We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if this negative momentum will remain in 2023, pressuring the Dry Baltic index. While the easing of Chinese Covid strict policies which coupled with the 70% coal reliance of North China for its heating boiler amidst the upcoming colder winter can trigger a demand boost for coal, we will focus on some adverse fundamentals which point to pessimistic expectations for its 2023 seaborne coal imports.
Domestic coal output on a rise.
Chinese total coal output of 4.12 billion mt in 2021 contributed around 92% of its total consumptions with 2021 imports standing at 323 million mt. In 2022, domestic production during the first three quarters stood 3.32 billion mt, an increase of +14% compared to 2021 first 3 quarters while the 2022 October output of 370m mt is up by +13m mt compared to October 2021 output. While coal represents almost 55% of China’s energy consumption and half of coal plant expansions (+197GW) are attributed to China, a growth of around 27% of its domestic coal mining capacity could cover this increase in demand. Indeed, 559m mt of coal mines are under construction and proposed as of January 2022 in China, representing 29% of the global share followed by Australia, India, and Russia. In the short-term, a shift in local production is strengthened by policymakers' decision to support national foreign reserves while the appreciation of US$ is leading to higher coal prices for Chinese power plants thus diminishing their profit margin. In addition to that, amidst the current geopolitical tension and its effect on global trade with increases materializing across all the energy commodities globally, we believe that China will keep focusing on its national power security by keeping its inventory levels high through its local production. Indeed, current levels standing at 326.7 million mt as of the end of September which is +45% above the historical average of 225m mt and +217m mt compared to the same period last year. Covid-zero Policy will determine the growth of coal demand which however remains subdued. While Covid-19 policy relaxation has begun we do not expect that a full re-opening will take place no earlier than the end of Q12023 further trimming its coal demand.
New trade patterns in question.
China's main source of coal is Indonesia with 133 million mt (98% thermal coal) being delivered so far in 2022, followed by Russia and Mongolia with 54.01m mt (68% thermal coal) and 22.38m mt (85% metallurgical coal) respectively. While Indonesia will remain the largest supplier of coal to China yet with a fall of -16.19% so far in the first ten months of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021, the rest two nations have significantly increased their market share with Mongolia and Russia posting an increase of +60% and +12.8% respectively. While ton-mile demand is benefited from cheaper Russian coal due to European sanctions and the need to alter its trade partners, an increase in Mongolian exports could absorb a share of Russian coking coal exports especially given the recent Russian transport infrastructure limitation which leads to delays in loading and arrivals. Having said that, the new Mongolian 233km Tavan Tolgoi rail line which is estimated to cut transport costs to around US$8 per tonne compared to truck transport costs, could point towards this shift. According to the president of Mongolia, this new rail line could increase coal exports to China to 50m tonnes compared to 22.38 million so far in 2022 and its record 36.24 million tonnes in 2018. In addition to this shift, other seaborne sources of metallurgical coal namely the US, Indonesia, and Canada could see their exports further decreasing from Mongolian ones. As far as the Mongolian thermal coal exports are concerned, an increase of 61% (+1.23 million mt) has materialized during the first ten months of 2022 compared to the whole of 2021. With rail infrastructure expansions, Mongolian thermal coal exports could also increase further. The real question is, does China needs all this coal? If not, based on this year's demand, decisions will be made based on costs and transport delays and in that scenario, Mongolian exports could benefit further.
By Yiannis Parganas,
Head of Research Department
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Wednesday, 21 June 23
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA RECOVER TO PRE-BAN LEVELS - REUTERS
Australian coal sales to China increased in May, as trade resumed between them even as overall coal demand weakened against an uncertain macroecono ...
Monday, 19 June 23
DROUGHT-DEPLETED HYDROPOWER DRIVES CHINA TO TURN TO COAL - REUTERS
China has leant hard on coal-fired power plants as well as wind and solar generators to make up for a shortfall in hydroelectric generation as a re ...
Monday, 19 June 23
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 4.2 PCT IN MAY - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted steady growth in May, official data showed.
The country produced 390 million tonnes of raw coal ...
Wednesday, 24 May 23
AMMONIA-FUELLED BULK CARRIERS WITHIN FIVE YEARS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Within five years, ships powered by clean ammonia could be a feature on the iron ore trade routes between West Australia and East Asia.
A study ...
Tuesday, 23 May 23
CHINA'S APRIL COAL OUTPUT LEAPS 11% ON YEAR, BUT DEMAND DOWNTURN LOOMS - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output in April jumped 11% from the same month a year earlier, boosted by Beijing’s order to increase supply to ensu ...
|
|
|
Showing 96 to 100 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Parliament of New Zealand
- White Energy Company Limited
- Australian Coal Association
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- The University of Queensland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Economic Council, Georgia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
|
| |
| |
|
