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Wednesday, 05 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the looming western sanctions on Russia, the country is challenged to pivot its energy markets away from Europe and toward the East. Yet, Russia has been considering exports of oil and gas from its Eastern territories to Asia-Pacific countries since the early 1970s, when the authorities recognized an opportunity to supplement the country’s West Siberian Output. Political instabilities, though, paired with uncertainty on Chinese and Japanese demand have substantially obstructed any course of action.
Pre-invasion, 60% of the country’s oil exports were directed to European countries and about 20% to China, either through pipelines or via seaborne routes, making it, thus, easier to redirect compared to gas. However, since the invasion of Ukraine and the announcement of sanctions, oil has gradually shifted towards the main Asian importers, China, and India, and to some new, albeit considerably smaller, customers, such as Sri Lanka, Egypt, and Indonesia. It is questioned, though, how effectively the country’s exports will be redirected to its emerging Asian customers.
Currently, 85% of the country’s production is clustered around West Siberia, Timan-Pechora, and the Volga Urals. As a result, exports are heavily concentrated in the Black Sea and Baltic ports, thus, trebling the voyage distance and inflating costs and freights. Due to logistic issues and insufficient infrastructure between the above regions and the country’s eastern terminals, the redirection of the country’s oil exports is challenged.
The maturity of the Western fields paired with the western sanctions on oil have urged the country to increase production from its East Siberian fields. During the past decade, East Siberian oil output gradually surged to 700,000 b/d. Meanwhile, the oil output from its mature West Siberian fields is estimated to decrease by 2m b/d over the next decade. Rosneft’s new Vostok Oil Megaproject, located at the northern junction of East and West Siberia, is set to add 1.5m b/d by 2030, with a target of 2m b/d. The project also includes the construction of Bukhta Sever Port which is set to become the country’s largest oil terminal and facilitate the development of the Northern Sea Route, while it is also going to test the country’s resilience to western sanctions. Since the voyage distance via the Northern Sea Route to the Far East could save up to 20 days off the shipping time spent compared to the Suez Canal route, vessels’ tonne-miles could be almost halved. Although the North Sea Route will provide more flexibility to the shippers and facilitate the current supply chain constraints, it is expected to provide some inconvenience as well due to its operational seasonality. Arctic sea lanes are estimated to be ice-free during the summertime by 2035, according to scientists, however, the lack of predictability will continue to overweigh the savings on shipping costs and time.
Overall, in the mid-term and within the next five years, the global oil market will be highly volatile and fragmented. Russia will be forced to reposition itself amid the realignment of the energy markets, however, the efficiency of the country’s relationship establishment with Asian customers is yet to be witnessed.
By Chara Georgousi
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Wednesday, 07 December 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
China’s coal imports from January to October were 230.1m mt, a decrease of around 10.7% y-o-y (2021 totalled 323.2m mt). The question is if t ...
Wednesday, 07 December 22
INDIA'S STEEL MINISTRY SEEKS IMPORT TAX WAIVER FOR COKING COAL - SOURCES REUTERS REPORTED
India’s steel ministry has asked the finance ministry for a waiver of import tax on coking coal among a slew of raw materials, as it scramble ...
Tuesday, 06 December 22
INDIA'S COAL PRODUCTION RISES 17% IN APR-NOV PERIOD - PTI
The country’s coal production increased 17 per cent to 524.20 million tonnes in the April-November period of the ongoing fiscal.
...
Tuesday, 06 December 22
INDONESIA AIMS TO STARTS COLLECTING COAL LEVY IN Q1 2023 - MINISTER, REUTERS REPORTED
Indonesia aims to establish a coal fund agency and start collecting a coal levy in the first quarter next year, to help ensure supply security for ...
Saturday, 03 December 22
COMPLEX RUSSIAN PRICE CAP MAKES MARITIME VISIBILITY A MUST - WINDWARD
Many commentators and analysts are speculating about the potential impact the Russian seaborne oil price cap will have on organizations and entitie ...
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- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- PTC India Limited - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- The University of Queensland
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
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