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Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if this negative momentum will remain in 2023, pressuring the Dry Baltic index. While the easing of Chinese Covid strict policies which coupled with the 70% coal reliance of North China for its heating boiler amidst the upcoming colder winter can trigger a demand boost for coal, we will focus on some adverse fundamentals which point to pessimistic expectations for its 2023 seaborne coal imports.
Domestic coal output on a rise.
Chinese total coal output of 4.12 billion mt in 2021 contributed around 92% of its total consumptions with 2021 imports standing at 323 million mt. In 2022, domestic production during the first three quarters stood 3.32 billion mt, an increase of +14% compared to 2021 first 3 quarters while the 2022 October output of 370m mt is up by +13m mt compared to October 2021 output. While coal represents almost 55% of China’s energy consumption and half of coal plant expansions (+197GW) are attributed to China, a growth of around 27% of its domestic coal mining capacity could cover this increase in demand. Indeed, 559m mt of coal mines are under construction and proposed as of January 2022 in China, representing 29% of the global share followed by Australia, India, and Russia. In the short-term, a shift in local production is strengthened by policymakers' decision to support national foreign reserves while the appreciation of US$ is leading to higher coal prices for Chinese power plants thus diminishing their profit margin. In addition to that, amidst the current geopolitical tension and its effect on global trade with increases materializing across all the energy commodities globally, we believe that China will keep focusing on its national power security by keeping its inventory levels high through its local production. Indeed, current levels standing at 326.7 million mt as of the end of September which is +45% above the historical average of 225m mt and +217m mt compared to the same period last year. Covid-zero Policy will determine the growth of coal demand which however remains subdued. While Covid-19 policy relaxation has begun we do not expect that a full re-opening will take place no earlier than the end of Q12023 further trimming its coal demand.
New trade patterns in question.
China's main source of coal is Indonesia with 133 million mt (98% thermal coal) being delivered so far in 2022, followed by Russia and Mongolia with 54.01m mt (68% thermal coal) and 22.38m mt (85% metallurgical coal) respectively. While Indonesia will remain the largest supplier of coal to China yet with a fall of -16.19% so far in the first ten months of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021, the rest two nations have significantly increased their market share with Mongolia and Russia posting an increase of +60% and +12.8% respectively. While ton-mile demand is benefited from cheaper Russian coal due to European sanctions and the need to alter its trade partners, an increase in Mongolian exports could absorb a share of Russian coking coal exports especially given the recent Russian transport infrastructure limitation which leads to delays in loading and arrivals. Having said that, the new Mongolian 233km Tavan Tolgoi rail line which is estimated to cut transport costs to around US$8 per tonne compared to truck transport costs, could point towards this shift. According to the president of Mongolia, this new rail line could increase coal exports to China to 50m tonnes compared to 22.38 million so far in 2022 and its record 36.24 million tonnes in 2018. In addition to this shift, other seaborne sources of metallurgical coal namely the US, Indonesia, and Canada could see their exports further decreasing from Mongolian ones. As far as the Mongolian thermal coal exports are concerned, an increase of 61% (+1.23 million mt) has materialized during the first ten months of 2022 compared to the whole of 2021. With rail infrastructure expansions, Mongolian thermal coal exports could also increase further. The real question is, does China needs all this coal? If not, based on this year's demand, decisions will be made based on costs and transport delays and in that scenario, Mongolian exports could benefit further.
By Yiannis Parganas,
Head of Research Department
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 16 September 22
DRY BULK MARKET: EU’S BAN ON RUSSIAN COAL LIFTS DEMAND DESPITE ECONOMIC HEADWINDS - BIMCO
Highlights
– The Baltic Exchange Dry Index (BDI) peaked in late May and has since fallen sharply as lower Chinese demand and adverse glob ...
Friday, 16 September 22
BIMCO EMBARKS ON NEW STANDARD FOR “QUIET ENJOYMENT”
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
A newly set-up BIMCO drafting team involving a cross-section of shipowners, charterers, financing and leasing i ...
Friday, 16 September 22
INDIAN COAL PRODUCTION TO RISE 150 PER CENT IN 10 YEARS: CENTRE - EXPRESS NEWS SERVICE
The Union Ministry of Mines is expecting 150 per cent growth in coal production 10 years down the line as a result of coal reforms that had been us ...
Thursday, 15 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies agreed on a 100,000 b/d output cut last week, oil flows are in the spotlight ...
Monday, 12 September 22
COAL PRICE HIKE REMAINS DIFFICULT FOR CIL: CHAIRMAN TELLS ANALYSTS - PTI
Coal India on Thursday informed investors that increasing coal prices remains difficult in the current context when the economy is grappling with h ...
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The University of Queensland
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
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