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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), in our February Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). We forecast increases in natural gas prices as demand for natural gas grows faster than supply in 2024.
In 2022 and 2023, increases in natural gas supply (domestic natural gas production and imports) exceeded the increases in natural gas demand (domestic consumption and exports). In 2024, we expect the reverse will be true: demand increases by 2.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in our forecast, and supply remains relatively flat. In 2025, we expect supply and demand to grow at similar rates, although inventories will build because supply will still slightly exceed demand in our forecast.
At the end of January 2024, 7% more natural gas was held in U.S. inventories than the five-year (2019–23) average for that time of year. We expect natural gas inventories to remain high relative to their previous five-year average throughout 2024 and 2025.
We forecast that most of our increase in U.S. natural gas supply will come from domestic production of associated natural gas, much of which is in the Permian region of western Texas and eastern New Mexico. As a result, if U.S. crude oil production is less than we expect, we will also see less natural gas production than we forecast. In late 2023, we described in a STEO Perspectives paper how different crude oil prices might affect crude oil and natural gas production in our short-term forecast.
Growth in natural gas demand is driven by domestic consumption in 2024, then exports in 2025
We expect natural gas consumption to grow in all sectors in 2024 except the industrial sector, where we expect consumption will decrease slightly. Sectoral changes in natural gas consumption depend mostly on the weather. Natural gas-fired power plants provide about 40% of U.S. electricity generation annually, so electricity demand from heating and air-conditioning equipment influences how much natural gas the electric power sector consumes. We expect about 11% more U.S. natural gas consumption for electricity in 2024 than the previous five-year average.
In the residential and commercial sectors, colder temperatures in the winter also affect direct natural gas consumption by heating equipment. We expect combined consumption in the residential and commercial sectors to be 5% higher in 2024 than in 2023 because January 2023 and December 2023 had warmer-than-average temperatures, leading to relatively low consumption of natural gas for space heating. Our assumptions for future weather largely reflect the trend of the past 30 years.
The mix of energy sources and technologies used to generate electricity also affects natural gas consumption in the electric power sector. As developers add more generating capacity from solar- and wind-powered generators, those generators’ incremental generation may reduce the need to dispatch natural gas-fired power plants. Changes in the timing and magnitude of new solar and wind capacity would also affect our forecast for natural gas consumption in the electric power sector.
U.S. natural gas exports depend on the timing of new LNG export terminals
The United States exported 20.8 Bcf/d of natural gas in 2023, 57% as liquefied natural gas (LNG). At the end of 2023, 11.4 Bcf/d of baseload nameplate LNG export capacity had been built in the United States, and we expect developers to add an additional 5.3 Bcf/d of new LNG export capacity by the end of 2025.
According to trade press reports and other sources, three new terminals will come on line in the second half of 2024 and in 2025. Any changes to the operational dates of the three new export terminals—Golden Pass and Corpus Christi Stage III in Texas and Plaquemines LNG in Louisiana—may notably affect our LNG export forecast and, in turn, our overall natural gas demand expectations.
Our forecast accounts for the recent U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) announcement to pause determinations on applications to export LNG to countries with which the United States does not have a free trade agreement. However, capacity additions through 2025 will not be affected because these projects have been fully authorized by DOE and are already under construction.
Natural gas prices at several price hubs in Europe and Asia remain relatively high over the forecast period compared with U.S. natural gas prices. We assume that U.S. LNG over the forecast period will continue to replace natural gas that had been exported from Russia by pipeline to Europe. Because global LNG liquefaction capacity additions will be limited in the next two years, demand for flexible LNG supplies, mainly from the United States, will increase to meet incremental growth in global demand.
Source: EIA
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Friday, 24 November 23
COAL IMPORTS TO INDIA IN OCTOBER 2023 REACHED HIGHEST LEVELS IN NEARLY A YEAR AND A HALF - VESSELSVALUE, VESON NAUTICAL
In October, coal imports to India reached 13.8 mt in October 2023, according to Oceanbolt, a Veson Nautical solution, the highest level since May 2 ...
Friday, 24 November 23
COAL SHIPMENTS TO ADVANCED ECONOMIES DOWN 17% SO FAR IN 2023 - BIMCO
In the first ten months of 2023, coal shipments to advanced economies fell by 17% y/y, as demand for electricity declined and the share of electric ...
Friday, 24 November 23
INTELLIGENT COAL MINES CONTRIBUTE TO IMPROVING SAFETY STANDARDS - CHINA DAILY
Mechanization, automation and intelligent upgrades have contributed to improved safety in coal mines, though the level of development of intelligen ...
Friday, 24 November 23
WHY AUSTRALIA'S COAL MINES ARE GETTING BIGGER - IEEFA
Australia’s largest coal mines are getting larger. Mines in New South Wales (NSW) are ramping up production following the state’s recov ...
Wednesday, 22 November 23
INDIA: GOVERNMENT PLANS 1.4 BILLION TONNE COAL OUTPUT BY 2027 - LIVEMINT
The Union coal ministry on Monday announced plans to increase India’s coal production to 1.404 billion tonne by 2027, with an eye to further ...
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- White Energy Company Limited
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PTC India Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Planning Commission, India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
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