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Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if this negative momentum will remain in 2023, pressuring the Dry Baltic index. While the easing of Chinese Covid strict policies which coupled with the 70% coal reliance of North China for its heating boiler amidst the upcoming colder winter can trigger a demand boost for coal, we will focus on some adverse fundamentals which point to pessimistic expectations for its 2023 seaborne coal imports.
Domestic coal output on a rise.
Chinese total coal output of 4.12 billion mt in 2021 contributed around 92% of its total consumptions with 2021 imports standing at 323 million mt. In 2022, domestic production during the first three quarters stood 3.32 billion mt, an increase of +14% compared to 2021 first 3 quarters while the 2022 October output of 370m mt is up by +13m mt compared to October 2021 output. While coal represents almost 55% of China’s energy consumption and half of coal plant expansions (+197GW) are attributed to China, a growth of around 27% of its domestic coal mining capacity could cover this increase in demand. Indeed, 559m mt of coal mines are under construction and proposed as of January 2022 in China, representing 29% of the global share followed by Australia, India, and Russia. In the short-term, a shift in local production is strengthened by policymakers' decision to support national foreign reserves while the appreciation of US$ is leading to higher coal prices for Chinese power plants thus diminishing their profit margin. In addition to that, amidst the current geopolitical tension and its effect on global trade with increases materializing across all the energy commodities globally, we believe that China will keep focusing on its national power security by keeping its inventory levels high through its local production. Indeed, current levels standing at 326.7 million mt as of the end of September which is +45% above the historical average of 225m mt and +217m mt compared to the same period last year. Covid-zero Policy will determine the growth of coal demand which however remains subdued. While Covid-19 policy relaxation has begun we do not expect that a full re-opening will take place no earlier than the end of Q12023 further trimming its coal demand.
New trade patterns in question.
China's main source of coal is Indonesia with 133 million mt (98% thermal coal) being delivered so far in 2022, followed by Russia and Mongolia with 54.01m mt (68% thermal coal) and 22.38m mt (85% metallurgical coal) respectively. While Indonesia will remain the largest supplier of coal to China yet with a fall of -16.19% so far in the first ten months of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021, the rest two nations have significantly increased their market share with Mongolia and Russia posting an increase of +60% and +12.8% respectively. While ton-mile demand is benefited from cheaper Russian coal due to European sanctions and the need to alter its trade partners, an increase in Mongolian exports could absorb a share of Russian coking coal exports especially given the recent Russian transport infrastructure limitation which leads to delays in loading and arrivals. Having said that, the new Mongolian 233km Tavan Tolgoi rail line which is estimated to cut transport costs to around US$8 per tonne compared to truck transport costs, could point towards this shift. According to the president of Mongolia, this new rail line could increase coal exports to China to 50m tonnes compared to 22.38 million so far in 2022 and its record 36.24 million tonnes in 2018. In addition to this shift, other seaborne sources of metallurgical coal namely the US, Indonesia, and Canada could see their exports further decreasing from Mongolian ones. As far as the Mongolian thermal coal exports are concerned, an increase of 61% (+1.23 million mt) has materialized during the first ten months of 2022 compared to the whole of 2021. With rail infrastructure expansions, Mongolian thermal coal exports could also increase further. The real question is, does China needs all this coal? If not, based on this year's demand, decisions will be made based on costs and transport delays and in that scenario, Mongolian exports could benefit further.
By Yiannis Parganas,
Head of Research Department
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 09 September 22
GREECE WILL KEEP COAL-FIRED PLANTS RUNNING FOR LONGER AMID GAS CRISIS - REUTERS
Greece will keep seven coal-fired plants running for longer than previously planned as European countries adjust to a cut in gas flows coming from ...
Friday, 09 September 22
CHINA'S DROUGHT INTENSIFIES GLOBAL COAL SHORTAGE - REUTERS
China’s drought has sent coal prices surging as traders anticipate the lack of hydroelectric generation will force it to burn more coal to me ...
Thursday, 08 September 22
MOODY.S AFFIRMS ABM INVESTAMA'S B1 RATINGS FOLLOWING PLANNED MINORITY INVESTMENT IN COAL MINER; OUTLOOK STABLE
Moody's Investors Service has affirmed ABM Investama Tbk (P.T.)'s B1 corporate family rating (CFR), along with the B1 rating on its senior ...
Thursday, 08 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While the energy markets are historically stretched, Russian flows of crude oil are closely monitored as the oil trade is ultimately realigned. Mor ...
Friday, 02 September 22
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE SLIPS SLIGHTLY IN SEPTEMBER 2022
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for September delivery drops 0.74 per cent month on month.
The Indonesian Coal Price R ...
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- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- PTC India Limited - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- The University of Queensland
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
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