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Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if this negative momentum will remain in 2023, pressuring the Dry Baltic index. While the easing of Chinese Covid strict policies which coupled with the 70% coal reliance of North China for its heating boiler amidst the upcoming colder winter can trigger a demand boost for coal, we will focus on some adverse fundamentals which point to pessimistic expectations for its 2023 seaborne coal imports.
Domestic coal output on a rise.
Chinese total coal output of 4.12 billion mt in 2021 contributed around 92% of its total consumptions with 2021 imports standing at 323 million mt. In 2022, domestic production during the first three quarters stood 3.32 billion mt, an increase of +14% compared to 2021 first 3 quarters while the 2022 October output of 370m mt is up by +13m mt compared to October 2021 output. While coal represents almost 55% of China’s energy consumption and half of coal plant expansions (+197GW) are attributed to China, a growth of around 27% of its domestic coal mining capacity could cover this increase in demand. Indeed, 559m mt of coal mines are under construction and proposed as of January 2022 in China, representing 29% of the global share followed by Australia, India, and Russia. In the short-term, a shift in local production is strengthened by policymakers' decision to support national foreign reserves while the appreciation of US$ is leading to higher coal prices for Chinese power plants thus diminishing their profit margin. In addition to that, amidst the current geopolitical tension and its effect on global trade with increases materializing across all the energy commodities globally, we believe that China will keep focusing on its national power security by keeping its inventory levels high through its local production. Indeed, current levels standing at 326.7 million mt as of the end of September which is +45% above the historical average of 225m mt and +217m mt compared to the same period last year. Covid-zero Policy will determine the growth of coal demand which however remains subdued. While Covid-19 policy relaxation has begun we do not expect that a full re-opening will take place no earlier than the end of Q12023 further trimming its coal demand.
New trade patterns in question.
China's main source of coal is Indonesia with 133 million mt (98% thermal coal) being delivered so far in 2022, followed by Russia and Mongolia with 54.01m mt (68% thermal coal) and 22.38m mt (85% metallurgical coal) respectively. While Indonesia will remain the largest supplier of coal to China yet with a fall of -16.19% so far in the first ten months of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021, the rest two nations have significantly increased their market share with Mongolia and Russia posting an increase of +60% and +12.8% respectively. While ton-mile demand is benefited from cheaper Russian coal due to European sanctions and the need to alter its trade partners, an increase in Mongolian exports could absorb a share of Russian coking coal exports especially given the recent Russian transport infrastructure limitation which leads to delays in loading and arrivals. Having said that, the new Mongolian 233km Tavan Tolgoi rail line which is estimated to cut transport costs to around US$8 per tonne compared to truck transport costs, could point towards this shift. According to the president of Mongolia, this new rail line could increase coal exports to China to 50m tonnes compared to 22.38 million so far in 2022 and its record 36.24 million tonnes in 2018. In addition to this shift, other seaborne sources of metallurgical coal namely the US, Indonesia, and Canada could see their exports further decreasing from Mongolian ones. As far as the Mongolian thermal coal exports are concerned, an increase of 61% (+1.23 million mt) has materialized during the first ten months of 2022 compared to the whole of 2021. With rail infrastructure expansions, Mongolian thermal coal exports could also increase further. The real question is, does China needs all this coal? If not, based on this year's demand, decisions will be made based on costs and transport delays and in that scenario, Mongolian exports could benefit further.
By Yiannis Parganas,
Head of Research Department
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 17 August 22
PAXOCEAN, HONG LAM MARINE AND BUREAU VERITAS SIGN MOU TO DEVELOP AMMONIA BUNKER VESSEL DESIGN - BUREAU VERITAS
PaxOcean Engineering Pte. Ltd. has signed a Memorandum of Understanding (MOU) with Singapore-based bunker vessel operator Hong Lam Marine and class ...
Wednesday, 17 August 22
GOODFUELSS ASIA-PACIFIC BRANCH KICKSTARTS SUSTAINABLE BIOFUEL DELIVERIES WITH NYK AS FIRST CLIENT - GOOD FUELS
GoodFuels, the leading biofuels pioneer for the global transport industry, has today announced that it has successfully supplied sustainable marine ...
Tuesday, 16 August 22
EU BAN ON RUSSIAN COAL IMPORTS COMES INTO FORCE - DEUTSCHE WELLE
The European Union banned Russian coal imports in response to the invasion of Ukraine as part of sanctions in April. Since then, it’s been sc ...
Thursday, 11 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
On July 22nd, Ukraine signed a deal with Russia to release 22mn tons of grain from Ukraine’s 3 major ports (Yuzhny, Chornomorsk, Odesa). Such ...
Wednesday, 10 August 22
THE FUTURE OF COAL: EIGHT KEY THEMES FROM THE GLOBAL COAL FORUM - WOOD MACKENZIE
Coal investors face a multi-layered and unavoidable challenge: markets distorted by war, trade constraints and the existential threat of the energy ...
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- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Planning Commission, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
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