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Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
 Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil and gas, chemicals, and fertilisers, unless there are wider shipping – or production – disruptions in the region, Fitch Ratings says.
Heightened geopolitical risk, including the recent shipping disruptions, will maintain the oil price premium. However, without material disruptions to actual oil production, or a wider escalation of attacks to more vital oil transport routes in the region, we do not expect a strong upside to our USD80/bbl Brent price assumption for 2024, as there is material OPEC+ spare capacity.
Total oil shipments via the Suez Canal, the SUMED pipeline, and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait accounted for about 12% of global oil seaborne trade in 1H23, according to EIA. Houthi attacks have primarily been concentrated in the narrow strait of Bab-el-Mandeb. Northbound oil shipments via the Suez Canal and the SUMED pipeline are directed to Europe, mainly from Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Southbound flows are primarily Russian oil exports to China and India following the EU sanctions on Russian oil imports.
BP, Shell, QatarEnergy, and many shippers have halted transit through the Suez Canal, with some shippers re-routing around Africa. This may marginally tighten the oil and gas markets, albeit temporarily, as supply chains need to adjust to the alternative route taking about a fortnight longer, but we do not anticipate any material impact on prices.
With over 5 million barrels per day (MMbpd) of OPEC+ spare capacity as of January 2024, and balanced global oil supply and demand, we expect the global oil market to remain well-supplied in 2024. This will cushion any impact from potentially protracted or escalated disruptions. IEA forecasts global oil demand growth to moderate to 1.2MMbpd in 2024 due to reduced world economic growth and China’s slower oil consumption growth. We expect continued healthy supply growth, supported by non-OPEC producers.
Our TTF gas price assumption for 2024 of USD12/mcf is unchanged. About 8% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade is shipped via the Suez Canal. While LNG accounted for about 42% of EU gas imports in 2023, just under half of LNG imports came from the US, with Qatar accounting for 13%. We do not expect Qatar LNG re-routing around Africa in the short term, nor redirecting of US LNG flows to Europe and Qatar LNG to Asia, even if tensions in the Red Sea continue to affect supply.
Disruptions spreading to the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil and gas transport route that shipped 20.5 MMbpd of oil in 1H23 (27% of global seaborne oil trade), or the crisis affecting oil and gas production volumes, would create more tangible repercussions for global oil and gas markets, with more sustained price increases.
Market conditions in European chemicals, which are dependent on Asian imports, have already fallen from top-of-the-cycle to below mid-cycle, driven by the slowdown in the global economy and destocking across the chemical supply chain. The sector may be further affected by supply disruptions due to delayed shipments via the Red Sea.
Fertiliser exports through the Red Sea account for about 7% of the global potash market, and around 5% of the world phosphate rock market. There have been few reports of fertiliser vessels being affected by attacks, while fertiliser exporters Israel’s ICL and Jordan’s APC reported normal operations from their Red Sea ports of Eilat and Aqaba, according to CRU. Shipping costs account for about 10% of fertiliser prices, and therefore rising freight rates will add pressure on profitability.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 13 December 22
YANCOAL AUSTRALIA TO PREPAY $459 MLN DEBT AS RECORD COAL PRICES BOOST CASHFLOWS - REUTERS
Coal miner Yancoal Australia Ltd. said on Friday it intended to prepay $459 million of its debt on or around Dec. 16, as elevated coal prices were ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
WHY COAL LEADS THE RISE IN COMMODITIES THIS YEAR - MARKETWATCH
This year marked a resurgence for coal, often known — and loathed — by environmentalists as the dirtiest energy source, with prices mor ...
Thursday, 08 December 22
BIMCO TO REVISE WAR RISK CLAUSES
Work to revise the BIMCO War Cancellation Clause 2004, the BIMCO War Risks Clause for Time Chartering 2013 (CONWARTIME 2013) and the BIMCO War Risk ...
Thursday, 08 December 22
COAL ROYALTY PAYMENTS BOOST AUSTRALIAN STATE'S BUDGET FORECAST - REUTERS
Australia’s Queensland state on Wednesday forecast a record surplus for the current financial year, largely driven by higher royalty payments ...
Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if t ...
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- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- The University of Queensland
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
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