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Tuesday, 13 February 24
WHAT IS THE OUTLOOK FOR THE NATURAL GAS SPOT PRICE IN 2024 AND 2025? EIA
We expect the U.S. benchmark Henry Hub natural gas spot price to average higher in 2024 and 2025 than in 2023, but to remain lower than $3.00 per million British thermal units (MMBtu), in our February Short-Term Energy Outlook (STEO). We forecast increases in natural gas prices as demand for natural gas grows faster than supply in 2024.
In 2022 and 2023, increases in natural gas supply (domestic natural gas production and imports) exceeded the increases in natural gas demand (domestic consumption and exports). In 2024, we expect the reverse will be true: demand increases by 2.3 billion cubic feet per day (Bcf/d) in our forecast, and supply remains relatively flat. In 2025, we expect supply and demand to grow at similar rates, although inventories will build because supply will still slightly exceed demand in our forecast.
At the end of January 2024, 7% more natural gas was held in U.S. inventories than the five-year (2019–23) average for that time of year. We expect natural gas inventories to remain high relative to their previous five-year average throughout 2024 and 2025.
We forecast that most of our increase in U.S. natural gas supply will come from domestic production of associated natural gas, much of which is in the Permian region of western Texas and eastern New Mexico. As a result, if U.S. crude oil production is less than we expect, we will also see less natural gas production than we forecast. In late 2023, we described in a STEO Perspectives paper how different crude oil prices might affect crude oil and natural gas production in our short-term forecast.
Growth in natural gas demand is driven by domestic consumption in 2024, then exports in 2025
We expect natural gas consumption to grow in all sectors in 2024 except the industrial sector, where we expect consumption will decrease slightly. Sectoral changes in natural gas consumption depend mostly on the weather. Natural gas-fired power plants provide about 40% of U.S. electricity generation annually, so electricity demand from heating and air-conditioning equipment influences how much natural gas the electric power sector consumes. We expect about 11% more U.S. natural gas consumption for electricity in 2024 than the previous five-year average.
In the residential and commercial sectors, colder temperatures in the winter also affect direct natural gas consumption by heating equipment. We expect combined consumption in the residential and commercial sectors to be 5% higher in 2024 than in 2023 because January 2023 and December 2023 had warmer-than-average temperatures, leading to relatively low consumption of natural gas for space heating. Our assumptions for future weather largely reflect the trend of the past 30 years.
The mix of energy sources and technologies used to generate electricity also affects natural gas consumption in the electric power sector. As developers add more generating capacity from solar- and wind-powered generators, those generators’ incremental generation may reduce the need to dispatch natural gas-fired power plants. Changes in the timing and magnitude of new solar and wind capacity would also affect our forecast for natural gas consumption in the electric power sector.
U.S. natural gas exports depend on the timing of new LNG export terminals
The United States exported 20.8 Bcf/d of natural gas in 2023, 57% as liquefied natural gas (LNG). At the end of 2023, 11.4 Bcf/d of baseload nameplate LNG export capacity had been built in the United States, and we expect developers to add an additional 5.3 Bcf/d of new LNG export capacity by the end of 2025.
According to trade press reports and other sources, three new terminals will come on line in the second half of 2024 and in 2025. Any changes to the operational dates of the three new export terminals—Golden Pass and Corpus Christi Stage III in Texas and Plaquemines LNG in Louisiana—may notably affect our LNG export forecast and, in turn, our overall natural gas demand expectations.
Our forecast accounts for the recent U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) announcement to pause determinations on applications to export LNG to countries with which the United States does not have a free trade agreement. However, capacity additions through 2025 will not be affected because these projects have been fully authorized by DOE and are already under construction.
Natural gas prices at several price hubs in Europe and Asia remain relatively high over the forecast period compared with U.S. natural gas prices. We assume that U.S. LNG over the forecast period will continue to replace natural gas that had been exported from Russia by pipeline to Europe. Because global LNG liquefaction capacity additions will be limited in the next two years, demand for flexible LNG supplies, mainly from the United States, will increase to meet incremental growth in global demand.
Source: EIA
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Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil a ...
Friday, 19 January 24
INDONESIA TARGETS 710 MLN METRIC TONS COAL OUTPUT IN 2024 AFTER RECORD 2023 - REUTERS
Indonesia, a major thermal coal exporter, aims to produce 710 million metric tons of coal in 2024, its mining minister said on Monday, after postin ...
Friday, 19 January 24
DRUMMOND COLOMBIA COAL OUTPUT ROSE 7.1% IN 2023 - REUTERS
Coal production from miner Drummond’s Colombia operations rose 7.1% in 2023 to 29.5 million metric tons, while exports declined by 2.6% to 27 ...
Friday, 19 January 24
CHINA'S 2023 COAL OUTPUT HITS RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal output reached a record high in 2023, data from the statistics bureau showed on Wednesday, amid an ongoing focus on energy secur ...
Monday, 08 January 24
KOSPO TO BUY 80000 MT OF INDONESIAN LOW CALORIFIC VALUE COAL FOR FEB 2024
Korea Southern Power Co., Ltd. (KOSPO), is inviting bids for the supply of Indonesian Low Calorific Value Coal from qualified suppliers for Korean ...
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- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Planning Commission, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
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