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Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if this negative momentum will remain in 2023, pressuring the Dry Baltic index. While the easing of Chinese Covid strict policies which coupled with the 70% coal reliance of North China for its heating boiler amidst the upcoming colder winter can trigger a demand boost for coal, we will focus on some adverse fundamentals which point to pessimistic expectations for its 2023 seaborne coal imports.
Domestic coal output on a rise.
Chinese total coal output of 4.12 billion mt in 2021 contributed around 92% of its total consumptions with 2021 imports standing at 323 million mt. In 2022, domestic production during the first three quarters stood 3.32 billion mt, an increase of +14% compared to 2021 first 3 quarters while the 2022 October output of 370m mt is up by +13m mt compared to October 2021 output. While coal represents almost 55% of China’s energy consumption and half of coal plant expansions (+197GW) are attributed to China, a growth of around 27% of its domestic coal mining capacity could cover this increase in demand. Indeed, 559m mt of coal mines are under construction and proposed as of January 2022 in China, representing 29% of the global share followed by Australia, India, and Russia. In the short-term, a shift in local production is strengthened by policymakers' decision to support national foreign reserves while the appreciation of US$ is leading to higher coal prices for Chinese power plants thus diminishing their profit margin. In addition to that, amidst the current geopolitical tension and its effect on global trade with increases materializing across all the energy commodities globally, we believe that China will keep focusing on its national power security by keeping its inventory levels high through its local production. Indeed, current levels standing at 326.7 million mt as of the end of September which is +45% above the historical average of 225m mt and +217m mt compared to the same period last year. Covid-zero Policy will determine the growth of coal demand which however remains subdued. While Covid-19 policy relaxation has begun we do not expect that a full re-opening will take place no earlier than the end of Q12023 further trimming its coal demand.
New trade patterns in question.
China's main source of coal is Indonesia with 133 million mt (98% thermal coal) being delivered so far in 2022, followed by Russia and Mongolia with 54.01m mt (68% thermal coal) and 22.38m mt (85% metallurgical coal) respectively. While Indonesia will remain the largest supplier of coal to China yet with a fall of -16.19% so far in the first ten months of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021, the rest two nations have significantly increased their market share with Mongolia and Russia posting an increase of +60% and +12.8% respectively. While ton-mile demand is benefited from cheaper Russian coal due to European sanctions and the need to alter its trade partners, an increase in Mongolian exports could absorb a share of Russian coking coal exports especially given the recent Russian transport infrastructure limitation which leads to delays in loading and arrivals. Having said that, the new Mongolian 233km Tavan Tolgoi rail line which is estimated to cut transport costs to around US$8 per tonne compared to truck transport costs, could point towards this shift. According to the president of Mongolia, this new rail line could increase coal exports to China to 50m tonnes compared to 22.38 million so far in 2022 and its record 36.24 million tonnes in 2018. In addition to this shift, other seaborne sources of metallurgical coal namely the US, Indonesia, and Canada could see their exports further decreasing from Mongolian ones. As far as the Mongolian thermal coal exports are concerned, an increase of 61% (+1.23 million mt) has materialized during the first ten months of 2022 compared to the whole of 2021. With rail infrastructure expansions, Mongolian thermal coal exports could also increase further. The real question is, does China needs all this coal? If not, based on this year's demand, decisions will be made based on costs and transport delays and in that scenario, Mongolian exports could benefit further.
By Yiannis Parganas,
Head of Research Department
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 17 February 22
APAC THERMAL COAL PRICES TO EASE ON END OF INDONESIA EXPORT BAN - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings-Shanghai/Singapore-14 February 2022: APAC thermal coal prices are likely to come under pressure in the near term due to seasonally we ...
Tuesday, 15 February 22
IS ANOTHER COAL SHORTAGE CRISIS LOOMING OVER INDIA? - BUSINESS STANDARD
In December last year, the Federation of Indian Mineral Industries (FIMI) shot off a letter to the Prime Minister claiming that the coal crisis was ...
Tuesday, 15 February 22
THERMAL COAL'S RECORD PRICE RUN MAY END UP ITS OWN WORST ENEMY - REUTERS
The price of benchmark Australian thermal coal rose last week to trade near record highs, providing a short-term boost to producers but increasing ...
Thursday, 10 February 22
INDONESIA: COAL EXPORT BAN - SKULD
Indonesia's coal export ban in the light of force majeure and off-hire clauses
In January 2022, Indonesia, the world's biggest exporte ...
Thursday, 10 February 22
EIA ANALYSIS CONSIDERS DIFFERENT OUTCOMES FOR COAL MARKETS IN INDIA AND SOUTHEAST ASIA
In our International Energy Outlook 2021 (IEO2021) Issues in Focus: Uncertainty in Coal Trade in India and Greater Southeast Asia, we analyze three ...
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- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- PTC India Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
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