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Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if this negative momentum will remain in 2023, pressuring the Dry Baltic index. While the easing of Chinese Covid strict policies which coupled with the 70% coal reliance of North China for its heating boiler amidst the upcoming colder winter can trigger a demand boost for coal, we will focus on some adverse fundamentals which point to pessimistic expectations for its 2023 seaborne coal imports.
Domestic coal output on a rise.
Chinese total coal output of 4.12 billion mt in 2021 contributed around 92% of its total consumptions with 2021 imports standing at 323 million mt. In 2022, domestic production during the first three quarters stood 3.32 billion mt, an increase of +14% compared to 2021 first 3 quarters while the 2022 October output of 370m mt is up by +13m mt compared to October 2021 output. While coal represents almost 55% of China’s energy consumption and half of coal plant expansions (+197GW) are attributed to China, a growth of around 27% of its domestic coal mining capacity could cover this increase in demand. Indeed, 559m mt of coal mines are under construction and proposed as of January 2022 in China, representing 29% of the global share followed by Australia, India, and Russia. In the short-term, a shift in local production is strengthened by policymakers' decision to support national foreign reserves while the appreciation of US$ is leading to higher coal prices for Chinese power plants thus diminishing their profit margin. In addition to that, amidst the current geopolitical tension and its effect on global trade with increases materializing across all the energy commodities globally, we believe that China will keep focusing on its national power security by keeping its inventory levels high through its local production. Indeed, current levels standing at 326.7 million mt as of the end of September which is +45% above the historical average of 225m mt and +217m mt compared to the same period last year. Covid-zero Policy will determine the growth of coal demand which however remains subdued. While Covid-19 policy relaxation has begun we do not expect that a full re-opening will take place no earlier than the end of Q12023 further trimming its coal demand.
New trade patterns in question.
China's main source of coal is Indonesia with 133 million mt (98% thermal coal) being delivered so far in 2022, followed by Russia and Mongolia with 54.01m mt (68% thermal coal) and 22.38m mt (85% metallurgical coal) respectively. While Indonesia will remain the largest supplier of coal to China yet with a fall of -16.19% so far in the first ten months of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021, the rest two nations have significantly increased their market share with Mongolia and Russia posting an increase of +60% and +12.8% respectively. While ton-mile demand is benefited from cheaper Russian coal due to European sanctions and the need to alter its trade partners, an increase in Mongolian exports could absorb a share of Russian coking coal exports especially given the recent Russian transport infrastructure limitation which leads to delays in loading and arrivals. Having said that, the new Mongolian 233km Tavan Tolgoi rail line which is estimated to cut transport costs to around US$8 per tonne compared to truck transport costs, could point towards this shift. According to the president of Mongolia, this new rail line could increase coal exports to China to 50m tonnes compared to 22.38 million so far in 2022 and its record 36.24 million tonnes in 2018. In addition to this shift, other seaborne sources of metallurgical coal namely the US, Indonesia, and Canada could see their exports further decreasing from Mongolian ones. As far as the Mongolian thermal coal exports are concerned, an increase of 61% (+1.23 million mt) has materialized during the first ten months of 2022 compared to the whole of 2021. With rail infrastructure expansions, Mongolian thermal coal exports could also increase further. The real question is, does China needs all this coal? If not, based on this year's demand, decisions will be made based on costs and transport delays and in that scenario, Mongolian exports could benefit further.
By Yiannis Parganas,
Head of Research Department
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 09 September 22
GREECE WILL KEEP COAL-FIRED PLANTS RUNNING FOR LONGER AMID GAS CRISIS - REUTERS
Greece will keep seven coal-fired plants running for longer than previously planned as European countries adjust to a cut in gas flows coming from ...
Friday, 09 September 22
CHINA'S DROUGHT INTENSIFIES GLOBAL COAL SHORTAGE - REUTERS
China’s drought has sent coal prices surging as traders anticipate the lack of hydroelectric generation will force it to burn more coal to me ...
Thursday, 08 September 22
MOODY.S AFFIRMS ABM INVESTAMA'S B1 RATINGS FOLLOWING PLANNED MINORITY INVESTMENT IN COAL MINER; OUTLOOK STABLE
Moody's Investors Service has affirmed ABM Investama Tbk (P.T.)'s B1 corporate family rating (CFR), along with the B1 rating on its senior ...
Thursday, 08 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While the energy markets are historically stretched, Russian flows of crude oil are closely monitored as the oil trade is ultimately realigned. Mor ...
Friday, 02 September 22
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE SLIPS SLIGHTLY IN SEPTEMBER 2022
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for September delivery drops 0.74 per cent month on month.
The Indonesian Coal Price R ...
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Planning Commission, India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- VISA Power Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The University of Queensland
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
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