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Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if this negative momentum will remain in 2023, pressuring the Dry Baltic index. While the easing of Chinese Covid strict policies which coupled with the 70% coal reliance of North China for its heating boiler amidst the upcoming colder winter can trigger a demand boost for coal, we will focus on some adverse fundamentals which point to pessimistic expectations for its 2023 seaborne coal imports.
Domestic coal output on a rise.
Chinese total coal output of 4.12 billion mt in 2021 contributed around 92% of its total consumptions with 2021 imports standing at 323 million mt. In 2022, domestic production during the first three quarters stood 3.32 billion mt, an increase of +14% compared to 2021 first 3 quarters while the 2022 October output of 370m mt is up by +13m mt compared to October 2021 output. While coal represents almost 55% of China’s energy consumption and half of coal plant expansions (+197GW) are attributed to China, a growth of around 27% of its domestic coal mining capacity could cover this increase in demand. Indeed, 559m mt of coal mines are under construction and proposed as of January 2022 in China, representing 29% of the global share followed by Australia, India, and Russia. In the short-term, a shift in local production is strengthened by policymakers' decision to support national foreign reserves while the appreciation of US$ is leading to higher coal prices for Chinese power plants thus diminishing their profit margin. In addition to that, amidst the current geopolitical tension and its effect on global trade with increases materializing across all the energy commodities globally, we believe that China will keep focusing on its national power security by keeping its inventory levels high through its local production. Indeed, current levels standing at 326.7 million mt as of the end of September which is +45% above the historical average of 225m mt and +217m mt compared to the same period last year. Covid-zero Policy will determine the growth of coal demand which however remains subdued. While Covid-19 policy relaxation has begun we do not expect that a full re-opening will take place no earlier than the end of Q12023 further trimming its coal demand.
New trade patterns in question.
China's main source of coal is Indonesia with 133 million mt (98% thermal coal) being delivered so far in 2022, followed by Russia and Mongolia with 54.01m mt (68% thermal coal) and 22.38m mt (85% metallurgical coal) respectively. While Indonesia will remain the largest supplier of coal to China yet with a fall of -16.19% so far in the first ten months of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021, the rest two nations have significantly increased their market share with Mongolia and Russia posting an increase of +60% and +12.8% respectively. While ton-mile demand is benefited from cheaper Russian coal due to European sanctions and the need to alter its trade partners, an increase in Mongolian exports could absorb a share of Russian coking coal exports especially given the recent Russian transport infrastructure limitation which leads to delays in loading and arrivals. Having said that, the new Mongolian 233km Tavan Tolgoi rail line which is estimated to cut transport costs to around US$8 per tonne compared to truck transport costs, could point towards this shift. According to the president of Mongolia, this new rail line could increase coal exports to China to 50m tonnes compared to 22.38 million so far in 2022 and its record 36.24 million tonnes in 2018. In addition to this shift, other seaborne sources of metallurgical coal namely the US, Indonesia, and Canada could see their exports further decreasing from Mongolian ones. As far as the Mongolian thermal coal exports are concerned, an increase of 61% (+1.23 million mt) has materialized during the first ten months of 2022 compared to the whole of 2021. With rail infrastructure expansions, Mongolian thermal coal exports could also increase further. The real question is, does China needs all this coal? If not, based on this year's demand, decisions will be made based on costs and transport delays and in that scenario, Mongolian exports could benefit further.
By Yiannis Parganas,
Head of Research Department
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 23 August 22
SHIPPING: GLOBAL TAX REFORM - WATSON FARLEY & WILLIAMS
OECD rules designed to implement a global minimum corporate tax rate for very large multinational groups have now been published and are expected t ...
Tuesday, 23 August 22
PARTIES CONCLUDE JOINT R&D AGREEMENT FOR WORLD’S FIRST AMMONIA FLOATING STORAGE AND REGASIFICATION BARGE CONTRIBUTING TO PROMOTING THE EARLY INTRODUCTION OF AMMONIA FUEL - NYK
NYK Line, Nihon Shipyard Co., Ltd. (NSY), ClassNK, and IHI Corporation (IHI) signed a joint research and development agreement for the commercializ ...
Monday, 22 August 22
INDONESIAN GOVERNMENT IMPOSED ON NEW PROGRESSIVE ROYALTIES FOR COAL
Indonesian President Joko Widodo has signed a Government Regulation (Number 26 of 2022) on 15 August 2022 related to the progressive royalty rates ...
Monday, 22 August 22
CHINA'S JULY RUSSIAN COAL IMPORTS HIT 5-YR HIGH AS WEST SHUNS MOSCOW - REUTERS
China’s coal imports from Russia jumped 14% in July from a year earlier to their highest in at least five years, as China bought discounted c ...
Sunday, 21 August 22
COAL-RICH POLAND FACES WINTER OF ENERGY DISCONTENT - DW
Poland uses 10 million tons of coal a year to heat households — a whopping 87% of all coal consumed in EU homes in 2019, according to the War ...
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- PTC India Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- White Energy Company Limited
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- The University of Queensland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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