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Wednesday, 05 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the looming western sanctions on Russia, the country is challenged to pivot its energy markets away from Europe and toward the East. Yet, Russia has been considering exports of oil and gas from its Eastern territories to Asia-Pacific countries since the early 1970s, when the authorities recognized an opportunity to supplement the country’s West Siberian Output. Political instabilities, though, paired with uncertainty on Chinese and Japanese demand have substantially obstructed any course of action.
Pre-invasion, 60% of the country’s oil exports were directed to European countries and about 20% to China, either through pipelines or via seaborne routes, making it, thus, easier to redirect compared to gas. However, since the invasion of Ukraine and the announcement of sanctions, oil has gradually shifted towards the main Asian importers, China, and India, and to some new, albeit considerably smaller, customers, such as Sri Lanka, Egypt, and Indonesia. It is questioned, though, how effectively the country’s exports will be redirected to its emerging Asian customers.
Currently, 85% of the country’s production is clustered around West Siberia, Timan-Pechora, and the Volga Urals. As a result, exports are heavily concentrated in the Black Sea and Baltic ports, thus, trebling the voyage distance and inflating costs and freights. Due to logistic issues and insufficient infrastructure between the above regions and the country’s eastern terminals, the redirection of the country’s oil exports is challenged.
The maturity of the Western fields paired with the western sanctions on oil have urged the country to increase production from its East Siberian fields. During the past decade, East Siberian oil output gradually surged to 700,000 b/d. Meanwhile, the oil output from its mature West Siberian fields is estimated to decrease by 2m b/d over the next decade. Rosneft’s new Vostok Oil Megaproject, located at the northern junction of East and West Siberia, is set to add 1.5m b/d by 2030, with a target of 2m b/d. The project also includes the construction of Bukhta Sever Port which is set to become the country’s largest oil terminal and facilitate the development of the Northern Sea Route, while it is also going to test the country’s resilience to western sanctions. Since the voyage distance via the Northern Sea Route to the Far East could save up to 20 days off the shipping time spent compared to the Suez Canal route, vessels’ tonne-miles could be almost halved. Although the North Sea Route will provide more flexibility to the shippers and facilitate the current supply chain constraints, it is expected to provide some inconvenience as well due to its operational seasonality. Arctic sea lanes are estimated to be ice-free during the summertime by 2035, according to scientists, however, the lack of predictability will continue to overweigh the savings on shipping costs and time.
Overall, in the mid-term and within the next five years, the global oil market will be highly volatile and fragmented. Russia will be forced to reposition itself amid the realignment of the energy markets, however, the efficiency of the country’s relationship establishment with Asian customers is yet to be witnessed.
By Chara Georgousi
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Thursday, 22 December 22
RUSSIAN OIL EXPORTS CRATER BY 54% IN THE FIRST FULL WEEK OF THE EU'S EMBARGO AMID A SHORTAGE OF TANKERS WILLING TO CARRY CARGOES - BUSINESS INSIDER
Since the European Union imposed its seaborne crude sanctions, Russian oil exports have tumbled by more than half, according to data compiled by Bl ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
CHINA TIGHTENS VERIFICATION OF SHIPS’ ENERGY CONSUMPTION DATA - GARD
From 22 December 2022, ships trading to Chinese ports must record their energy consumption data in accordance with the requirements of their Ship E ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
AN OVERVIEW OF THE LNG MARKET - VESSELSVALUE
LNG values have continued to strengthen, spurred by skyrocketing earnings that have surpassed last year’s record breaking peaks. In November, ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
COKING COAL SLUMPS AS TALKS ON AUSTRALIA-CHINA TRADE RIFT LOOM - REUTERS
Chinese coking coal futures dropped more than 3 per cent on Tuesday (Dec 20), extending losses, as supply of the steelmaking input might increase i ...
Thursday, 22 December 22
COAL AND GAS PRICE CAPS MAY COMPOUND POLITICAL RISK FOR AUSTRALIAN CORPORATES - FITCH RATINGS
Australia’s introduction of temporary price caps on domestic sales of gas and coal used for electricity generation will probably have limited ...
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- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- The University of Queensland
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Planning Commission, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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