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Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
 Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil and gas, chemicals, and fertilisers, unless there are wider shipping – or production – disruptions in the region, Fitch Ratings says.
Heightened geopolitical risk, including the recent shipping disruptions, will maintain the oil price premium. However, without material disruptions to actual oil production, or a wider escalation of attacks to more vital oil transport routes in the region, we do not expect a strong upside to our USD80/bbl Brent price assumption for 2024, as there is material OPEC+ spare capacity.
Total oil shipments via the Suez Canal, the SUMED pipeline, and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait accounted for about 12% of global oil seaborne trade in 1H23, according to EIA. Houthi attacks have primarily been concentrated in the narrow strait of Bab-el-Mandeb. Northbound oil shipments via the Suez Canal and the SUMED pipeline are directed to Europe, mainly from Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Southbound flows are primarily Russian oil exports to China and India following the EU sanctions on Russian oil imports.
BP, Shell, QatarEnergy, and many shippers have halted transit through the Suez Canal, with some shippers re-routing around Africa. This may marginally tighten the oil and gas markets, albeit temporarily, as supply chains need to adjust to the alternative route taking about a fortnight longer, but we do not anticipate any material impact on prices.
With over 5 million barrels per day (MMbpd) of OPEC+ spare capacity as of January 2024, and balanced global oil supply and demand, we expect the global oil market to remain well-supplied in 2024. This will cushion any impact from potentially protracted or escalated disruptions. IEA forecasts global oil demand growth to moderate to 1.2MMbpd in 2024 due to reduced world economic growth and China’s slower oil consumption growth. We expect continued healthy supply growth, supported by non-OPEC producers.
Our TTF gas price assumption for 2024 of USD12/mcf is unchanged. About 8% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade is shipped via the Suez Canal. While LNG accounted for about 42% of EU gas imports in 2023, just under half of LNG imports came from the US, with Qatar accounting for 13%. We do not expect Qatar LNG re-routing around Africa in the short term, nor redirecting of US LNG flows to Europe and Qatar LNG to Asia, even if tensions in the Red Sea continue to affect supply.
Disruptions spreading to the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil and gas transport route that shipped 20.5 MMbpd of oil in 1H23 (27% of global seaborne oil trade), or the crisis affecting oil and gas production volumes, would create more tangible repercussions for global oil and gas markets, with more sustained price increases.
Market conditions in European chemicals, which are dependent on Asian imports, have already fallen from top-of-the-cycle to below mid-cycle, driven by the slowdown in the global economy and destocking across the chemical supply chain. The sector may be further affected by supply disruptions due to delayed shipments via the Red Sea.
Fertiliser exports through the Red Sea account for about 7% of the global potash market, and around 5% of the world phosphate rock market. There have been few reports of fertiliser vessels being affected by attacks, while fertiliser exporters Israel’s ICL and Jordan’s APC reported normal operations from their Red Sea ports of Eilat and Aqaba, according to CRU. Shipping costs account for about 10% of fertiliser prices, and therefore rising freight rates will add pressure on profitability.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Thursday, 15 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While observing the ship repair market very close to the end of the year, we are confident that shipyards worldwide are entering a new era. The nex ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
STRONG COAL PRICES SUPPORT ROBUST EARNINGS AT INDONESIAN COAL MINERS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects cash flow generation at Indonesian coal miners to remain strong in 2023, based on its forecast for coal prices to remain high ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
BIMCO CII CLAUSE FINALLY RELEASED: DOES IT MAKE ANY SENSE OF CCI? - WFW
WHAT IS CII?
The new International Maritime Organisation’s (“IMO’s”) Carbon Intensity Indicator (“CII”) cer ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
COAL BASE RAMPS UP ENERGY SUPPLY FOR WINTER NEEDS - XINHUA
Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China’s leading coal production base, has kicked its production into high gear to meet heating needs as col ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
AUSTRALIA TO CAP PRICES OF COAL, GAS TO DRIVE DOWN ENERGY BILLS - REUTERS
Australia will cap coal and gas prices for a year in a bid to shave utility bills for households and businesses hit by soaring costs because of the ...
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- PTC India Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- White Energy Company Limited
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Australian Coal Association
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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