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Saturday, 11 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Uncertainty over the recovery of Chinese demand, demand destruction in Europe, as well as weather conditions will pivot the LNG market this summer. Global LNG supply is expected to increase by 1% y-o-y this summer, to 200 million MT. Meanwhile, global LNG demand is seen at 192 million MT, also 1% higher y-o-y.
In China, we should expect to witness a significant boost in the country’s gas demand from 2Q, with economic output returning to normal by 3Q. More specifically, China’s LNG imports are forecast to climb 17% y-o-y this summer. The incremental demand will primarily come from the industrial sector rather than the power sector, where the elevated prices have decreased utilization hours at gas plants. Spot purchases, however, will not increase proportionally with the demand, as they will be capped by the existing high volumes of long-term contracted LNG cargoes. However, a faster recovery in China’s gas demand could snap a significant volume of flexible LNG cargoes available for Europe, especially if Chinese buyers reduce resales of contracted LNG.
Yet, China’s increased LNG imports will be offset by lower demand in Japan and South Korea due to higher electricity generation from nuclear power plants and robust LNG inventories. Consequently, Asia’s total contract supply could exceed its overall demand. With North Asian demand for spot LNG likely to remain muted, cargoes will flow to Europe at higher levels than last year, making up for lost Russian pipeline volumes.
Europe's LNG demand is 71% higher than its contracted supply, therefore the bloc will need to attract 76% of flexible LNG supplies this summer. Europe is currently forecast to completely fill its gas storage by the end of the summer, assuming 10-year average weather. More specifically, the bloc’s gas storage could climb to 12 billion cbm by end of October, which will be more than it needs to meet its 90% storage target. Gas balances, however, will be defined by demand destruction in all sectors (industrial, commercial, and residential). In the scenario of healthy demand, European inventories could hover close to the 80% storage target by the end of September. The shutdown of coal plants in Germany this summer for planned maintenance could provide a boost in gas demand for power generation. However, given the current uncertainty of demand destruction, a more accurate projection could be made when the policymakers will decide on the possible continuation of the emergency demand-reduction measures, effective until the end of March.
After accounting for demand above destination-fixed contracts for Europe and Asia, the market will likely be left with a net 12 million MT of flexible volumes to cater to summer weather variations against base-case forecasts for both regions. A hot summer in North Asia (China, Japan, and South Korea) would result in about 2 million MT of incremental LNG demand that will be diverted away from Europe over the season. A stronger-than-expected Chinese economic recovery could add to flexible cargo needs from Asia and take away some of this available spot volume.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 22 November 23
INDIA: GOVERNMENT PLANS 1.4 BILLION TONNE COAL OUTPUT BY 2027 - LIVEMINT
The Union coal ministry on Monday announced plans to increase India’s coal production to 1.404 billion tonne by 2027, with an eye to further ...
Wednesday, 22 November 23
OBLIGATION. INDONESIA AIMS TO START COLLECTING LEVIES FROM COAL MINERS IN JANUARY - REUTERS
Indonesia plans to start collecting levies from coal miners in January to be used to compensate miners who sell coal to the state utility at lower ...
Tuesday, 21 November 23
INDIAN COAL POWER PLANTS’ CAPACITY UTILISATION WILL IMPROVE TO 65% THIS FISCAL: - CRISIL
Coal-based thermal power units’ plant load factor (PLF) or capacity utilisation will improve to 65 percent in the current fiscal year despite ...
Tuesday, 14 November 23
CAPITAL PRODUCT PARTNERS L.P. ANNOUNCES TRANSFORMATIVE TRANSACTION INCLUDING THE ACQUISITION OF 11 NEWBUILD LNG CARRIERS FOR $3.1 BILLION
Capital Product Partners L.P. announced that it has entered into an umbrella agreement (the “Umbrella Agreement”) with Capital Maritime ...
Tuesday, 14 November 23
COAL INDIA BEATS Q2 PROFIT VIEW ON HIGH POWER DEMAND AMID WEAK MONSOON - REUTERS
Coal India on Friday reported better-than-expected second-quarter profit, helped by high power demand and boosted production amid a weak monsoon.
...
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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- Planning Commission, India
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- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
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- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
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- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
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- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
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- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- The University of Queensland
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
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