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Wednesday, 05 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the looming western sanctions on Russia, the country is challenged to pivot its energy markets away from Europe and toward the East. Yet, Russia has been considering exports of oil and gas from its Eastern territories to Asia-Pacific countries since the early 1970s, when the authorities recognized an opportunity to supplement the country’s West Siberian Output. Political instabilities, though, paired with uncertainty on Chinese and Japanese demand have substantially obstructed any course of action.
Pre-invasion, 60% of the country’s oil exports were directed to European countries and about 20% to China, either through pipelines or via seaborne routes, making it, thus, easier to redirect compared to gas. However, since the invasion of Ukraine and the announcement of sanctions, oil has gradually shifted towards the main Asian importers, China, and India, and to some new, albeit considerably smaller, customers, such as Sri Lanka, Egypt, and Indonesia. It is questioned, though, how effectively the country’s exports will be redirected to its emerging Asian customers.
Currently, 85% of the country’s production is clustered around West Siberia, Timan-Pechora, and the Volga Urals. As a result, exports are heavily concentrated in the Black Sea and Baltic ports, thus, trebling the voyage distance and inflating costs and freights. Due to logistic issues and insufficient infrastructure between the above regions and the country’s eastern terminals, the redirection of the country’s oil exports is challenged.
The maturity of the Western fields paired with the western sanctions on oil have urged the country to increase production from its East Siberian fields. During the past decade, East Siberian oil output gradually surged to 700,000 b/d. Meanwhile, the oil output from its mature West Siberian fields is estimated to decrease by 2m b/d over the next decade. Rosneft’s new Vostok Oil Megaproject, located at the northern junction of East and West Siberia, is set to add 1.5m b/d by 2030, with a target of 2m b/d. The project also includes the construction of Bukhta Sever Port which is set to become the country’s largest oil terminal and facilitate the development of the Northern Sea Route, while it is also going to test the country’s resilience to western sanctions. Since the voyage distance via the Northern Sea Route to the Far East could save up to 20 days off the shipping time spent compared to the Suez Canal route, vessels’ tonne-miles could be almost halved. Although the North Sea Route will provide more flexibility to the shippers and facilitate the current supply chain constraints, it is expected to provide some inconvenience as well due to its operational seasonality. Arctic sea lanes are estimated to be ice-free during the summertime by 2035, according to scientists, however, the lack of predictability will continue to overweigh the savings on shipping costs and time.
Overall, in the mid-term and within the next five years, the global oil market will be highly volatile and fragmented. Russia will be forced to reposition itself amid the realignment of the energy markets, however, the efficiency of the country’s relationship establishment with Asian customers is yet to be witnessed.
By Chara Georgousi
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 19 December 22
ENERGY CRISIS FUELS COAL COMEBACK IN GERMANY - REUTERS
Coal has made a comeback in Germany this year, as Europe’s largest economy turns to the dirty fuel to power it through an energy crisis.
...
Thursday, 15 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While observing the ship repair market very close to the end of the year, we are confident that shipyards worldwide are entering a new era. The nex ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
STRONG COAL PRICES SUPPORT ROBUST EARNINGS AT INDONESIAN COAL MINERS - FITCH RATINGS
Fitch Ratings expects cash flow generation at Indonesian coal miners to remain strong in 2023, based on its forecast for coal prices to remain high ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
BIMCO CII CLAUSE FINALLY RELEASED: DOES IT MAKE ANY SENSE OF CCI? - WFW
WHAT IS CII?
The new International Maritime Organisation’s (“IMO’s”) Carbon Intensity Indicator (“CII”) cer ...
Tuesday, 13 December 22
COAL BASE RAMPS UP ENERGY SUPPLY FOR WINTER NEEDS - XINHUA
Inner Mongolia Autonomous Region, China’s leading coal production base, has kicked its production into high gear to meet heating needs as col ...
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- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- White Energy Company Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Australian Coal Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- The University of Queensland
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
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