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Monday, 10 October 22
ENERGY TRANSITION BOOSTS GLOBAL LONG-TERM DEMAND FOR METALS - FITCH RATINGS
 The energy transition will significantly increase demand for metals used in manufacturing of electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable power generation facilities, such as copper, nickel, cobalt and lithium, Fitch Ratings says. This will require a vast supply response in the next two decades and investments from miners, although we view the repositioning of their businesses towards a higher share of energy-transition metals in revenue and cash flows as credit positive.
EVs and renewable generation are more metal-intensive than fossil fuel-based alternatives. This will support metals demand as the world transitions towards a carbon-free economy, leading to a six-fold increase in demand for minerals by 2050 compared to current levels, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Growth rates for each metal will vary and will depend on technologies chosen for batteries and power generation and environmental policies. We anticipate demand for energy-transition metals to peak by the 2040s, when the bulk of low-emission infrastructure will have been built.
However, rapid demand growth may not necessarily be met with an equivalent supply-side response. We estimate the level of available resources to be sufficient, but mineral resources are often geographically concentrated and their extraction may be subject to challenges. Mining projects have long lead times and require large investments. Lead times from resource discovery to production average 17 years, including 12.5 years from discovery to feasibility and 4.5 years for planning and construction, according to the IEA. Copper, cobalt and nickel projects have the longest lead times. By comparison, lithium deposits have shorter lead times, of about seven years.
CRU estimates that most markets for energy-transition metals will remain balanced over the medium term as committed and probable projects come online. Supply gaps might emerge after 2025, as the pipeline of new projects is not yet synchronised with the expected rise in demand created by the energy transition.
The commissioning of new projects will depend, along with the estimates of demand and return on investments, on the availability of funds for large capex projects, either internally generated or borrowed. The financial discipline of most miners has improved over the past decade, providing sufficient financial headroom for future investments. However, a prolonged period of low commodity prices might result in delayed investment decisions.
We view the exposure to energy-transition metals among Fitch-rated miners as credit positive. Several mining companies’ credit profiles, including that of Anglo American, have benefited from a growing share of these metals.
However, market participants now expect miners to deliver increasing volumes of metals required for the energy transition without compromising ESG standards. The key challenge is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions across the metal value chain. Emissions intensity of cobalt, aluminium and nickel mining and processing is high, so skyrocketing demand may result in rising net carbon footprints.
Electricity generation is the largest source of emissions in metals production, and therefore decarbonisation of power sources through shifting from coal to renewables will help reduce emissions. Changes in production technologies and increased metal recycling will cut carbon intensity further.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Friday, 04 November 22
CHINA EXPANDS COAL TERM CONTRACTS TO ALL MINES TO STABILIZE MARKET - REUTERS
China has expanded long-term thermal coal supply contracts for 2023 to all coal mines and asked power utilities to source more of their demand thro ...
Thursday, 03 November 22
HANDYSIZE VALUES MOVING UP IN OCTOBER, WHILE LNG VALUES SKYROCKET - VESSELSVALUE
Handysize values have increased this month across most ages, following a period of decline. Values for generic 10 year old Handysizes have moved up ...
Thursday, 03 November 22
EUROPEAN GAS SUPPLY SURPLUS, NOVEMBER HBA DOWN TO US$ 308.2 PER TON - ESDM
European gas supply conditions have a major influence in determining fluctuations in the Reference Coal Price (HBA). The November 2022 HBA recorded ...
Wednesday, 02 November 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Only five weeks before western sanctions’ full effect, uncertainty over energy has markets and governments on the edge. What was initially th ...
Tuesday, 01 November 22
CHINA COAL TRADE DISRUPTED BY COVID OUTBREAKS AS WINTER LOOMS - REUTERS
China’s strict COVID-19 policy is constraining coal supplies and pushing up prices, industry officials and traders say, just weeks before the ...
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- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Planning Commission, India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- PTC India Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
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