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Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if this negative momentum will remain in 2023, pressuring the Dry Baltic index. While the easing of Chinese Covid strict policies which coupled with the 70% coal reliance of North China for its heating boiler amidst the upcoming colder winter can trigger a demand boost for coal, we will focus on some adverse fundamentals which point to pessimistic expectations for its 2023 seaborne coal imports.
Domestic coal output on a rise.
Chinese total coal output of 4.12 billion mt in 2021 contributed around 92% of its total consumptions with 2021 imports standing at 323 million mt. In 2022, domestic production during the first three quarters stood 3.32 billion mt, an increase of +14% compared to 2021 first 3 quarters while the 2022 October output of 370m mt is up by +13m mt compared to October 2021 output. While coal represents almost 55% of China’s energy consumption and half of coal plant expansions (+197GW) are attributed to China, a growth of around 27% of its domestic coal mining capacity could cover this increase in demand. Indeed, 559m mt of coal mines are under construction and proposed as of January 2022 in China, representing 29% of the global share followed by Australia, India, and Russia. In the short-term, a shift in local production is strengthened by policymakers' decision to support national foreign reserves while the appreciation of US$ is leading to higher coal prices for Chinese power plants thus diminishing their profit margin. In addition to that, amidst the current geopolitical tension and its effect on global trade with increases materializing across all the energy commodities globally, we believe that China will keep focusing on its national power security by keeping its inventory levels high through its local production. Indeed, current levels standing at 326.7 million mt as of the end of September which is +45% above the historical average of 225m mt and +217m mt compared to the same period last year. Covid-zero Policy will determine the growth of coal demand which however remains subdued. While Covid-19 policy relaxation has begun we do not expect that a full re-opening will take place no earlier than the end of Q12023 further trimming its coal demand.
New trade patterns in question.
China's main source of coal is Indonesia with 133 million mt (98% thermal coal) being delivered so far in 2022, followed by Russia and Mongolia with 54.01m mt (68% thermal coal) and 22.38m mt (85% metallurgical coal) respectively. While Indonesia will remain the largest supplier of coal to China yet with a fall of -16.19% so far in the first ten months of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021, the rest two nations have significantly increased their market share with Mongolia and Russia posting an increase of +60% and +12.8% respectively. While ton-mile demand is benefited from cheaper Russian coal due to European sanctions and the need to alter its trade partners, an increase in Mongolian exports could absorb a share of Russian coking coal exports especially given the recent Russian transport infrastructure limitation which leads to delays in loading and arrivals. Having said that, the new Mongolian 233km Tavan Tolgoi rail line which is estimated to cut transport costs to around US$8 per tonne compared to truck transport costs, could point towards this shift. According to the president of Mongolia, this new rail line could increase coal exports to China to 50m tonnes compared to 22.38 million so far in 2022 and its record 36.24 million tonnes in 2018. In addition to this shift, other seaborne sources of metallurgical coal namely the US, Indonesia, and Canada could see their exports further decreasing from Mongolian ones. As far as the Mongolian thermal coal exports are concerned, an increase of 61% (+1.23 million mt) has materialized during the first ten months of 2022 compared to the whole of 2021. With rail infrastructure expansions, Mongolian thermal coal exports could also increase further. The real question is, does China needs all this coal? If not, based on this year's demand, decisions will be made based on costs and transport delays and in that scenario, Mongolian exports could benefit further.
By Yiannis Parganas,
Head of Research Department
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 03 February 22
COAL SHORTAGE NOW AT ALARMING LEVELS, SAY ALUMINIUM PRODUCERS - IANS
With no relief in sight despite coal stocks running critically low and production disruptions looming across the Indian aluminium sector, the Alumi ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
HIGH COKING COAL PRICES PROVIDE GLIMPSE INTO STEELMAKING'S FUTURE - MCKINSEY
Last year was a volatile one in global commodity markets. Demand for coking coal, an essential raw material in the production of steel, was extreme ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
INDONESIA'S RESTRICTIONS ON COMMODITIES RATTLE MARKETS, MORE MOVES LIKELY - REUTERS
In just the first month of this year, Indonesian policymakers have rattled global markets with restrictions on some of its biggest commodities expo ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
CHINA'S TOP COAL PRODUCER FORECASTS 28 PCT PROFIT GROWTH IN 2021 - XINHUA
China Shenhua Energy Company Limited, one of the country’s biggest coal producers, said its net profits are expected to jump by 28 percent in ...
Wednesday, 02 February 22
COAL STORAGE IN CHINA’S POWER PLANTS NEAR RECORD HIGHS - XINHUA
Coal inflows into China’s power plants have picked up, bringing their coal storage to near record highs, the National Development and Reform ...
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- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- The University of Queensland
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- PTC India Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
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