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Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if this negative momentum will remain in 2023, pressuring the Dry Baltic index. While the easing of Chinese Covid strict policies which coupled with the 70% coal reliance of North China for its heating boiler amidst the upcoming colder winter can trigger a demand boost for coal, we will focus on some adverse fundamentals which point to pessimistic expectations for its 2023 seaborne coal imports.
Domestic coal output on a rise.
Chinese total coal output of 4.12 billion mt in 2021 contributed around 92% of its total consumptions with 2021 imports standing at 323 million mt. In 2022, domestic production during the first three quarters stood 3.32 billion mt, an increase of +14% compared to 2021 first 3 quarters while the 2022 October output of 370m mt is up by +13m mt compared to October 2021 output. While coal represents almost 55% of China’s energy consumption and half of coal plant expansions (+197GW) are attributed to China, a growth of around 27% of its domestic coal mining capacity could cover this increase in demand. Indeed, 559m mt of coal mines are under construction and proposed as of January 2022 in China, representing 29% of the global share followed by Australia, India, and Russia. In the short-term, a shift in local production is strengthened by policymakers' decision to support national foreign reserves while the appreciation of US$ is leading to higher coal prices for Chinese power plants thus diminishing their profit margin. In addition to that, amidst the current geopolitical tension and its effect on global trade with increases materializing across all the energy commodities globally, we believe that China will keep focusing on its national power security by keeping its inventory levels high through its local production. Indeed, current levels standing at 326.7 million mt as of the end of September which is +45% above the historical average of 225m mt and +217m mt compared to the same period last year. Covid-zero Policy will determine the growth of coal demand which however remains subdued. While Covid-19 policy relaxation has begun we do not expect that a full re-opening will take place no earlier than the end of Q12023 further trimming its coal demand.
New trade patterns in question.
China's main source of coal is Indonesia with 133 million mt (98% thermal coal) being delivered so far in 2022, followed by Russia and Mongolia with 54.01m mt (68% thermal coal) and 22.38m mt (85% metallurgical coal) respectively. While Indonesia will remain the largest supplier of coal to China yet with a fall of -16.19% so far in the first ten months of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021, the rest two nations have significantly increased their market share with Mongolia and Russia posting an increase of +60% and +12.8% respectively. While ton-mile demand is benefited from cheaper Russian coal due to European sanctions and the need to alter its trade partners, an increase in Mongolian exports could absorb a share of Russian coking coal exports especially given the recent Russian transport infrastructure limitation which leads to delays in loading and arrivals. Having said that, the new Mongolian 233km Tavan Tolgoi rail line which is estimated to cut transport costs to around US$8 per tonne compared to truck transport costs, could point towards this shift. According to the president of Mongolia, this new rail line could increase coal exports to China to 50m tonnes compared to 22.38 million so far in 2022 and its record 36.24 million tonnes in 2018. In addition to this shift, other seaborne sources of metallurgical coal namely the US, Indonesia, and Canada could see their exports further decreasing from Mongolian ones. As far as the Mongolian thermal coal exports are concerned, an increase of 61% (+1.23 million mt) has materialized during the first ten months of 2022 compared to the whole of 2021. With rail infrastructure expansions, Mongolian thermal coal exports could also increase further. The real question is, does China needs all this coal? If not, based on this year's demand, decisions will be made based on costs and transport delays and in that scenario, Mongolian exports could benefit further.
By Yiannis Parganas,
Head of Research Department
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 26 July 22
WILL SOUTH AMERICA’S WINTER DEMAND DRAW LNG CARGOES AWAY FROM EUROPE? - ICIS
South America is now in the middle of its winter demand season. Last year the region increased its share of global LNG imports in winter, with Braz ...
Monday, 25 July 22
GLOBAL 2021 COAL-FIRED ELECTRICITY GENERATION SURGES TO RECORD HIGH - REUTERS
By contrast, mine output was still fractionally below the record set between 2012 and 2014 because older and less efficient coal generators have be ...
Saturday, 23 July 22
THE EU HAS BEEN REDUCING IMPORTS OF RUSSIAN REFINED OIL PRODUCTS SINCE MARCH - BANCHERO COSTA
The European Union could now ban the import and transit of fuel oil from Russia around six months ahead of the planned deadline, an EU official and ...
Saturday, 23 July 22
INDONESIA CONSIDERING SCRAPPING DOMESTIC SALES RULE FOR PALM OIL EXPORTS - REUTERS
Indonesia is considering removing a domestic sales requirement for palm oil exports because high inventories of the vegetable oil have been holding ...
Saturday, 23 July 22
STABILITY OF RUSSIAN GAS FLOWS REMAIN UNCERTAIN, DESPITE THE REOPENING OF NORD STREAM - WOOD MACKENZIE
Gazprom confirmed today that regular annual maintenance of Nord Stream is officially over and gas flows restarted at 63 million cubic metres per da ...
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- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Planning Commission, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Australian Coal Association
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- White Energy Company Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
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