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Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if this negative momentum will remain in 2023, pressuring the Dry Baltic index. While the easing of Chinese Covid strict policies which coupled with the 70% coal reliance of North China for its heating boiler amidst the upcoming colder winter can trigger a demand boost for coal, we will focus on some adverse fundamentals which point to pessimistic expectations for its 2023 seaborne coal imports.
Domestic coal output on a rise.
Chinese total coal output of 4.12 billion mt in 2021 contributed around 92% of its total consumptions with 2021 imports standing at 323 million mt. In 2022, domestic production during the first three quarters stood 3.32 billion mt, an increase of +14% compared to 2021 first 3 quarters while the 2022 October output of 370m mt is up by +13m mt compared to October 2021 output. While coal represents almost 55% of China’s energy consumption and half of coal plant expansions (+197GW) are attributed to China, a growth of around 27% of its domestic coal mining capacity could cover this increase in demand. Indeed, 559m mt of coal mines are under construction and proposed as of January 2022 in China, representing 29% of the global share followed by Australia, India, and Russia. In the short-term, a shift in local production is strengthened by policymakers' decision to support national foreign reserves while the appreciation of US$ is leading to higher coal prices for Chinese power plants thus diminishing their profit margin. In addition to that, amidst the current geopolitical tension and its effect on global trade with increases materializing across all the energy commodities globally, we believe that China will keep focusing on its national power security by keeping its inventory levels high through its local production. Indeed, current levels standing at 326.7 million mt as of the end of September which is +45% above the historical average of 225m mt and +217m mt compared to the same period last year. Covid-zero Policy will determine the growth of coal demand which however remains subdued. While Covid-19 policy relaxation has begun we do not expect that a full re-opening will take place no earlier than the end of Q12023 further trimming its coal demand.
New trade patterns in question.
China's main source of coal is Indonesia with 133 million mt (98% thermal coal) being delivered so far in 2022, followed by Russia and Mongolia with 54.01m mt (68% thermal coal) and 22.38m mt (85% metallurgical coal) respectively. While Indonesia will remain the largest supplier of coal to China yet with a fall of -16.19% so far in the first ten months of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021, the rest two nations have significantly increased their market share with Mongolia and Russia posting an increase of +60% and +12.8% respectively. While ton-mile demand is benefited from cheaper Russian coal due to European sanctions and the need to alter its trade partners, an increase in Mongolian exports could absorb a share of Russian coking coal exports especially given the recent Russian transport infrastructure limitation which leads to delays in loading and arrivals. Having said that, the new Mongolian 233km Tavan Tolgoi rail line which is estimated to cut transport costs to around US$8 per tonne compared to truck transport costs, could point towards this shift. According to the president of Mongolia, this new rail line could increase coal exports to China to 50m tonnes compared to 22.38 million so far in 2022 and its record 36.24 million tonnes in 2018. In addition to this shift, other seaborne sources of metallurgical coal namely the US, Indonesia, and Canada could see their exports further decreasing from Mongolian ones. As far as the Mongolian thermal coal exports are concerned, an increase of 61% (+1.23 million mt) has materialized during the first ten months of 2022 compared to the whole of 2021. With rail infrastructure expansions, Mongolian thermal coal exports could also increase further. The real question is, does China needs all this coal? If not, based on this year's demand, decisions will be made based on costs and transport delays and in that scenario, Mongolian exports could benefit further.
By Yiannis Parganas,
Head of Research Department
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Saturday, 06 August 22
SUMITOMO Q1 PROFIT RISES 45% ON STRONGER PRICES OF COAL, NICKEL - REUTERS
Japanese trading house Sumitomo Corp 8053.T said on Wednesday its net profit for the April-June quarter rose 45% to a record thanks to higher price ...
Saturday, 06 August 22
GERMANY'S ENERGY U-TURN: COAL INSTEAD OF GAS - DEUTSCHE WELLE
Berlin has realized it will never again import as much energy from Russia as before the Ukraine war. So the challenge is to wean Germany off its de ...
Saturday, 30 July 22
NUANCES OF FORCE MAJEURE CLAUSE - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Knowledge to Elevate
In NKD Maritime Limited v. Bart Maritime (No 2) Inc (Shagang Giant) [2022] EWHC 1615 (Comm), Bart Maritime (No 2) Inc (th ...
Saturday, 30 July 22
AEMO URGES QUICKER SHIFT TO RENEWABLES AMID COAL FAILURES AND SOARING FOSSIL FUEL COSTS
The Australian Energy Market Operator has called for an accelerated shift to wind and solar, backed up by batteries and other storage, as a devasta ...
Friday, 29 July 22
GLENCORE TO SUPPLY COAL TO NIPPON STEEL AT $375 PER TON - BLOOMBERG
Glencore Plc, agreed to supply coal to Nippon Steel at one of the highest prices ever paid by the Japan Bloomberg reported on July 27.
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- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- The University of Queensland
- PTC India Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
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