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Thursday, 25 January 24
RED SEA SHIPPING DISRUPTIONS KEEP GEOPOLITICAL PREMIUM FOR COMMODITIES - FITCH RATINGS
 Shipping disruptions and re-routing away from the Red Sea will maintain the geopolitical premium in the main commodity markets, including for oil and gas, chemicals, and fertilisers, unless there are wider shipping – or production – disruptions in the region, Fitch Ratings says.
Heightened geopolitical risk, including the recent shipping disruptions, will maintain the oil price premium. However, without material disruptions to actual oil production, or a wider escalation of attacks to more vital oil transport routes in the region, we do not expect a strong upside to our USD80/bbl Brent price assumption for 2024, as there is material OPEC+ spare capacity.
Total oil shipments via the Suez Canal, the SUMED pipeline, and the Bab-el-Mandeb Strait accounted for about 12% of global oil seaborne trade in 1H23, according to EIA. Houthi attacks have primarily been concentrated in the narrow strait of Bab-el-Mandeb. Northbound oil shipments via the Suez Canal and the SUMED pipeline are directed to Europe, mainly from Saudi Arabia and Iraq. Southbound flows are primarily Russian oil exports to China and India following the EU sanctions on Russian oil imports.
BP, Shell, QatarEnergy, and many shippers have halted transit through the Suez Canal, with some shippers re-routing around Africa. This may marginally tighten the oil and gas markets, albeit temporarily, as supply chains need to adjust to the alternative route taking about a fortnight longer, but we do not anticipate any material impact on prices.
With over 5 million barrels per day (MMbpd) of OPEC+ spare capacity as of January 2024, and balanced global oil supply and demand, we expect the global oil market to remain well-supplied in 2024. This will cushion any impact from potentially protracted or escalated disruptions. IEA forecasts global oil demand growth to moderate to 1.2MMbpd in 2024 due to reduced world economic growth and China’s slower oil consumption growth. We expect continued healthy supply growth, supported by non-OPEC producers.
Our TTF gas price assumption for 2024 of USD12/mcf is unchanged. About 8% of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) trade is shipped via the Suez Canal. While LNG accounted for about 42% of EU gas imports in 2023, just under half of LNG imports came from the US, with Qatar accounting for 13%. We do not expect Qatar LNG re-routing around Africa in the short term, nor redirecting of US LNG flows to Europe and Qatar LNG to Asia, even if tensions in the Red Sea continue to affect supply.
Disruptions spreading to the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil and gas transport route that shipped 20.5 MMbpd of oil in 1H23 (27% of global seaborne oil trade), or the crisis affecting oil and gas production volumes, would create more tangible repercussions for global oil and gas markets, with more sustained price increases.
Market conditions in European chemicals, which are dependent on Asian imports, have already fallen from top-of-the-cycle to below mid-cycle, driven by the slowdown in the global economy and destocking across the chemical supply chain. The sector may be further affected by supply disruptions due to delayed shipments via the Red Sea.
Fertiliser exports through the Red Sea account for about 7% of the global potash market, and around 5% of the world phosphate rock market. There have been few reports of fertiliser vessels being affected by attacks, while fertiliser exporters Israel’s ICL and Jordan’s APC reported normal operations from their Red Sea ports of Eilat and Aqaba, according to CRU. Shipping costs account for about 10% of fertiliser prices, and therefore rising freight rates will add pressure on profitability.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 06 September 24
REBOUND IN OIL DEMAND COULD LIFT MARKET IN LATTER HALF OF 2024 - BIMCO
Supply/demand
Based on a strong second half demand, the supply/balance is forecast to strengthen in 2024 but weaken slightly in 2025 as n ...
Friday, 06 September 24
GLOBAL SEABORNE LNG TRADE HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE LAST YEAR - BANCHERO COSTA
Global seaborne LNG trade has continued to increase last year, helped also by the events in Ukraine which forced Europe to diversify away from Russ ...
Wednesday, 28 August 24
SEABORNE COAL IMPORTS INTO INDIA INCREASED BY +9.9% Y-O-Y TO 146.6 MLN T - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace over the past year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels said Banchero Costa Research in its lates ...
Tuesday, 06 August 24
EXERCISE CAUTION WITH AMMONIA SWITCH - BALTIC EXCHANGE
A new study from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) has thrown a spanner into the plan to transition ships from diesel fuel to ammonia ...
Friday, 02 August 24
ENERGY MARKET DEVELOPMENTS: COAL AND NATURAL GAS PRICES REACH RECORD HIGHS - WORLD BANK
The recent surge in natural gas and coal prices has been so swift that the main benchmarks were roughly three times higher in 2022Q2 compared to a ...
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The University of Queensland
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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