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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), in our February Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). We forecast increases in natural gas prices as demand for natural gas grows faster than supply in 2024.
In 2022 and 2023, increases in natural gas supply (domestic natural gas production and imports) exceeded the increases in natural gas demand (domestic consumption and exports). In 2024, we expect the reverse will be true: demand increases by 2.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in our forecast, and supply remains relatively flat. In 2025, we expect supply and demand to grow at similar rates, although inventories will build because supply will still slightly exceed demand in our forecast.
At the end of January 2024, 7% more natural gas was held in U.S. inventories than the five-year (2019–23) average for that time of year. We expect natural gas inventories to remain high relative to their previous five-year average throughout 2024 and 2025.
We forecast that most of our increase in U.S. natural gas supply will come from domestic production of associated natural gas, much of which is in the Permian region of western Texas and eastern New Mexico. As a result, if U.S. crude oil production is less than we expect, we will also see less natural gas production than we forecast. In late 2023, we described in a STEO Perspectives paper how different crude oil prices might affect crude oil and natural gas production in our short-term forecast.
Growth in natural gas demand is driven by domestic consumption in 2024, then exports in 2025
We expect natural gas consumption to grow in all sectors in 2024 except the industrial sector, where we expect consumption will decrease slightly. Sectoral changes in natural gas consumption depend mostly on the weather. Natural gas-fired power plants provide about 40% of U.S. electricity generation annually, so electricity demand from heating and air-conditioning equipment influences how much natural gas the electric power sector consumes. We expect about 11% more U.S. natural gas consumption for electricity in 2024 than the previous five-year average.
In the residential and commercial sectors, colder temperatures in the winter also affect direct natural gas consumption by heating equipment. We expect combined consumption in the residential and commercial sectors to be 5% higher in 2024 than in 2023 because January 2023 and December 2023 had warmer-than-average temperatures, leading to relatively low consumption of natural gas for space heating. Our assumptions for future weather largely reflect the trend of the past 30 years.
The mix of energy sources and technologies used to generate electricity also affects natural gas consumption in the electric power sector. As developers add more generating capacity from solar- and wind-powered generators, those generators’ incremental generation may reduce the need to dispatch natural gas-fired power plants. Changes in the timing and magnitude of new solar and wind capacity would also affect our forecast for natural gas consumption in the electric power sector.
U.S. natural gas exports depend on the timing of new LNG export terminals
The United States exported 20.8 Bcf/d of natural gas in 2023, 57% as liquefied natural gas (LNG). At the end of 2023, 11.4 Bcf/d of baseload nameplate LNG export capacity had been built in the United States, and we expect developers to add an additional 5.3 Bcf/d of new LNG export capacity by the end of 2025.
According to trade press reports and other sources, three new terminals will come on line in the second half of 2024 and in 2025. Any changes to the operational dates of the three new export terminals—Golden Pass and Corpus Christi Stage III in Texas and Plaquemines LNG in Louisiana—may notably affect our LNG export forecast and, in turn, our overall natural gas demand expectations.
Our forecast accounts for the recent U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) announcement to pause determinations on applications to export LNG to countries with which the United States does not have a free trade agreement. However, capacity additions through 2025 will not be affected because these projects have been fully authorized by DOE and are already under construction.
Natural gas prices at several price hubs in Europe and Asia remain relatively high over the forecast period compared with U.S. natural gas prices. We assume that U.S. LNG over the forecast period will continue to replace natural gas that had been exported from Russia by pipeline to Europe. Because global LNG liquefaction capacity additions will be limited in the next two years, demand for flexible LNG supplies, mainly from the United States, will increase to meet incremental growth in global demand.
Source: EIA
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Saturday, 25 February 23
INDONESIA IS STILL BY FAR THE TOP SUPPLIER OF COAL TO CHINA - BANCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels, said ban ...
Wednesday, 22 February 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The short-term outlook of the global soybean market is currently pivoted by a combination of weather patterns that are affecting the harvest progre ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
OIL UNLIKELY TO BREAK ABOVE $100/BBL THIS YEAR, J.P.MORGAN SAYS –- REUTERS
Brent oil prices are unlikely to breach the $100 a barrel level this year, barring any significant geopolitical drivers, with OPEC+ potentially add ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
CHINA'S COAL PRICES FALL TO 1 YR-LOW, CLOUDING DEMAND AND IMPORT OUTLOOK - REUTERS
China’s thermal coal prices hit their lowest levels in a year this week on rising inventories as domestic mine production is recovering faste ...
Saturday, 18 February 23
PAKISTAN PLANS TO QUADRUPLE DOMESTIC COAL-FIRED POWER, MOVE AWAY FROM GAS - REUTERS
Pakistan plans to quadruple its domestic coal-fired capacity to reduce power generation costs and will not build new gas-fired plants in the coming ...
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- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The University of Queensland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PTC India Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
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