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Monday, 10 October 22
ENERGY TRANSITION BOOSTS GLOBAL LONG-TERM DEMAND FOR METALS - FITCH RATINGS
 The energy transition will significantly increase demand for metals used in manufacturing of electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable power generation facilities, such as copper, nickel, cobalt and lithium, Fitch Ratings says. This will require a vast supply response in the next two decades and investments from miners, although we view the repositioning of their businesses towards a higher share of energy-transition metals in revenue and cash flows as credit positive.
EVs and renewable generation are more metal-intensive than fossil fuel-based alternatives. This will support metals demand as the world transitions towards a carbon-free economy, leading to a six-fold increase in demand for minerals by 2050 compared to current levels, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Growth rates for each metal will vary and will depend on technologies chosen for batteries and power generation and environmental policies. We anticipate demand for energy-transition metals to peak by the 2040s, when the bulk of low-emission infrastructure will have been built.
However, rapid demand growth may not necessarily be met with an equivalent supply-side response. We estimate the level of available resources to be sufficient, but mineral resources are often geographically concentrated and their extraction may be subject to challenges. Mining projects have long lead times and require large investments. Lead times from resource discovery to production average 17 years, including 12.5 years from discovery to feasibility and 4.5 years for planning and construction, according to the IEA. Copper, cobalt and nickel projects have the longest lead times. By comparison, lithium deposits have shorter lead times, of about seven years.
CRU estimates that most markets for energy-transition metals will remain balanced over the medium term as committed and probable projects come online. Supply gaps might emerge after 2025, as the pipeline of new projects is not yet synchronised with the expected rise in demand created by the energy transition.
The commissioning of new projects will depend, along with the estimates of demand and return on investments, on the availability of funds for large capex projects, either internally generated or borrowed. The financial discipline of most miners has improved over the past decade, providing sufficient financial headroom for future investments. However, a prolonged period of low commodity prices might result in delayed investment decisions.
We view the exposure to energy-transition metals among Fitch-rated miners as credit positive. Several mining companies’ credit profiles, including that of Anglo American, have benefited from a growing share of these metals.
However, market participants now expect miners to deliver increasing volumes of metals required for the energy transition without compromising ESG standards. The key challenge is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions across the metal value chain. Emissions intensity of cobalt, aluminium and nickel mining and processing is high, so skyrocketing demand may result in rising net carbon footprints.
Electricity generation is the largest source of emissions in metals production, and therefore decarbonisation of power sources through shifting from coal to renewables will help reduce emissions. Changes in production technologies and increased metal recycling will cut carbon intensity further.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if t ...
Wednesday, 07 December 22
INDIA'S STEEL MINISTRY SEEKS IMPORT TAX WAIVER FOR COKING COAL - SOURCES REUTERS REPORTED
India’s steel ministry has asked the finance ministry for a waiver of import tax on coking coal among a slew of raw materials, as it scramble ...
Tuesday, 06 December 22
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 17% IN APR-NOV PERIOD - PTI
The country’s coal production increased 17 per cent to 524.20 million tonnes in the April-November period of the ongoing fiscal.
...
Tuesday, 06 December 22
INDONESIA AIMS TO STARTS COLLECTING COAL LEVY IN Q1 2023 - MINISTER, REUTERS REPORTED
Indonesia aims to establish a coal fund agency and start collecting a coal levy in the first quarter next year, to help ensure supply security for ...
Saturday, 03 December 22
COMPLEX RUSSIAN PRICE CAP MAKES MARITIME VISIBILITY A MUST - WINDWARD
Many commentators and analysts are speculating about the potential impact the Russian seaborne oil price cap will have on organizations and entitie ...
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- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Australian Coal Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Economic Council, Georgia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- The University of Queensland
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- White Energy Company Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- The Treasury - Australian Government
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