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Saturday, 11 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Uncertainty over the recovery of Chinese demand, demand destruction in Europe, as well as weather conditions will pivot the LNG market this summer. Global LNG supply is expected to increase by 1% y-o-y this summer, to 200 million MT. Meanwhile, global LNG demand is seen at 192 million MT, also 1% higher y-o-y.
In China, we should expect to witness a significant boost in the country’s gas demand from 2Q, with economic output returning to normal by 3Q. More specifically, China’s LNG imports are forecast to climb 17% y-o-y this summer. The incremental demand will primarily come from the industrial sector rather than the power sector, where the elevated prices have decreased utilization hours at gas plants. Spot purchases, however, will not increase proportionally with the demand, as they will be capped by the existing high volumes of long-term contracted LNG cargoes. However, a faster recovery in China’s gas demand could snap a significant volume of flexible LNG cargoes available for Europe, especially if Chinese buyers reduce resales of contracted LNG.
Yet, China’s increased LNG imports will be offset by lower demand in Japan and South Korea due to higher electricity generation from nuclear power plants and robust LNG inventories. Consequently, Asia’s total contract supply could exceed its overall demand. With North Asian demand for spot LNG likely to remain muted, cargoes will flow to Europe at higher levels than last year, making up for lost Russian pipeline volumes.
Europe's LNG demand is 71% higher than its contracted supply, therefore the bloc will need to attract 76% of flexible LNG supplies this summer. Europe is currently forecast to completely fill its gas storage by the end of the summer, assuming 10-year average weather. More specifically, the bloc’s gas storage could climb to 12 billion cbm by end of October, which will be more than it needs to meet its 90% storage target. Gas balances, however, will be defined by demand destruction in all sectors (industrial, commercial, and residential). In the scenario of healthy demand, European inventories could hover close to the 80% storage target by the end of September. The shutdown of coal plants in Germany this summer for planned maintenance could provide a boost in gas demand for power generation. However, given the current uncertainty of demand destruction, a more accurate projection could be made when the policymakers will decide on the possible continuation of the emergency demand-reduction measures, effective until the end of March.
After accounting for demand above destination-fixed contracts for Europe and Asia, the market will likely be left with a net 12 million MT of flexible volumes to cater to summer weather variations against base-case forecasts for both regions. A hot summer in North Asia (China, Japan, and South Korea) would result in about 2 million MT of incremental LNG demand that will be diverted away from Europe over the season. A stronger-than-expected Chinese economic recovery could add to flexible cargo needs from Asia and take away some of this available spot volume.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 14 November 23
CHINA'S BELT AND ROAD INITIATIVE TURNS AWAY FROM COAL - WOOD MACKENZIE
Ambitious, contentious and big spending, China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) is 10 years old. In that time, China has splashed more than U ...
Friday, 10 November 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: OIL UNDER PRESSURE - ING
Energy – Brent plummets
The oil market came under significant pressure yesterday. ICE Brent settled 4.19% lower on the day and ...
Friday, 10 November 23
COAL USE AT U.S. POWER PLANTS CONTINUES DOWNWARD SPIRAL; FULL IMPACT ON MINES TO BE FELT IN 2024 - IEEFA
This year, the use of coal by the U.S.’s power producers has been so anemic that the fuel has not achieved a 20% market share in any month so ...
Friday, 10 November 23
INDIA: NATIONAL COAL INDEX RISES 3.83 POINTS IN SEPTEMBER AMID HIGHER DEMAND - LIVEMINT
The National Coal Index (NCI) rose 3.83 points to 143.91 in September amid growing demand for coal.
The union coal ministry on Tuesd ...
Thursday, 09 November 23
WE'RE PRODUCING TOO MUCH COAL, OIL AND GAS, REPORT SAYS - WSJ
World leaders pledged in 2015 to reduce emissions in a combined effort to limit climate change.
Now they are stepping up production ...
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- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
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- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
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- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
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- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
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- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
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- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
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- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
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- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
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- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
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- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
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- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
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- Minerals Council of Australia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
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- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
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- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
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- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
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- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
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- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
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- White Energy Company Limited
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- Planning Commission, India
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- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
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- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
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