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Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
 Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil and gas, chemicals, and fertilisers, unless there are wider shipping – or production – disruptions in the region, Fitch Ratings says.
Heightened geopolitical risk, including the recent shipping disruptions, will maintain the oil price premium. However, without material disruptions to actual oil production, or a wider escalation of attacks to more vital oil transport routes in the region, we do not expect a strong upside to our USD80/bbl Brent price assumption for 2024, as there is material OPEC+ spare capacity.
Total oil shipments via the Suez Canal, the SUMED pipeline, and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait accounted for about 12% of global oil seaborne trade in 1H23, according to EIA. Houthi attacks have primarily been concentrated in the narrow strait of Bab-el-Mandeb. Northbound oil shipments via the Suez Canal and the SUMED pipeline are directed to Europe, mainly from Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Southbound flows are primarily Russian oil exports to China and India following the EU sanctions on Russian oil imports.
BP, Shell, QatarEnergy, and many shippers have halted transit through the Suez Canal, with some shippers re-routing around Africa. This may marginally tighten the oil and gas markets, albeit temporarily, as supply chains need to adjust to the alternative route taking about a fortnight longer, but we do not anticipate any material impact on prices.
With over 5 million barrels per day (MMbpd) of OPEC+ spare capacity as of January 2024, and balanced global oil supply and demand, we expect the global oil market to remain well-supplied in 2024. This will cushion any impact from potentially protracted or escalated disruptions. IEA forecasts global oil demand growth to moderate to 1.2MMbpd in 2024 due to reduced world economic growth and China’s slower oil consumption growth. We expect continued healthy supply growth, supported by non-OPEC producers.
Our TTF gas price assumption for 2024 of USD12/mcf is unchanged. About 8% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade is shipped via the Suez Canal. While LNG accounted for about 42% of EU gas imports in 2023, just under half of LNG imports came from the US, with Qatar accounting for 13%. We do not expect Qatar LNG re-routing around Africa in the short term, nor redirecting of US LNG flows to Europe and Qatar LNG to Asia, even if tensions in the Red Sea continue to affect supply.
Disruptions spreading to the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil and gas transport route that shipped 20.5 MMbpd of oil in 1H23 (27% of global seaborne oil trade), or the crisis affecting oil and gas production volumes, would create more tangible repercussions for global oil and gas markets, with more sustained price increases.
Market conditions in European chemicals, which are dependent on Asian imports, have already fallen from top-of-the-cycle to below mid-cycle, driven by the slowdown in the global economy and destocking across the chemical supply chain. The sector may be further affected by supply disruptions due to delayed shipments via the Red Sea.
Fertiliser exports through the Red Sea account for about 7% of the global potash market, and around 5% of the world phosphate rock market. There have been few reports of fertiliser vessels being affected by attacks, while fertiliser exporters Israel’s ICL and Jordan’s APC reported normal operations from their Red Sea ports of Eilat and Aqaba, according to CRU. Shipping costs account for about 10% of fertiliser prices, and therefore rising freight rates will add pressure on profitability.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Thursday, 22 December 22
CHINA TIGHTENS VERIFICATION OF SHIPS’ ENERGY CONSUMPTION DATA - GARD
From 22 December 2022, ships trading to Chinese ports must record their energy consumption data in accordance with the requirements of their Ship E ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
AN OVERVIEW OF THE LNG MARKET - VESSELSVALUE
LNG values have continued to strengthen, spurred by skyrocketing earnings that have surpassed last year’s record breaking peaks. In November, ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
COKING COAL SLUMPS AS TALKS ON AUSTRALIA-CHINA TRADE RIFT LOOM - REUTERS
Chinese coking coal futures dropped more than 3 per cent on Tuesday (Dec 20), extending losses, as supply of the steelmaking input might increase i ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
COAL AND GAS PRICE CAPS MAY COMPOUND POLITICAL RISK FOR AUSTRALIAN CORPORATES - FITCH RATINGS
Australia’s introduction of temporary price caps on domestic sales of gas and coal used for electricity generation will probably have limited ...
Monday, 19 December 22
ENERGY CRISIS FUELS COAL COMEBACK IN GERMANY - REUTERS
Coal has made a comeback in Germany this year, as Europe’s largest economy turns to the dirty fuel to power it through an energy crisis.
...
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- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- White Energy Company Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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