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Tuesday, 04 October 22
A REMARKABLE SHIFT IN FORTUNES HAS BEEN NOTED IN THE CRUDE OIL TANKER MARKETS - ALLIED SHIPPING
 A remarkable shift in fortunes has been noted in the crude oil tanker markets over the past month, yet despite these shifts being seemingly in their infancy, we may well be seeing moves that could make these extremely favorable tailwinds be close to having run their course, says Allied Shipping Research in its latest report.
George Lazaridis, Head of Research & Valuations of Allied Shipping Research, this weekend OPEC+ made some fairly controversial announcements with regards to its next monthly meeting which will take place this Wednesday. OPEC announced that it would discuss a plan to introduce substantial cuts in production of between 0.5 and 1.0 mbpd. This would make it by far the largest production cut since April 2020, when oil demand collapsed during the early part of the coronavirus pandemic. The reasoning behind this is claimed to be a preemptive effort to prop up prices before any potential global economic slowdown has its effects on crude oil consumption growth, but to also retain ample spare production capacity in case Russian output were to fall sharply during the next few months due to the increasing western sanctions coming into force.
Allied Shipping report further noted that, obviously in the case of the former, to most, it sounds more of a case of self-fulfilling prophecy, given that one of the biggest risks that global economic growth faces right now is the extensively high energy costs being faced. Beyond this, what struck most people as a major surprise is that this decision went counter to what we had been seeing during the summer months, where pressure from the US had pushed the OPEC+ group to accelerate production increases. It also gives Russia considerable breathing room, as higher oil prices would help prop up its oil revenues which have been facing considerable pressure of late as part of the large discounts it has had to offer and the considerable strengthening of the Ruble.
The weekly report further noted that, the prime mover in the tanker freight market, over the course of these past few months, has been an increase in consumption levels back to pre-pandemic levels. On top of this, we have also seen a considerable positive gain from increasing ton-miles, as supply chain disruptions from Russian sanctions caused a shift towards farther away sourcing. Given the inelastic nature of crude oil demand, the overall effect of the above would be hard to pinpoint and would likely be relatively minimal.
However, according to George Lazaridis, under the current global economic conditions and given how difficult the winter months were expected to be even before this announcement, an even further spike in crude oil prices compared to what was previously expected could further smother economic activity and in turn dampen the ability of most major economies (and in turn consumers) from keeping their consumption levels on par with the trends noted over the past few months.
Furthermore, it sets for an even more ominous horizon for crude oil markets, as even before this announcement by OPEC+, the high prices of crude had already helped fuel a major shift towards alternative energy sources. There was already talk in the market that these currently high energy prices had helped bring the energy transition agenda forward by 4 to 5 years. At even higher crude oil prices, an investment in its alternatives becomes ever increasingly more viable and further boosts its potential return on investment.
For the time being it looks as though the tanker market will just have to make the most of what it has been given and hope that things don’t turn sour too quickly. We must not forget that any decision to change production levels by OPEC+ takes a fair amount of time before it is fully implemented. At the same time given the geopolitical nature of all this, it is too early to tell if any and all of these scenarios follow through.
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Friday, 02 September 22
ABM INVESTAMA BUYS 30% GEMS SHARES FOR US$ 420 MILLION
PT ABM Investama Tbk through its indirect subsidiary, bought a 30% stake in the PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk for US$ 420 million or around Rp 6.2 tri ...
Wednesday, 31 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Scorching temperatures and extremely dry conditions during the Northern hemisphere summer have been drying crops. Yield prospects have subsided in ...
Tuesday, 23 August 22
HIGH COAL PRICES COULD BOOST INDONESIA'S ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
Global coal prices have reached an all-time high as countries stop purchasing Russian coal amidst the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Indonesian coal comp ...
Tuesday, 23 August 22
A COMBINED US$6.8-BILLION CASH BALANCE OF INDONESIAN COAL COMPANIES COULD PROVIDE FOR TIMELY INVESTMENTS IN GREEN TRANSITION - IEEFA
A combined US$6.8-billion cash balance of Indonesian coal companies could provide for timely investments in green transition
The opp ...
Tuesday, 23 August 22
SHIPPING INDUSTRY TO REMOVE THE INDIAN OCEAN HIGH RISK AREA - BIMCO
After more than a decade of effective threat-reducing counter-piracy operations the shipping industry has removed the ‘Indian Ocean High Risk ...
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- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- The University of Queensland
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Australian Coal Association
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- PTC India Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Planning Commission, India
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
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