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Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if this negative momentum will remain in 2023, pressuring the Dry Baltic index. While the easing of Chinese Covid strict policies which coupled with the 70% coal reliance of North China for its heating boiler amidst the upcoming colder winter can trigger a demand boost for coal, we will focus on some adverse fundamentals which point to pessimistic expectations for its 2023 seaborne coal imports.
Domestic coal output on a rise.
Chinese total coal output of 4.12 billion mt in 2021 contributed around 92% of its total consumptions with 2021 imports standing at 323 million mt. In 2022, domestic production during the first three quarters stood 3.32 billion mt, an increase of +14% compared to 2021 first 3 quarters while the 2022 October output of 370m mt is up by +13m mt compared to October 2021 output. While coal represents almost 55% of China’s energy consumption and half of coal plant expansions (+197GW) are attributed to China, a growth of around 27% of its domestic coal mining capacity could cover this increase in demand. Indeed, 559m mt of coal mines are under construction and proposed as of January 2022 in China, representing 29% of the global share followed by Australia, India, and Russia. In the short-term, a shift in local production is strengthened by policymakers' decision to support national foreign reserves while the appreciation of US$ is leading to higher coal prices for Chinese power plants thus diminishing their profit margin. In addition to that, amidst the current geopolitical tension and its effect on global trade with increases materializing across all the energy commodities globally, we believe that China will keep focusing on its national power security by keeping its inventory levels high through its local production. Indeed, current levels standing at 326.7 million mt as of the end of September which is +45% above the historical average of 225m mt and +217m mt compared to the same period last year. Covid-zero Policy will determine the growth of coal demand which however remains subdued. While Covid-19 policy relaxation has begun we do not expect that a full re-opening will take place no earlier than the end of Q12023 further trimming its coal demand.
New trade patterns in question.
China's main source of coal is Indonesia with 133 million mt (98% thermal coal) being delivered so far in 2022, followed by Russia and Mongolia with 54.01m mt (68% thermal coal) and 22.38m mt (85% metallurgical coal) respectively. While Indonesia will remain the largest supplier of coal to China yet with a fall of -16.19% so far in the first ten months of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021, the rest two nations have significantly increased their market share with Mongolia and Russia posting an increase of +60% and +12.8% respectively. While ton-mile demand is benefited from cheaper Russian coal due to European sanctions and the need to alter its trade partners, an increase in Mongolian exports could absorb a share of Russian coking coal exports especially given the recent Russian transport infrastructure limitation which leads to delays in loading and arrivals. Having said that, the new Mongolian 233km Tavan Tolgoi rail line which is estimated to cut transport costs to around US$8 per tonne compared to truck transport costs, could point towards this shift. According to the president of Mongolia, this new rail line could increase coal exports to China to 50m tonnes compared to 22.38 million so far in 2022 and its record 36.24 million tonnes in 2018. In addition to this shift, other seaborne sources of metallurgical coal namely the US, Indonesia, and Canada could see their exports further decreasing from Mongolian ones. As far as the Mongolian thermal coal exports are concerned, an increase of 61% (+1.23 million mt) has materialized during the first ten months of 2022 compared to the whole of 2021. With rail infrastructure expansions, Mongolian thermal coal exports could also increase further. The real question is, does China needs all this coal? If not, based on this year's demand, decisions will be made based on costs and transport delays and in that scenario, Mongolian exports could benefit further.
By Yiannis Parganas,
Head of Research Department
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 14 July 22
INDIA'S COAL IMPORTS HIT RECORD HIGH IN JUNE - REUTERS
India's coal imports hit a record high in June despite high global prices, data from three trade sources and Refinitiv ship tracking showed, as ...
Thursday, 14 July 22
CHINA'S JUNE COAL IMPORTS SLUMP AS TRADERS SHUN EXPENSIVE OVERSEAS CARGOES - REUTERS
China’s coal imports fell 33% in June from a year ago, with traders turning down expensive overseas cargoes in favor of domestic ones with ca ...
Wednesday, 13 July 22
KOWEPO TO IMPORT 2.79 MILLION TONS OF LOW TO MEDIUM COAL
COALspot.com: Korea Western Power Co., Ltd. (KOWEPO) has issued an International tender for Total 1360k MT of Min.4400 kcal/kg NCV coal and Total 1 ...
Wednesday, 13 July 22
HAVE MINERS MISSED THE BOAT TO INVEST AND GET AHEAD OF THE ENERGY TRANSITION? - WOOD MACKENZIE
Miners are in rude health, benefiting from economic stimuli, the post-pandemic recovery and associated supply constraints. Initially the Ukraine wa ...
Wednesday, 13 July 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Taking the previous market insight a step further, market sentiment remains bullish regarding the overall ROI of scrubbers, facing tailwinds from a ...
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- White Energy Company Limited
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Planning Commission, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
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