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Monday, 10 October 22
ENERGY TRANSITION BOOSTS GLOBAL LONG-TERM DEMAND FOR METALS - FITCH RATINGS
 The energy transition will significantly increase demand for metals used in manufacturing of electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable power generation facilities, such as copper, nickel, cobalt and lithium, Fitch Ratings says. This will require a vast supply response in the next two decades and investments from miners, although we view the repositioning of their businesses towards a higher share of energy-transition metals in revenue and cash flows as credit positive.
EVs and renewable generation are more metal-intensive than fossil fuel-based alternatives. This will support metals demand as the world transitions towards a carbon-free economy, leading to a six-fold increase in demand for minerals by 2050 compared to current levels, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Growth rates for each metal will vary and will depend on technologies chosen for batteries and power generation and environmental policies. We anticipate demand for energy-transition metals to peak by the 2040s, when the bulk of low-emission infrastructure will have been built.
However, rapid demand growth may not necessarily be met with an equivalent supply-side response. We estimate the level of available resources to be sufficient, but mineral resources are often geographically concentrated and their extraction may be subject to challenges. Mining projects have long lead times and require large investments. Lead times from resource discovery to production average 17 years, including 12.5 years from discovery to feasibility and 4.5 years for planning and construction, according to the IEA. Copper, cobalt and nickel projects have the longest lead times. By comparison, lithium deposits have shorter lead times, of about seven years.
CRU estimates that most markets for energy-transition metals will remain balanced over the medium term as committed and probable projects come online. Supply gaps might emerge after 2025, as the pipeline of new projects is not yet synchronised with the expected rise in demand created by the energy transition.
The commissioning of new projects will depend, along with the estimates of demand and return on investments, on the availability of funds for large capex projects, either internally generated or borrowed. The financial discipline of most miners has improved over the past decade, providing sufficient financial headroom for future investments. However, a prolonged period of low commodity prices might result in delayed investment decisions.
We view the exposure to energy-transition metals among Fitch-rated miners as credit positive. Several mining companies’ credit profiles, including that of Anglo American, have benefited from a growing share of these metals.
However, market participants now expect miners to deliver increasing volumes of metals required for the energy transition without compromising ESG standards. The key challenge is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions across the metal value chain. Emissions intensity of cobalt, aluminium and nickel mining and processing is high, so skyrocketing demand may result in rising net carbon footprints.
Electricity generation is the largest source of emissions in metals production, and therefore decarbonisation of power sources through shifting from coal to renewables will help reduce emissions. Changes in production technologies and increased metal recycling will cut carbon intensity further.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 19 October 22
WHAT WILL THE GAS MARKET LOOK LIKE IN A NET ZERO WORLD? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The global gas and LNG market faces a number of ‘great unknowns’. With the market in turmoil uncertainty abounds – from the scale ...
Wednesday, 19 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
The LNG market remains extremely tight, and as a result adding further pressure on the vessel charter market, which is already stretched due to the ...
Sunday, 16 October 22
COULD A RETURN TO SHALE EXPLORATION BE PART OF THE SOLUTION TO EUROPE'S GAS SUPPLY PROBLEM? - WOOD MACKENZIE
The European gas market is in turmoil. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has shaken things up, triggering a complete rethink of European energy st ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
THERMAL COAL PRICES RETREAT AS WINTER SUPPLY FEARS EASE - REUTERS
The prices of key thermal seaborne coal grades are retreating amid signs that supplies will be sufficient to meet winter demand in both Europe and ...
Thursday, 13 October 22
SPOT COAL BIDDING: CHINESE FIRM WANTS REVISED MECHANISM - BUSINESS RECORDER
Chinese company M/s Huaneng Shandong Ruyi (Pakistan) Energy Limited (HSR) has cautioned National Electric Power Regulatory Authority (Nepra) that i ...
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PTC India Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The University of Queensland
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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