.4 Bcf/d of baseload nameplate LNG export capacity had been built in the United States, and we expect developers to add an additional 5.3 Bcf/d of new LNG export capacity by the end of 2025.
According to trade press reports and other sources, three new terminals will come on line in the second half of 2024 and in 2025. Any changes to the operational dates of the three new export terminals—Golden Pass and Corpus Christi Stage III in Texas and Plaquemines LNG in Louisiana—may notably affect our LNG export forecast and, in turn, our overall natural gas demand expectations.
Our forecast accounts for the recent U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) announcement to pause determinations on applications to export LNG to countries with which the United States does not have a free trade agreement. However, capacity additions through 2025 will not be affected because these projects have been fully authorized by DOE and are already under construction.
Natural gas prices at several price hubs in Europe and Asia remain relatively high over the forecast period compared with U.S. natural gas prices. We assume that U.S. LNG over the forecast period will continue to replace natural gas that had been exported from Russia by pipeline to Europe. Because global LNG liquefaction capacity additions will be limited in the next two years, demand for flexible LNG supplies, mainly from the United States, will increase to meet incremental growth in global demand.
Source: EIA
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Tuesday, 23 May 23
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 4.5 PCT IN APRIL - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in April, official data showed.
The country produced 380 million tonnes of raw ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
NON-OPEC OIL SUPPLY DEVELOPMENT - OPEC
In 2022, non-OPEC supply is estimated to have increased by 1.9 mb/d y-o-y. Out of this, US liquids production increased by 1.2 mb/d, mainly on the ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
GLOBAL COAL TRADE HAS REALLY PICKED UP PACE IN RECENT MONTHS, NOW FULLY BACK TO PRE-COVID LEVELS - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace in recent months, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels. In Jan-Apr 2023, total global seaborne coa ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
India is one of the world's largest coal producers and one of the world's largest importers of coal. The country uses coal mainly for power ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
CHINA JUGGLES FOUR MAJOR ECONOMIC CHANGES IN 2023 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Change is afoot in China. Economic growth is slowing, while rising political tensions between China and the US, coupled with global supply chain re ...
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Showing 101 to 105 news of total 6871 |
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- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- White Energy Company Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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