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Saturday, 11 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Uncertainty over the recovery of Chinese demand, demand destruction in Europe, as well as weather conditions will pivot the LNG market this summer. Global LNG supply is expected to increase by 1% y-o-y this summer, to 200 million MT. Meanwhile, global LNG demand is seen at 192 million MT, also 1% higher y-o-y.
In China, we should expect to witness a significant boost in the country’s gas demand from 2Q, with economic output returning to normal by 3Q. More specifically, China’s LNG imports are forecast to climb 17% y-o-y this summer. The incremental demand will primarily come from the industrial sector rather than the power sector, where the elevated prices have decreased utilization hours at gas plants. Spot purchases, however, will not increase proportionally with the demand, as they will be capped by the existing high volumes of long-term contracted LNG cargoes. However, a faster recovery in China’s gas demand could snap a significant volume of flexible LNG cargoes available for Europe, especially if Chinese buyers reduce resales of contracted LNG.
Yet, China’s increased LNG imports will be offset by lower demand in Japan and South Korea due to higher electricity generation from nuclear power plants and robust LNG inventories. Consequently, Asia’s total contract supply could exceed its overall demand. With North Asian demand for spot LNG likely to remain muted, cargoes will flow to Europe at higher levels than last year, making up for lost Russian pipeline volumes.
Europe's LNG demand is 71% higher than its contracted supply, therefore the bloc will need to attract 76% of flexible LNG supplies this summer. Europe is currently forecast to completely fill its gas storage by the end of the summer, assuming 10-year average weather. More specifically, the bloc’s gas storage could climb to 12 billion cbm by end of October, which will be more than it needs to meet its 90% storage target. Gas balances, however, will be defined by demand destruction in all sectors (industrial, commercial, and residential). In the scenario of healthy demand, European inventories could hover close to the 80% storage target by the end of September. The shutdown of coal plants in Germany this summer for planned maintenance could provide a boost in gas demand for power generation. However, given the current uncertainty of demand destruction, a more accurate projection could be made when the policymakers will decide on the possible continuation of the emergency demand-reduction measures, effective until the end of March.
After accounting for demand above destination-fixed contracts for Europe and Asia, the market will likely be left with a net 12 million MT of flexible volumes to cater to summer weather variations against base-case forecasts for both regions. A hot summer in North Asia (China, Japan, and South Korea) would result in about 2 million MT of incremental LNG demand that will be diverted away from Europe over the season. A stronger-than-expected Chinese economic recovery could add to flexible cargo needs from Asia and take away some of this available spot volume.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 09 November 23
GREEK AND CHINESE COMPANIES OWN 34% OF THE GLOBAL FLEET’S CARGO CAPACITY - BIMCO
“The global fleet of cargo carrying ships consists of around 61,000 ships with a deadweight capacity of about 2,200 million tonnes. The ships ...
Monday, 23 October 23
CHINA SEPT COAL OUTPUT HITS SIX-MONTH HIGH ON RISING POWER DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s September coal output rose 0.4% from August to the highest level since March, official data showed on Wednesday, on rising power dema ...
Monday, 23 October 23
INDIA COAL INVENTORIES DROP AT FASTEST PACE IN TWO YEARS, BOOSTING IMPORTS - REUTERS
Coal inventories at Indian power plants in the first half of October fell at their fastest rate in two years, an analysis of government data showed ...
Tuesday, 19 September 23
LNG SHIPPING STOCKS: THE ASIAN GROWTH UP-INDICES
Last week, the UP World LNG Shipping Index (UPI) gained 3.81 points or 2.51%, closing at 155.85 points. This index tracks the performance of LNG sh ...
Sunday, 10 September 23
GOLDMAN SACHS PREDICTS OIL PRICE TO HIT $100 ON OPEC CUTS - YAHOO FINANCE
Oil supply cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia could lead to Brent crude jumping as high as $107 a barrel in 2024, Goldman Sachs Commodities Research h ...
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- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
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- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
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- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
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- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The University of Queensland
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- Aditya Birla Group - India
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- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
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- Australian Coal Association
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- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
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- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
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- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
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- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
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- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Parliament of New Zealand
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