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Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if this negative momentum will remain in 2023, pressuring the Dry Baltic index. While the easing of Chinese Covid strict policies which coupled with the 70% coal reliance of North China for its heating boiler amidst the upcoming colder winter can trigger a demand boost for coal, we will focus on some adverse fundamentals which point to pessimistic expectations for its 2023 seaborne coal imports.
Domestic coal output on a rise.
Chinese total coal output of 4.12 billion mt in 2021 contributed around 92% of its total consumptions with 2021 imports standing at 323 million mt. In 2022, domestic production during the first three quarters stood 3.32 billion mt, an increase of +14% compared to 2021 first 3 quarters while the 2022 October output of 370m mt is up by +13m mt compared to October 2021 output. While coal represents almost 55% of China’s energy consumption and half of coal plant expansions (+197GW) are attributed to China, a growth of around 27% of its domestic coal mining capacity could cover this increase in demand. Indeed, 559m mt of coal mines are under construction and proposed as of January 2022 in China, representing 29% of the global share followed by Australia, India, and Russia. In the short-term, a shift in local production is strengthened by policymakers' decision to support national foreign reserves while the appreciation of US$ is leading to higher coal prices for Chinese power plants thus diminishing their profit margin. In addition to that, amidst the current geopolitical tension and its effect on global trade with increases materializing across all the energy commodities globally, we believe that China will keep focusing on its national power security by keeping its inventory levels high through its local production. Indeed, current levels standing at 326.7 million mt as of the end of September which is +45% above the historical average of 225m mt and +217m mt compared to the same period last year. Covid-zero Policy will determine the growth of coal demand which however remains subdued. While Covid-19 policy relaxation has begun we do not expect that a full re-opening will take place no earlier than the end of Q12023 further trimming its coal demand.
New trade patterns in question.
China's main source of coal is Indonesia with 133 million mt (98% thermal coal) being delivered so far in 2022, followed by Russia and Mongolia with 54.01m mt (68% thermal coal) and 22.38m mt (85% metallurgical coal) respectively. While Indonesia will remain the largest supplier of coal to China yet with a fall of -16.19% so far in the first ten months of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021, the rest two nations have significantly increased their market share with Mongolia and Russia posting an increase of +60% and +12.8% respectively. While ton-mile demand is benefited from cheaper Russian coal due to European sanctions and the need to alter its trade partners, an increase in Mongolian exports could absorb a share of Russian coking coal exports especially given the recent Russian transport infrastructure limitation which leads to delays in loading and arrivals. Having said that, the new Mongolian 233km Tavan Tolgoi rail line which is estimated to cut transport costs to around US$8 per tonne compared to truck transport costs, could point towards this shift. According to the president of Mongolia, this new rail line could increase coal exports to China to 50m tonnes compared to 22.38 million so far in 2022 and its record 36.24 million tonnes in 2018. In addition to this shift, other seaborne sources of metallurgical coal namely the US, Indonesia, and Canada could see their exports further decreasing from Mongolian ones. As far as the Mongolian thermal coal exports are concerned, an increase of 61% (+1.23 million mt) has materialized during the first ten months of 2022 compared to the whole of 2021. With rail infrastructure expansions, Mongolian thermal coal exports could also increase further. The real question is, does China needs all this coal? If not, based on this year's demand, decisions will be made based on costs and transport delays and in that scenario, Mongolian exports could benefit further.
By Yiannis Parganas,
Head of Research Department
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 16 September 22
DRY BULK MARKET: EU’S BAN ON RUSSIAN COAL LIFTS DEMAND DESPITE ECONOMIC HEADWINDS - BIMCO
Highlights
– The Baltic Exchange Dry Index (BDI) peaked in late May and has since fallen sharply as lower Chinese demand and adverse glob ...
Friday, 16 September 22
BIMCO EMBARKS ON NEW STANDARD FOR “QUIET ENJOYMENT”
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
A newly set-up BIMCO drafting team involving a cross-section of shipowners, charterers, financing and leasing i ...
Friday, 16 September 22
INDIAN COAL PRODUCTION TO RISE 150 PER CENT IN 10 YEARS: CENTRE - EXPRESS NEWS SERVICE
The Union Ministry of Mines is expecting 150 per cent growth in coal production 10 years down the line as a result of coal reforms that had been us ...
Thursday, 15 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies agreed on a 100,000 b/d output cut last week, oil flows are in the spotlight ...
Monday, 12 September 22
COAL PRICE HIKE REMAINS DIFFICULT FOR CIL: CHAIRMAN TELLS ANALYSTS - PTI
Coal India on Thursday informed investors that increasing coal prices remains difficult in the current context when the economy is grappling with h ...
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- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Planning Commission, India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
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