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Thursday, 08 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 While the energy markets are historically stretched, Russian flows of crude oil are closely monitored as the oil trade is ultimately realigned. More specifically, Russian oil exports fell by 115k bpd in July to 7.4m bpd, from about 8m bpd at the start of the year, according to IEA’s August report. However, for the period Jan-Jul22 oil exports averaged 7.75m bpd, edging upwards compared to 7.5m bpd achieved in 2021 as a whole.
Crude and product flows to the US, UK, EU, Japan and Korea have slumped by 2.2 m bpd since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, two-thirds of them have been redirected mainly to China and India at discounted rates. Export revenues fell to $19 bn in July, -9.5% m-o-m, mainly on the back of reduced volumes and lower oil prices. Total flows of Russia’s crude to Asia fell by 500,000 bpd during the past three months, with flows slumping at the lowest since March. During the last week of August, according to Bloomberg, total flows slumped at 3.04m bpd, -16% w-o-w. Crude shipments to China are now about 50% of the total flows, -10% since April. Key driving factor is mainly China’s constrained oil demand due to consecutive lockdowns which prompted refineries to minimize their crude input, as well as simultaneous maintenance of multiple refineries. Another factor could be the narrowing of the price differential between Urals crude and Brent crude, which from about $30/bbl in April-May narrowed to approx. $19/bbl in July-August, according to Russia’s Ministry of Finance.
European imports of Russian crude surged during August’s last week to the highest level since April, mainly driven by the upcoming full effect of sanctions in December. According to Bloomberg, total flows of Urals crude rose to 3.41m bpd from a previous 3.24m bpd, mainly on the back of EU imports (Mediterranean, Northern Europe, and Black Sea region). Imports of Mediterranean countries soared to the highest level to reach 140k bpd, imports of Northern countries accounted for 398k bpd, while import volumes from the Black Sea region (Romania and Bulgaria) marked a 7-week high.
ESPO, on the other hand, has marked a 4-month high during August. ESPO shipments from the country’s Pacific Coast terminals rose to the highest level since April. More specifically, according to Bloomberg, 37 tankers departed from Kozmino in August carrying 875k bpd of ESPO. Meanwhile, combined exports from Kozmino, De Kastri, and Prigorodnoye surged to 942k bpd, +6.5% m-o-m. India edged as a key ESPO importer, displacing barrels from Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi and thus, realigning global crude flows. During August standalone, 6 vessels carrying ESPO headed to the country’s refineries, carrying a total volume of 142k bpd, +20.3% m-o-m.
With shifting trading patterns in the crude oil market, Russia must primarily rely on China and India to source its crude. China’s demand for Russian barrels, albeit lower in July according to GAC data, could recover as we head towards the winter season which will increase demand for oil amid elevated gas prices. Oil demand could be supported in September ahead of the peak of fishing and harvest activities, as well as the Autumn festival, all of which combined add tailwinds to gasoil consumption. In addition, some demand growth is expected during October, ahead of the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist party which will be held in Beijing. The recent outbreak of Covid cases in many provinces, though, has forced cities to adopt virus containment measures and added headwinds to the winter demand growth forecast. Nevertheless, market sentiment remains bullish, overall, regarding the 2H2022 Chinese oil demand.
Conclusively, some smaller players have emerged which could potentially absorb more Russian crude in the mid-term, such as Sri Lanka and Egypt which snapped some Russian barrels during July and August, according to Bloomberg. Given that the trade between Russia and alternative importing countries is further developed after the sanctions’ full effect, it could add some support to the tonne miles.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 12 September 22
COAL PRICE HIKE REMAINS DIFFICULT FOR CIL: CHAIRMAN TELLS ANALYSTS - PTI
Coal India on Thursday informed investors that increasing coal prices remains difficult in the current context when the economy is grappling with h ...
Friday, 09 September 22
GREECE WILL KEEP COAL-FIRED PLANTS RUNNING FOR LONGER AMID GAS CRISIS - REUTERS
Greece will keep seven coal-fired plants running for longer than previously planned as European countries adjust to a cut in gas flows coming from ...
Friday, 09 September 22
CHINA'S DROUGHT INTENSIFIES GLOBAL COAL SHORTAGE - REUTERS
China’s drought has sent coal prices surging as traders anticipate the lack of hydroelectric generation will force it to burn more coal to me ...
Thursday, 08 September 22
MOODY.S AFFIRMS ABM INVESTAMA'S B1 RATINGS FOLLOWING PLANNED MINORITY INVESTMENT IN COAL MINER; OUTLOOK STABLE
Moody's Investors Service has affirmed ABM Investama Tbk (P.T.)'s B1 corporate family rating (CFR), along with the B1 rating on its senior ...
Friday, 02 September 22
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE SLIPS SLIGHTLY IN SEPTEMBER 2022
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for September delivery drops 0.74 per cent month on month.
The Indonesian Coal Price R ...
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- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Australian Coal Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- The University of Queensland
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- PTC India Limited - India
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Planning Commission, India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
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