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Tuesday, 04 October 22
A REMARKABLE SHIFT IN FORTUNES HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE CRUDE OIL TANKER MARKETS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 A remarkable shift in fortunes has been noted in the crude oil tanker markets over the past month, yet despite these shifts being seemingly in their infancy, we may well be seeing moves that could make these extremely favorable tailwinds be close to having run their course, says Allied Shipping Research in its latest report.
George Lazaridis, Head of Research & Valuations of Allied Shipping Research, this weekend OPEC+ made some fairly controversial announcements with regards to its next monthly meeting which will take place this Wednesday. OPEC announced that it would discuss a plan to introduce substantial cuts in production of between 0.5 and 1.0 mbpd. This would make it by far the largest production cut since April 2020, when oil demand collapsed during the early part of the coronavirus pandemic. The reasoning behind this is claimed to be a preemptive effort to prop up prices before any potential global economic slowdown has its effects on crude oil consumption growth, but to also retain ample spare production capacity in case Russian output were to fall sharply during the next few months due to the increasing western sanctions coming into force.
Allied Shipping report further noted that, obviously in the case of the former, to most, it sounds more of a case of self-fulfilling prophecy, given that one of the biggest risks that global economic growth faces right now is the extensively high energy costs being faced. Beyond this, what struck most people as a major surprise is that this decision went counter to what we had been seeing during the summer months, where pressure from the US had pushed the OPEC+ group to accelerate production increases. It also gives Russia considerable breathing room, as higher oil prices would help prop up its oil revenues which have been facing considerable pressure of late as part of the large discounts it has had to offer and the considerable strengthening of the Ruble.
The weekly report further noted that, the prime mover in the tanker freight market, over the course of these past few months, has been an increase in consumption levels back to pre-pandemic levels. On top of this, we have also seen a considerable positive gain from increasing ton-miles, as supply chain disruptions from Russian sanctions caused a shift towards farther away sourcing. Given the inelastic nature of crude oil demand, the overall effect of the above would be hard to pinpoint and would likely be relatively minimal.
However, according to George Lazaridis, under the current global economic conditions and given how difficult the winter months were expected to be even before this announcement, an even further spike in crude oil prices compared to what was previously expected could further smother economic activity and in turn dampen the ability of most major economies (and in turn consumers) from keeping their consumption levels on par with the trends noted over the past few months.
Furthermore, it sets for an even more ominous horizon for crude oil markets, as even before this announcement by OPEC+, the high prices of crude had already helped fuel a major shift towards alternative energy sources. There was already talk in the market that these currently high energy prices had helped bring the energy transition agenda forward by 4 to 5 years. At even higher crude oil prices, an investment in its alternatives becomes ever increasingly more viable and further boosts its potential return on investment.
For the time being it looks as though the tanker market will just have to make the most of what it has been given and hope that things don’t turn sour too quickly. We must not forget that any decision to change production levels by OPEC+ takes a fair amount of time before it is fully implemented. At the same time given the geopolitical nature of all this, it is too early to tell if any and all of these scenarios follow through.
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Friday, 09 September 22
GREECE WILL KEEP COAL-FIRED PLANTS RUNNING FOR LONGER AMID GAS CRISIS - REUTERS
Greece will keep seven coal-fired plants running for longer than previously planned as European countries adjust to a cut in gas flows coming from ...
Friday, 09 September 22
CHINA'S DROUGHT INTENSIFIES GLOBAL COAL SHORTAGE - REUTERS
China’s drought has sent coal prices surging as traders anticipate the lack of hydroelectric generation will force it to burn more coal to me ...
Thursday, 08 September 22
MOODY.S AFFIRMS ABM INVESTAMA'S B1 RATINGS FOLLOWING PLANNED MINORITY INVESTMENT IN COAL MINER; OUTLOOK STABLE
Moody's Investors Service has affirmed ABM Investama Tbk (P.T.)'s B1 corporate family rating (CFR), along with the B1 rating on its senior ...
Thursday, 08 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
While the energy markets are historically stretched, Russian flows of crude oil are closely monitored as the oil trade is ultimately realigned. Mor ...
Friday, 02 September 22
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE SLIPS SLIGHTLY IN SEPTEMBER 2022
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for September delivery drops 0.74 per cent month on month.
The Indonesian Coal Price R ...
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- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- The University of Queensland
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
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