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Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if this negative momentum will remain in 2023, pressuring the Dry Baltic index. While the easing of Chinese Covid strict policies which coupled with the 70% coal reliance of North China for its heating boiler amidst the upcoming colder winter can trigger a demand boost for coal, we will focus on some adverse fundamentals which point to pessimistic expectations for its 2023 seaborne coal imports.
Domestic coal output on a rise.
Chinese total coal output of 4.12 billion mt in 2021 contributed around 92% of its total consumptions with 2021 imports standing at 323 million mt. In 2022, domestic production during the first three quarters stood 3.32 billion mt, an increase of +14% compared to 2021 first 3 quarters while the 2022 October output of 370m mt is up by +13m mt compared to October 2021 output. While coal represents almost 55% of China’s energy consumption and half of coal plant expansions (+197GW) are attributed to China, a growth of around 27% of its domestic coal mining capacity could cover this increase in demand. Indeed, 559m mt of coal mines are under construction and proposed as of January 2022 in China, representing 29% of the global share followed by Australia, India, and Russia. In the short-term, a shift in local production is strengthened by policymakers' decision to support national foreign reserves while the appreciation of US$ is leading to higher coal prices for Chinese power plants thus diminishing their profit margin. In addition to that, amidst the current geopolitical tension and its effect on global trade with increases materializing across all the energy commodities globally, we believe that China will keep focusing on its national power security by keeping its inventory levels high through its local production. Indeed, current levels standing at 326.7 million mt as of the end of September which is +45% above the historical average of 225m mt and +217m mt compared to the same period last year. Covid-zero Policy will determine the growth of coal demand which however remains subdued. While Covid-19 policy relaxation has begun we do not expect that a full re-opening will take place no earlier than the end of Q12023 further trimming its coal demand.
New trade patterns in question.
China's main source of coal is Indonesia with 133 million mt (98% thermal coal) being delivered so far in 2022, followed by Russia and Mongolia with 54.01m mt (68% thermal coal) and 22.38m mt (85% metallurgical coal) respectively. While Indonesia will remain the largest supplier of coal to China yet with a fall of -16.19% so far in the first ten months of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021, the rest two nations have significantly increased their market share with Mongolia and Russia posting an increase of +60% and +12.8% respectively. While ton-mile demand is benefited from cheaper Russian coal due to European sanctions and the need to alter its trade partners, an increase in Mongolian exports could absorb a share of Russian coking coal exports especially given the recent Russian transport infrastructure limitation which leads to delays in loading and arrivals. Having said that, the new Mongolian 233km Tavan Tolgoi rail line which is estimated to cut transport costs to around US$8 per tonne compared to truck transport costs, could point towards this shift. According to the president of Mongolia, this new rail line could increase coal exports to China to 50m tonnes compared to 22.38 million so far in 2022 and its record 36.24 million tonnes in 2018. In addition to this shift, other seaborne sources of metallurgical coal namely the US, Indonesia, and Canada could see their exports further decreasing from Mongolian ones. As far as the Mongolian thermal coal exports are concerned, an increase of 61% (+1.23 million mt) has materialized during the first ten months of 2022 compared to the whole of 2021. With rail infrastructure expansions, Mongolian thermal coal exports could also increase further. The real question is, does China needs all this coal? If not, based on this year's demand, decisions will be made based on costs and transport delays and in that scenario, Mongolian exports could benefit further.
By Yiannis Parganas,
Head of Research Department
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 09 February 22
OIL PRICES: "IT'S GOING TO BE VERY EASY" TO GET TO $100/BARREL, ANALYST SAYS - YAHOO FINANCE
Energy and oil prices have been on fire over the last six months — and expect them to go higher, says one analyst.
“For ...
Wednesday, 09 February 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Iron ore prices have jumped significantly in the week prior to the Chinese New Year with traders and producers stocking up on raw materials. China& ...
Wednesday, 09 February 22
FEBRUARY HBA HITS RECORD HIGH IN 2022 ON INDONESIA’S EXPORT BAN IN JANUARY, WORSEN SUPPLY, UKRAINE TENSIONS
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for February in a steep climb from January 2022.
As expected in January the Indonesia ...
Wednesday, 09 February 22
CHINESE COAL MARKS BEST DAY IN 4 MONTHS ON TIGHT SUPPLY, HIGH DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s coal futures on Tuesday recorded their best session since Bejing’s mid-October intervention to cool runaway prices, aided by co ...
Friday, 04 February 22
RENEWABLES ON THE RISE, COAL CONTINUOUSLY FALLING - EUROPEAN COMMISSION
Although oil (34.5%) and natural gas (23.7%) were still the most important fuel sources in the EU energy mix in 2020, renewable energy’s shar ...
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- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
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