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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), in our February Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). We forecast increases in natural gas prices as demand for natural gas grows faster than supply in 2024.
In 2022 and 2023, increases in natural gas supply (domestic natural gas production and imports) exceeded the increases in natural gas demand (domestic consumption and exports). In 2024, we expect the reverse will be true: demand increases by 2.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in our forecast, and supply remains relatively flat. In 2025, we expect supply and demand to grow at similar rates, although inventories will build because supply will still slightly exceed demand in our forecast.
At the end of January 2024, 7% more natural gas was held in U.S. inventories than the five-year (2019–23) average for that time of year. We expect natural gas inventories to remain high relative to their previous five-year average throughout 2024 and 2025.
We forecast that most of our increase in U.S. natural gas supply will come from domestic production of associated natural gas, much of which is in the Permian region of western Texas and eastern New Mexico. As a result, if U.S. crude oil production is less than we expect, we will also see less natural gas production than we forecast. In late 2023, we described in a STEO Perspectives paper how different crude oil prices might affect crude oil and natural gas production in our short-term forecast.
Growth in natural gas demand is driven by domestic consumption in 2024, then exports in 2025
We expect natural gas consumption to grow in all sectors in 2024 except the industrial sector, where we expect consumption will decrease slightly. Sectoral changes in natural gas consumption depend mostly on the weather. Natural gas-fired power plants provide about 40% of U.S. electricity generation annually, so electricity demand from heating and air-conditioning equipment influences how much natural gas the electric power sector consumes. We expect about 11% more U.S. natural gas consumption for electricity in 2024 than the previous five-year average.
In the residential and commercial sectors, colder temperatures in the winter also affect direct natural gas consumption by heating equipment. We expect combined consumption in the residential and commercial sectors to be 5% higher in 2024 than in 2023 because January 2023 and December 2023 had warmer-than-average temperatures, leading to relatively low consumption of natural gas for space heating. Our assumptions for future weather largely reflect the trend of the past 30 years.
The mix of energy sources and technologies used to generate electricity also affects natural gas consumption in the electric power sector. As developers add more generating capacity from solar- and wind-powered generators, those generators’ incremental generation may reduce the need to dispatch natural gas-fired power plants. Changes in the timing and magnitude of new solar and wind capacity would also affect our forecast for natural gas consumption in the electric power sector.
U.S. natural gas exports depend on the timing of new LNG export terminals
The United States exported 20.8 Bcf/d of natural gas in 2023, 57% as liquefied natural gas (LNG). At the end of 2023, 11.4 Bcf/d of baseload nameplate LNG export capacity had been built in the United States, and we expect developers to add an additional 5.3 Bcf/d of new LNG export capacity by the end of 2025.
According to trade press reports and other sources, three new terminals will come on line in the second half of 2024 and in 2025. Any changes to the operational dates of the three new export terminals—Golden Pass and Corpus Christi Stage III in Texas and Plaquemines LNG in Louisiana—may notably affect our LNG export forecast and, in turn, our overall natural gas demand expectations.
Our forecast accounts for the recent U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) announcement to pause determinations on applications to export LNG to countries with which the United States does not have a free trade agreement. However, capacity additions through 2025 will not be affected because these projects have been fully authorized by DOE and are already under construction.
Natural gas prices at several price hubs in Europe and Asia remain relatively high over the forecast period compared with U.S. natural gas prices. We assume that U.S. LNG over the forecast period will continue to replace natural gas that had been exported from Russia by pipeline to Europe. Because global LNG liquefaction capacity additions will be limited in the next two years, demand for flexible LNG supplies, mainly from the United States, will increase to meet incremental growth in global demand.
Source: EIA
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Monday, 08 January 24
SEABORNE TRADE REACHES 12.4BN TONNES - CLARKSONS
China will establish a back-up coal production system by 2027 to stabilise prices and secure coal supply, the state planner said on Wednesday, even ...
Monday, 08 January 24
CAPESIZES START THE NEW YEAR ON POSITIVE NOTE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Capesize
This week the capsize market has been marked by a mix of activities and challenges. Despite a slow start following the Christmas and N ...
Friday, 05 January 24
MORGAN STANLEY SEES LOWER OIL PRICES IN 2024 ON OVERSUPPLY CONCERNS - REUTERS
Morgan Stanley sees Brent crude prices anchored near $80 per barrel in the first half in 2024 before declining towards the end of the year as it ex ...
Friday, 05 January 24
INDIA'S COAL OUTPUT RISES NEARLY 11 PC IN DEC TO 92.87 MT - PTI
India’s coal production increased by 10.75 per cent to 92.87 million tonne in December 2023 as compared to the year-ago period, an official s ...
Friday, 05 January 24
BANGLADESH’S 2023 COAL-FIRED POWER OUTPUT TRIPLED, EASING SHORTAGES - REUTERS
Bangladesh nearly tripled its coal-fired power output in 2023, a Reuters analysis of government data showed, helping it tide over the worst power s ...
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- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Planning Commission, India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Australian Coal Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
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