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Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if this negative momentum will remain in 2023, pressuring the Dry Baltic index. While the easing of Chinese Covid strict policies which coupled with the 70% coal reliance of North China for its heating boiler amidst the upcoming colder winter can trigger a demand boost for coal, we will focus on some adverse fundamentals which point to pessimistic expectations for its 2023 seaborne coal imports.
Domestic coal output on a rise.
Chinese total coal output of 4.12 billion mt in 2021 contributed around 92% of its total consumptions with 2021 imports standing at 323 million mt. In 2022, domestic production during the first three quarters stood 3.32 billion mt, an increase of +14% compared to 2021 first 3 quarters while the 2022 October output of 370m mt is up by +13m mt compared to October 2021 output. While coal represents almost 55% of China’s energy consumption and half of coal plant expansions (+197GW) are attributed to China, a growth of around 27% of its domestic coal mining capacity could cover this increase in demand. Indeed, 559m mt of coal mines are under construction and proposed as of January 2022 in China, representing 29% of the global share followed by Australia, India, and Russia. In the short-term, a shift in local production is strengthened by policymakers' decision to support national foreign reserves while the appreciation of US$ is leading to higher coal prices for Chinese power plants thus diminishing their profit margin. In addition to that, amidst the current geopolitical tension and its effect on global trade with increases materializing across all the energy commodities globally, we believe that China will keep focusing on its national power security by keeping its inventory levels high through its local production. Indeed, current levels standing at 326.7 million mt as of the end of September which is +45% above the historical average of 225m mt and +217m mt compared to the same period last year. Covid-zero Policy will determine the growth of coal demand which however remains subdued. While Covid-19 policy relaxation has begun we do not expect that a full re-opening will take place no earlier than the end of Q12023 further trimming its coal demand.
New trade patterns in question.
China's main source of coal is Indonesia with 133 million mt (98% thermal coal) being delivered so far in 2022, followed by Russia and Mongolia with 54.01m mt (68% thermal coal) and 22.38m mt (85% metallurgical coal) respectively. While Indonesia will remain the largest supplier of coal to China yet with a fall of -16.19% so far in the first ten months of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021, the rest two nations have significantly increased their market share with Mongolia and Russia posting an increase of +60% and +12.8% respectively. While ton-mile demand is benefited from cheaper Russian coal due to European sanctions and the need to alter its trade partners, an increase in Mongolian exports could absorb a share of Russian coking coal exports especially given the recent Russian transport infrastructure limitation which leads to delays in loading and arrivals. Having said that, the new Mongolian 233km Tavan Tolgoi rail line which is estimated to cut transport costs to around US$8 per tonne compared to truck transport costs, could point towards this shift. According to the president of Mongolia, this new rail line could increase coal exports to China to 50m tonnes compared to 22.38 million so far in 2022 and its record 36.24 million tonnes in 2018. In addition to this shift, other seaborne sources of metallurgical coal namely the US, Indonesia, and Canada could see their exports further decreasing from Mongolian ones. As far as the Mongolian thermal coal exports are concerned, an increase of 61% (+1.23 million mt) has materialized during the first ten months of 2022 compared to the whole of 2021. With rail infrastructure expansions, Mongolian thermal coal exports could also increase further. The real question is, does China needs all this coal? If not, based on this year's demand, decisions will be made based on costs and transport delays and in that scenario, Mongolian exports could benefit further.
By Yiannis Parganas,
Head of Research Department
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 11 April 23
OIL RISES ON CHINA STIMULUS EXPECTATIONS, WEAKER DOLLAR - REUTERS
Oil prices rose on Tuesday on expectations of potential economic stimulus by China, healthy demand in the rest of Asia and a drop in U.S. crude sto ...
Sunday, 09 April 23
CHINA’S BUSINESS INCOME REBOUND POINTS TO IMPROVING ECONOMY: OFFICIAL - XINHUA
Chinese businesses have posted a strong rebound in sales revenue since the beginning of this year in the latest signal of an improving economy.
...
Sunday, 09 April 23
COAL INDIA TO BOOST SUPPLIES TO INDUSTRIES AS UTILITIES’ INVENTORIES RISE - REUTERS
Coal India Ltd will increase supplies to industries, the world’s largest coal miner said on Wednesday as fuel inventories at utilities run by ...
Thursday, 06 April 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
LNG Current Supply/Demand Dynamics
This year, LNG supply will likely exceed demand, so prices will need to decline to levels that will encourag ...
Sunday, 26 March 23
EUROPE’S RUSH TO LNG COULD TURN INTO 'WORLD’S MOST EXPENSIVE AND UNNECESSARY INSURANCE POLICY'- CNBC
Europe’s rapid buildout of liquefied natural gas infrastructure is on track to far exceed demand by the end of the decade, according to new r ...
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- The University of Queensland
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- White Energy Company Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
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