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Monday, 10 October 22
ENERGY TRANSITION BOOSTS GLOBAL LONG-TERM DEMAND FOR METALS - FITCH RATINGS
 The energy transition will significantly increase demand for metals used in manufacturing of electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable power generation facilities, such as copper, nickel, cobalt and lithium, Fitch Ratings says. This will require a vast supply response in the next two decades and investments from miners, although we view the repositioning of their businesses towards a higher share of energy-transition metals in revenue and cash flows as credit positive.
EVs and renewable generation are more metal-intensive than fossil fuel-based alternatives. This will support metals demand as the world transitions towards a carbon-free economy, leading to a six-fold increase in demand for minerals by 2050 compared to current levels, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Growth rates for each metal will vary and will depend on technologies chosen for batteries and power generation and environmental policies. We anticipate demand for energy-transition metals to peak by the 2040s, when the bulk of low-emission infrastructure will have been built.
However, rapid demand growth may not necessarily be met with an equivalent supply-side response. We estimate the level of available resources to be sufficient, but mineral resources are often geographically concentrated and their extraction may be subject to challenges. Mining projects have long lead times and require large investments. Lead times from resource discovery to production average 17 years, including 12.5 years from discovery to feasibility and 4.5 years for planning and construction, according to the IEA. Copper, cobalt and nickel projects have the longest lead times. By comparison, lithium deposits have shorter lead times, of about seven years.
CRU estimates that most markets for energy-transition metals will remain balanced over the medium term as committed and probable projects come online. Supply gaps might emerge after 2025, as the pipeline of new projects is not yet synchronised with the expected rise in demand created by the energy transition.
The commissioning of new projects will depend, along with the estimates of demand and return on investments, on the availability of funds for large capex projects, either internally generated or borrowed. The financial discipline of most miners has improved over the past decade, providing sufficient financial headroom for future investments. However, a prolonged period of low commodity prices might result in delayed investment decisions.
We view the exposure to energy-transition metals among Fitch-rated miners as credit positive. Several mining companies’ credit profiles, including that of Anglo American, have benefited from a growing share of these metals.
However, market participants now expect miners to deliver increasing volumes of metals required for the energy transition without compromising ESG standards. The key challenge is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions across the metal value chain. Emissions intensity of cobalt, aluminium and nickel mining and processing is high, so skyrocketing demand may result in rising net carbon footprints.
Electricity generation is the largest source of emissions in metals production, and therefore decarbonisation of power sources through shifting from coal to renewables will help reduce emissions. Changes in production technologies and increased metal recycling will cut carbon intensity further.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 29 November 22
SEABORNE COAL FLOWS IN 2022 - SIGNAL
This year is crucial for the energy mix in European countries, as the EU has imposed new sanctions on Russia. It is important to emphasize that the ...
Friday, 25 November 22
APAC THERMAL COAL PRICES CORRECT FROM RECORD HIGH - FITCH RATINGS
Prices of Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg coal have corrected following falling European gas and coal prices, and more supply from Australia could help miti ...
Thursday, 24 November 22
VIETNAM BOOSTS COAL USE PLAN FOR 2030 AS G7 CLIMATE OFFER STALLS - REUTERS
Vietnam has increased its coal power target for 2030 under a revised draft energy plan, government documents seen by Reuters show, while renewables ...
Tuesday, 22 November 22
THE GENCON 2022 CHARTERPARTY - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
BIMCO has published a revamped version of the popular GENCON charterparty. Our author, Helena Biggs, was a member of the ...
Tuesday, 22 November 22
INDIA POWER BINGES ON COAL, OUTPACES ASIA - REUTERS
India’s coal-fired power output has increased much faster than any other country in the Asia Pacific since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine ...
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- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- White Energy Company Limited
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- The University of Queensland
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
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