We welcome article submissions from experts in the areas of coal, mining,
shipping, etc.
To Submit your article please click here.
|
|
|
Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if this negative momentum will remain in 2023, pressuring the Dry Baltic index. While the easing of Chinese Covid strict policies which coupled with the 70% coal reliance of North China for its heating boiler amidst the upcoming colder winter can trigger a demand boost for coal, we will focus on some adverse fundamentals which point to pessimistic expectations for its 2023 seaborne coal imports.
Domestic coal output on a rise.
Chinese total coal output of 4.12 billion mt in 2021 contributed around 92% of its total consumptions with 2021 imports standing at 323 million mt. In 2022, domestic production during the first three quarters stood 3.32 billion mt, an increase of +14% compared to 2021 first 3 quarters while the 2022 October output of 370m mt is up by +13m mt compared to October 2021 output. While coal represents almost 55% of China’s energy consumption and half of coal plant expansions (+197GW) are attributed to China, a growth of around 27% of its domestic coal mining capacity could cover this increase in demand. Indeed, 559m mt of coal mines are under construction and proposed as of January 2022 in China, representing 29% of the global share followed by Australia, India, and Russia. In the short-term, a shift in local production is strengthened by policymakers' decision to support national foreign reserves while the appreciation of US$ is leading to higher coal prices for Chinese power plants thus diminishing their profit margin. In addition to that, amidst the current geopolitical tension and its effect on global trade with increases materializing across all the energy commodities globally, we believe that China will keep focusing on its national power security by keeping its inventory levels high through its local production. Indeed, current levels standing at 326.7 million mt as of the end of September which is +45% above the historical average of 225m mt and +217m mt compared to the same period last year. Covid-zero Policy will determine the growth of coal demand which however remains subdued. While Covid-19 policy relaxation has begun we do not expect that a full re-opening will take place no earlier than the end of Q12023 further trimming its coal demand.
New trade patterns in question.
China's main source of coal is Indonesia with 133 million mt (98% thermal coal) being delivered so far in 2022, followed by Russia and Mongolia with 54.01m mt (68% thermal coal) and 22.38m mt (85% metallurgical coal) respectively. While Indonesia will remain the largest supplier of coal to China yet with a fall of -16.19% so far in the first ten months of 2022 compared to the same period in 2021, the rest two nations have significantly increased their market share with Mongolia and Russia posting an increase of +60% and +12.8% respectively. While ton-mile demand is benefited from cheaper Russian coal due to European sanctions and the need to alter its trade partners, an increase in Mongolian exports could absorb a share of Russian coking coal exports especially given the recent Russian transport infrastructure limitation which leads to delays in loading and arrivals. Having said that, the new Mongolian 233km Tavan Tolgoi rail line which is estimated to cut transport costs to around US$8 per tonne compared to truck transport costs, could point towards this shift. According to the president of Mongolia, this new rail line could increase coal exports to China to 50m tonnes compared to 22.38 million so far in 2022 and its record 36.24 million tonnes in 2018. In addition to this shift, other seaborne sources of metallurgical coal namely the US, Indonesia, and Canada could see their exports further decreasing from Mongolian ones. As far as the Mongolian thermal coal exports are concerned, an increase of 61% (+1.23 million mt) has materialized during the first ten months of 2022 compared to the whole of 2021. With rail infrastructure expansions, Mongolian thermal coal exports could also increase further. The real question is, does China needs all this coal? If not, based on this year's demand, decisions will be made based on costs and transport delays and in that scenario, Mongolian exports could benefit further.
By Yiannis Parganas,
Head of Research Department
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
The Information contained within the website of COALspot.com is intended for informational purposes only and is not intended as professional counsel and should not be used as such.
If you believe an article violates your rights or the rights of others, please contact us.
|
|
Wednesday, 22 March 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The crude tanker market continues to gather momentum as we head towards the end of 1Q2023, against a backdrop of strong U.S. exports paired with a ...
Wednesday, 22 March 23
WILL LOWER GAS PRICES SPARK SWITCHING IN EUROPE AND ASIA?
Record high prices devastated demand for gas and LNG across Asia and Europe last year. But with prices falling, companies are starting to re-evalua ...
Monday, 20 March 23
NTPC MULLS 5.4 MILLION TONNES COAL IMPORT IN FIRST HALF OF 2023-24: PTI
State-run power giant NTPC is planning to import around 5.4 million tonnes of coal to meet the supply shortage during the first half 2023-24 fiscal ...
Monday, 20 March 23
S. AFRICA’S EXXARO RESOURCES SAYS COAL PRICES COOLING OFF - REUTERS
South Africa’s Exxaro Resources on Thursday posted a 28% jump in 2022 profit after seeing average coal prices surge more than 150%, but warne ...
Saturday, 18 March 23
RUSSIAN LNG EXPORTS TO EUROPE REMAIN HIGH - VESSELS VALUE
Russian LNG exports to Europe remained at very high levels in February at 3.6 million CBM, following a 13 month high in January of 4.1 million CBM. ...
|
|
|
Showing 121 to 125 news of total 6871 |
|
 |
|
|
|
|
| |
|
 |
|
|
| |
|
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- The University of Queensland
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Australian Coal Association
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- PTC India Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
|
| |
| |
|
