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Tuesday, 04 October 22
A REMARKABLE SHIFT IN FORTUNES HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE CRUDE OIL TANKER MARKETS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 A remarkable shift in fortunes has been noted in the crude oil tanker markets over the past month, yet despite these shifts being seemingly in their infancy, we may well be seeing moves that could make these extremely favorable tailwinds be close to having run their course, says Allied Shipping Research in its latest report.
George Lazaridis, Head of Research & Valuations of Allied Shipping Research, this weekend OPEC+ made some fairly controversial announcements with regards to its next monthly meeting which will take place this Wednesday. OPEC announced that it would discuss a plan to introduce substantial cuts in production of between 0.5 and 1.0 mbpd. This would make it by far the largest production cut since April 2020, when oil demand collapsed during the early part of the coronavirus pandemic. The reasoning behind this is claimed to be a preemptive effort to prop up prices before any potential global economic slowdown has its effects on crude oil consumption growth, but to also retain ample spare production capacity in case Russian output were to fall sharply during the next few months due to the increasing western sanctions coming into force.
Allied Shipping report further noted that, obviously in the case of the former, to most, it sounds more of a case of self-fulfilling prophecy, given that one of the biggest risks that global economic growth faces right now is the extensively high energy costs being faced. Beyond this, what struck most people as a major surprise is that this decision went counter to what we had been seeing during the summer months, where pressure from the US had pushed the OPEC+ group to accelerate production increases. It also gives Russia considerable breathing room, as higher oil prices would help prop up its oil revenues which have been facing considerable pressure of late as part of the large discounts it has had to offer and the considerable strengthening of the Ruble.
The weekly report further noted that, the prime mover in the tanker freight market, over the course of these past few months, has been an increase in consumption levels back to pre-pandemic levels. On top of this, we have also seen a considerable positive gain from increasing ton-miles, as supply chain disruptions from Russian sanctions caused a shift towards farther away sourcing. Given the inelastic nature of crude oil demand, the overall effect of the above would be hard to pinpoint and would likely be relatively minimal.
However, according to George Lazaridis, under the current global economic conditions and given how difficult the winter months were expected to be even before this announcement, an even further spike in crude oil prices compared to what was previously expected could further smother economic activity and in turn dampen the ability of most major economies (and in turn consumers) from keeping their consumption levels on par with the trends noted over the past few months.
Furthermore, it sets for an even more ominous horizon for crude oil markets, as even before this announcement by OPEC+, the high prices of crude had already helped fuel a major shift towards alternative energy sources. There was already talk in the market that these currently high energy prices had helped bring the energy transition agenda forward by 4 to 5 years. At even higher crude oil prices, an investment in its alternatives becomes ever increasingly more viable and further boosts its potential return on investment.
For the time being it looks as though the tanker market will just have to make the most of what it has been given and hope that things don’t turn sour too quickly. We must not forget that any decision to change production levels by OPEC+ takes a fair amount of time before it is fully implemented. At the same time given the geopolitical nature of all this, it is too early to tell if any and all of these scenarios follow through.
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Monday, 19 September 22
BUMA AUSTRALIA AWARDED A$400 MILLION CONTRACT EXTENSION BY BMA FOR GOONYELLA PROJECT
Press Release – PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. (the "Company") announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama ("BUMA ...
Saturday, 17 September 22
CHINA WARNS COAL COMPANIES AGAINST DUAL CONTRACTS, KEEP PRICES STABLE - REUTERS
China’s state economic planner warned coal companies operating at ports in the Bohai Bay region to comply with their long-term contracts to k ...
Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has i ...
Saturday, 17 September 22
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS & MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
Fitch Ratings has revised its metals and mining price assumptions reflecting evolving economic growth expectations and demand and supply dynamics.
...
Friday, 16 September 22
WHEN IS A VESSEL'S INCOME EARNING CAPACITY AT RISK? 'CONTROLLED INCOME CAN BE A KEY OF SUCCESS' - MARASCO MARINE
Managing marine risks is not an easy task, which requires special knowledge and expertise on the subject per se. Customarily, big ship management c ...
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- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Economic Council, Georgia
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- White Energy Company Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- PTC India Limited - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
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