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Monday, 10 October 22
ENERGY TRANSITION BOOSTS GLOBAL LONG-TERM DEMAND FOR METALS - FITCH RATINGS
 The energy transition will significantly increase demand for metals used in manufacturing of electric vehicles (EVs) and renewable power generation facilities, such as copper, nickel, cobalt and lithium, Fitch Ratings says. This will require a vast supply response in the next two decades and investments from miners, although we view the repositioning of their businesses towards a higher share of energy-transition metals in revenue and cash flows as credit positive.
EVs and renewable generation are more metal-intensive than fossil fuel-based alternatives. This will support metals demand as the world transitions towards a carbon-free economy, leading to a six-fold increase in demand for minerals by 2050 compared to current levels, according to the International Energy Agency (IEA). Growth rates for each metal will vary and will depend on technologies chosen for batteries and power generation and environmental policies. We anticipate demand for energy-transition metals to peak by the 2040s, when the bulk of low-emission infrastructure will have been built.
However, rapid demand growth may not necessarily be met with an equivalent supply-side response. We estimate the level of available resources to be sufficient, but mineral resources are often geographically concentrated and their extraction may be subject to challenges. Mining projects have long lead times and require large investments. Lead times from resource discovery to production average 17 years, including 12.5 years from discovery to feasibility and 4.5 years for planning and construction, according to the IEA. Copper, cobalt and nickel projects have the longest lead times. By comparison, lithium deposits have shorter lead times, of about seven years.
CRU estimates that most markets for energy-transition metals will remain balanced over the medium term as committed and probable projects come online. Supply gaps might emerge after 2025, as the pipeline of new projects is not yet synchronised with the expected rise in demand created by the energy transition.
The commissioning of new projects will depend, along with the estimates of demand and return on investments, on the availability of funds for large capex projects, either internally generated or borrowed. The financial discipline of most miners has improved over the past decade, providing sufficient financial headroom for future investments. However, a prolonged period of low commodity prices might result in delayed investment decisions.
We view the exposure to energy-transition metals among Fitch-rated miners as credit positive. Several mining companies’ credit profiles, including that of Anglo American, have benefited from a growing share of these metals.
However, market participants now expect miners to deliver increasing volumes of metals required for the energy transition without compromising ESG standards. The key challenge is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions across the metal value chain. Emissions intensity of cobalt, aluminium and nickel mining and processing is high, so skyrocketing demand may result in rising net carbon footprints.
Electricity generation is the largest source of emissions in metals production, and therefore decarbonisation of power sources through shifting from coal to renewables will help reduce emissions. Changes in production technologies and increased metal recycling will cut carbon intensity further.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if t ...
Wednesday, 07 December 22
INDIA'S STEEL MINISTRY SEEKS IMPORT TAX WAIVER FOR COKING COAL - SOURCES REUTERS REPORTED
India’s steel ministry has asked the finance ministry for a waiver of import tax on coking coal among a slew of raw materials, as it scramble ...
Tuesday, 06 December 22
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 17% IN APR-NOV PERIOD - PTI
The country’s coal production increased 17 per cent to 524.20 million tonnes in the April-November period of the ongoing fiscal.
...
Tuesday, 06 December 22
INDONESIA AIMS TO STARTS COLLECTING COAL LEVY IN Q1 2023 - MINISTER, REUTERS REPORTED
Indonesia aims to establish a coal fund agency and start collecting a coal levy in the first quarter next year, to help ensure supply security for ...
Saturday, 03 December 22
COMPLEX RUSSIAN PRICE CAP MAKES MARITIME VISIBILITY A MUST - WINDWARD
Many commentators and analysts are speculating about the potential impact the Russian seaborne oil price cap will have on organizations and entitie ...
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- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Economic Council, Georgia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- PTC India Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Australian Coal Association
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
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