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Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if this negative momentum will remain in 2023, pressuring the Dry Baltic index. While the easing of Chinese Covid strict policies which coupled with the 70% coal reliance of North China for its heating boiler amidst the upcoming colder winter can trigger a demand boost for coal, we will focus on some adverse fundamentals which point to pessimistic expectations for its 2023 seaborne coal imports.
Domestic coal output on a rise.
Chinese total coal output of 4.12 billion mt in 2021 contributed around 92% of its total consumptions with 2021 imports standing at 323 million mt. In 2022, domestic production during the first three quarters stood 3.32 billion mt, an increase of +14% compared to 2021 first 3 quarters while the 2022 October output of 370m mt is up by +13m mt compared to October 2021 output. While coal represents almost 55% of China’s energy consumption and half of coal plant expansions (+197GW) are attributed to China, a growth of around 27% of its domestic coal mining capacity could cover this increase in demand. Indeed, 559m mt of coal mines are under construction and proposed as of January 2022 in China, representing 29% of the global share followed by Australia, India, and Russia. In the short-term, a shift in local production is strengthened by policymakers' decision to support national foreign reserves while the appreciation of US$ is leading to higher coal prices for Chinese power plants thus diminishing their profit margin. In addition to that, amidst the current geopolitical tension and its effect on global trade with increases materializing across all the energy commodities globally, we believe that China will keep focusing on its national power security by keeping its inventory levels high through its local production. Indeed, current levels standing at 326.7 million mt as of the end of September which is +45% above the historical average of 225m mt and +217m mt compared to the same period last year. Covid-zero Policy will determine the growth of coal demand which however remains subdued. While Covid-19 policy relaxation has begun we do not expect that a full re-opening will take place no earlier than the end of Q12023 further trimming its coal demand.
New trade patterns in question.
China's main source of coal is Indonesia with 133 million mt (98% thermal coal) being delivered so far in 2022, followed by Russia and Mongolia with 54.01m mt (68% thermal coal) and 22.38m mt (85% metallurgical coal) respectively. While Indonesia will remain the largest supplier of coal to China yet with a fall of -16.19% so far in the first ten months of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021, the rest two nations have significantly increased their market share with Mongolia and Russia posting an increase of +60% and +12.8% respectively. While ton-mile demand is benefited from cheaper Russian coal due to European sanctions and the need to alter its trade partners, an increase in Mongolian exports could absorb a share of Russian coking coal exports especially given the recent Russian transport infrastructure limitation which leads to delays in loading and arrivals. Having said that, the new Mongolian 233km Tavan Tolgoi rail line which is estimated to cut transport costs to around US$8 per tonne compared to truck transport costs, could point towards this shift. According to the president of Mongolia, this new rail line could increase coal exports to China to 50m tonnes compared to 22.38 million so far in 2022 and its record 36.24 million tonnes in 2018. In addition to this shift, other seaborne sources of metallurgical coal namely the US, Indonesia, and Canada could see their exports further decreasing from Mongolian ones. As far as the Mongolian thermal coal exports are concerned, an increase of 61% (+1.23 million mt) has materialized during the first ten months of 2022 compared to the whole of 2021. With rail infrastructure expansions, Mongolian thermal coal exports could also increase further. The real question is, does China needs all this coal? If not, based on this year's demand, decisions will be made based on costs and transport delays and in that scenario, Mongolian exports could benefit further.
By Yiannis Parganas,
Head of Research Department
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 23 May 23
INDIA: COAL OUTPUT UP 8.9%, SUPPLY RISES 11.7% IN APRIL - FINANCIAL EXPRESS
India’s coal production jumped 8.85% to 73.14 million tonne (MT) in April 2023 and the total coal despatch during the month went up 11.66% to ...
Tuesday, 23 May 23
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 4.5 PCT IN APRIL - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in April, official data showed.
The country produced 380 million tonnes of raw ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
NON-OPEC OIL SUPPLY DEVELOPMENT - OPEC
In 2022, non-OPEC supply is estimated to have increased by 1.9 mb/d y-o-y. Out of this, US liquids production increased by 1.2 mb/d, mainly on the ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
GLOBAL COAL TRADE HAS REALLY PICKED UP PACE IN RECENT MONTHS, NOW FULLY BACK TO PRE-COVID LEVELS - BANCHERO COSTA
Global coal trade has really picked up pace in recent months, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels. In Jan-Apr 2023, total global seaborne coa ...
Saturday, 20 May 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
India is one of the world's largest coal producers and one of the world's largest importers of coal. The country uses coal mainly for power ...
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- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- White Energy Company Limited
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Planning Commission, India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
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