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Monday, 10 October 22
ENERGY TRANSITION BOOSTS GLOBAL LONG-TERM DEMAND FOR METALS - FITCH RATINGS
 The energy transition will significantly increase demand for metals used in manufacturing of electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable power generation facilities, such as copper, nickel, cobalt and lithium, Fitch Ratings says. This will require a vast supply response in the next two decades and investments from miners, although we view the repositioning of their businesses towards a higher share of energy-transition metals in revenue and cash flows as credit positive.
EVs and renewable generation are more metal-intensive than fossil fuel-based alternatives. This will support metals demand as the world transitions towards a carbon-free economy, leading to a six-fold increase in demand for minerals by 2050 compared to current levels, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Growth rates for each metal will vary and will depend on technologies chosen for batteries and power generation and environmental policies. We anticipate demand for energy-transition metals to peak by the 2040s, when the bulk of low-emission infrastructure will have been built.
However, rapid demand growth may not necessarily be met with an equivalent supply-side response. We estimate the level of available resources to be sufficient, but mineral resources are often geographically concentrated and their extraction may be subject to challenges. Mining projects have long lead times and require large investments. Lead times from resource discovery to production average 17 years, including 12.5 years from discovery to feasibility and 4.5 years for planning and construction, according to the IEA. Copper, cobalt and nickel projects have the longest lead times. By comparison, lithium deposits have shorter lead times, of about seven years.
CRU estimates that most markets for energy-transition metals will remain balanced over the medium term as committed and probable projects come online. Supply gaps might emerge after 2025, as the pipeline of new projects is not yet synchronised with the expected rise in demand created by the energy transition.
The commissioning of new projects will depend, along with the estimates of demand and return on investments, on the availability of funds for large capex projects, either internally generated or borrowed. The financial discipline of most miners has improved over the past decade, providing sufficient financial headroom for future investments. However, a prolonged period of low commodity prices might result in delayed investment decisions.
We view the exposure to energy-transition metals among Fitch-rated miners as credit positive. Several mining companies’ credit profiles, including that of Anglo American, have benefited from a growing share of these metals.
However, market participants now expect miners to deliver increasing volumes of metals required for the energy transition without compromising ESG standards. The key challenge is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions across the metal value chain. Emissions intensity of cobalt, aluminium and nickel mining and processing is high, so skyrocketing demand may result in rising net carbon footprints.
Electricity generation is the largest source of emissions in metals production, and therefore decarbonisation of power sources through shifting from coal to renewables will help reduce emissions. Changes in production technologies and increased metal recycling will cut carbon intensity further.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Tuesday, 29 November 22
SEABORNE COAL FLOWS IN 2022 - SIGNAL
This year is crucial for the energy mix in European countries, as the EU has imposed new sanctions on Russia. It is important to emphasize that the ...
Friday, 25 November 22
APAC THERMAL COAL PRICES CORRECT FROM RECORD HIGH - FITCH RATINGS
Prices of Newcastle 6,000kcal/kg coal have corrected following falling European gas and coal prices, and more supply from Australia could help miti ...
Thursday, 24 November 22
VIETNAM BOOSTS COAL USE PLAN FOR 2030 AS G7 CLIMATE OFFER STALLS - REUTERS
Vietnam has increased its coal power target for 2030 under a revised draft energy plan, government documents seen by Reuters show, while renewables ...
Tuesday, 22 November 22
THE GENCON 2022 CHARTERPARTY - GARD
KNOWLEDGE TO ELEVATE
BIMCO has published a revamped version of the popular GENCON charterparty. Our author, Helena Biggs, was a member of the ...
Tuesday, 22 November 22
INDIA POWER BINGES ON COAL, OUTPACES ASIA - REUTERS
India’s coal-fired power output has increased much faster than any other country in the Asia Pacific since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine ...
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- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Planning Commission, India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- The University of Queensland
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- PTC India Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
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