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Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if this negative momentum will remain in 2023, pressuring the Dry Baltic index. While the easing of Chinese Covid strict policies which coupled with the 70% coal reliance of North China for its heating boiler amidst the upcoming colder winter can trigger a demand boost for coal, we will focus on some adverse fundamentals which point to pessimistic expectations for its 2023 seaborne coal imports.
Domestic coal output on a rise.
Chinese total coal output of 4.12 billion mt in 2021 contributed around 92% of its total consumptions with 2021 imports standing at 323 million mt. In 2022, domestic production during the first three quarters stood 3.32 billion mt, an increase of +14% compared to 2021 first 3 quarters while the 2022 October output of 370m mt is up by +13m mt compared to October 2021 output. While coal represents almost 55% of China’s energy consumption and half of coal plant expansions (+197GW) are attributed to China, a growth of around 27% of its domestic coal mining capacity could cover this increase in demand. Indeed, 559m mt of coal mines are under construction and proposed as of January 2022 in China, representing 29% of the global share followed by Australia, India, and Russia. In the short-term, a shift in local production is strengthened by policymakers' decision to support national foreign reserves while the appreciation of US$ is leading to higher coal prices for Chinese power plants thus diminishing their profit margin. In addition to that, amidst the current geopolitical tension and its effect on global trade with increases materializing across all the energy commodities globally, we believe that China will keep focusing on its national power security by keeping its inventory levels high through its local production. Indeed, current levels standing at 326.7 million mt as of the end of September which is +45% above the historical average of 225m mt and +217m mt compared to the same period last year. Covid-zero Policy will determine the growth of coal demand which however remains subdued. While Covid-19 policy relaxation has begun we do not expect that a full re-opening will take place no earlier than the end of Q12023 further trimming its coal demand.
New trade patterns in question.
China's main source of coal is Indonesia with 133 million mt (98% thermal coal) being delivered so far in 2022, followed by Russia and Mongolia with 54.01m mt (68% thermal coal) and 22.38m mt (85% metallurgical coal) respectively. While Indonesia will remain the largest supplier of coal to China yet with a fall of -16.19% so far in the first ten months of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021, the rest two nations have significantly increased their market share with Mongolia and Russia posting an increase of +60% and +12.8% respectively. While ton-mile demand is benefited from cheaper Russian coal due to European sanctions and the need to alter its trade partners, an increase in Mongolian exports could absorb a share of Russian coking coal exports especially given the recent Russian transport infrastructure limitation which leads to delays in loading and arrivals. Having said that, the new Mongolian 233km Tavan Tolgoi rail line which is estimated to cut transport costs to around US$8 per tonne compared to truck transport costs, could point towards this shift. According to the president of Mongolia, this new rail line could increase coal exports to China to 50m tonnes compared to 22.38 million so far in 2022 and its record 36.24 million tonnes in 2018. In addition to this shift, other seaborne sources of metallurgical coal namely the US, Indonesia, and Canada could see their exports further decreasing from Mongolian ones. As far as the Mongolian thermal coal exports are concerned, an increase of 61% (+1.23 million mt) has materialized during the first ten months of 2022 compared to the whole of 2021. With rail infrastructure expansions, Mongolian thermal coal exports could also increase further. The real question is, does China needs all this coal? If not, based on this year's demand, decisions will be made based on costs and transport delays and in that scenario, Mongolian exports could benefit further.
By Yiannis Parganas,
Head of Research Department
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 19 July 22
WHY SHIPPING MIGHT BE ABOUT TO GET A LITTLE BIT SLOWER - WORLD ECONOMIC FORUM
If shipping is the beating heart of global trade, its pulse is about to get slower.
Faced with uncertainty about which fuels to use in the long ...
Tuesday, 19 July 22
GERMANY'S INCREASED COAL, OIL USE WILL BE TEMPORARY, SCHOLZ SAYS - CNBC
Chancellor Olaf Scholz says Germany’s decision to reactivate coal and oil-fired power plants to relieve energy shortages because of the war i ...
Tuesday, 19 July 22
INDONESIA REMOVES PALM OIL EXPORT LEVY UNTIL AUG. 31 - REUTERS
Indonesia has scrapped its export levy for all palm oil products until Aug. 31 in a fresh attempt to boost exports and ease high inventories, finan ...
Tuesday, 19 July 22
CHINA'S JUNE DAILY COAL OUTPUT JUMPS ON PEAK SUMMER DEMAND - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output in June rose 6.6 per cent from a month earlier as miners cranked up output ahead of peak summer temperatures, when ...
Tuesday, 19 July 22
SEEING RED? - WOOD MACKENZIE
What a Republican mid-term victory could mean for US energy and climate policy
According to current polling the Republican Party has ...
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- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- VISA Power Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Planning Commission, India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- The University of Queensland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
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