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Wednesday, 05 October 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 Amid the looming western sanctions on Russia, the country is challenged to pivot its energy markets away from Europe and toward the East. Yet, Russia has been considering exports of oil and gas from its Eastern territories to Asia-Pacific countries since the early 1970s, when the authorities recognized an opportunity to supplement the country’s West Siberian Output. Political instabilities, though, paired with uncertainty on Chinese and Japanese demand have substantially obstructed any course of action.
Pre-invasion, 60% of the country’s oil exports were directed to European countries and about 20% to China, either through pipelines or via seaborne routes, making it, thus, easier to redirect compared to gas. However, since the invasion of Ukraine and the announcement of sanctions, oil has gradually shifted towards the main Asian importers, China, and India, and to some new, albeit considerably smaller, customers, such as Sri Lanka, Egypt, and Indonesia. It is questioned, though, how effectively the country’s exports will be redirected to its emerging Asian customers.
Currently, 85% of the country’s production is clustered around West Siberia, Timan-Pechora, and the Volga Urals. As a result, exports are heavily concentrated in the Black Sea and Baltic ports, thus, trebling the voyage distance and inflating costs and freights. Due to logistic issues and insufficient infrastructure between the above regions and the country’s eastern terminals, the redirection of the country’s oil exports is challenged.
The maturity of the Western fields paired with the western sanctions on oil have urged the country to increase production from its East Siberian fields. During the past decade, East Siberian oil output gradually surged to 700,000 b/d. Meanwhile, the oil output from its mature West Siberian fields is estimated to decrease by 2m b/d over the next decade. Rosneft’s new Vostok Oil Megaproject, located at the northern junction of East and West Siberia, is set to add 1.5m b/d by 2030, with a target of 2m b/d. The project also includes the construction of Bukhta Sever Port which is set to become the country’s largest oil terminal and facilitate the development of the Northern Sea Route, while it is also going to test the country’s resilience to western sanctions. Since the voyage distance via the Northern Sea Route to the Far East could save up to 20 days off the shipping time spent compared to the Suez Canal route, vessels’ tonne-miles could be almost halved. Although the North Sea Route will provide more flexibility to the shippers and facilitate the current supply chain constraints, it is expected to provide some inconvenience as well due to its operational seasonality. Arctic sea lanes are estimated to be ice-free during the summertime by 2035, according to scientists, however, the lack of predictability will continue to overweigh the savings on shipping costs and time.
Overall, in the mid-term and within the next five years, the global oil market will be highly volatile and fragmented. Russia will be forced to reposition itself amid the realignment of the energy markets, however, the efficiency of the country’s relationship establishment with Asian customers is yet to be witnessed.
By Chara Georgousi
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 17 January 23
CHINA'S SHANXI TARGETS 2023 COAL PRODUCTION OF NEARLY 1.37B TONS - XINHUA
China’s coal-rich province of Shanxi has set a coal production target of nearly 1.37 billion metric tons for 2023, according to a government ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Rumor has it that the New Year has come, to set the pace in, for Russia to continue hostilities against Ukraine. Ten months on the go, into Russia& ...
Tuesday, 17 January 23
INDONESIA IS ACCOUNTING FOR 32.3% OF THE GLOBAL SEABORNE COAL MARKET IN 2022 - BENCHERO COSTA
After a slow start in the first quarter, global coal trade has really picked up pace last year, and is now fully back to pre-Covid levels, Benchero ...
Tuesday, 10 January 23
INDONESIAN HBA IS SEEING A SPIKE IN JANUARY 2023 INSTEAD OF A SIGNIFICANT FALL IN DECEMBER 2022
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference up 8.43% in January 2023.
HBA is seeing a dramatic spike in January 2023 i ...
Sunday, 08 January 23
INDIAN COAL POWER PLANTS SHOULD BE COMPENSATED FOR 2022 FORCED GENERATION – REGULATOR : REUTERS
Indian power plants that rely on imported coal should be fully compensated when forced to supply electricity, the country’s power regulator s ...
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- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- The University of Queensland
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
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