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Thursday, 08 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 While the energy markets are historically stretched, Russian flows of crude oil are closely monitored as the oil trade is ultimately realigned. More specifically, Russian oil exports fell by 115k bpd in July to 7.4m bpd, from about 8m bpd at the start of the year, according to IEA’s August report. However, for the period Jan-Jul22 oil exports averaged 7.75m bpd, edging upwards compared to 7.5m bpd achieved in 2021 as a whole.
Crude and product flows to the US, UK, EU, Japan and Korea have slumped by 2.2 m bpd since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, two-thirds of them have been redirected mainly to China and India at discounted rates. Export revenues fell to $19 bn in July, -9.5% m-o-m, mainly on the back of reduced volumes and lower oil prices. Total flows of Russia’s crude to Asia fell by 500,000 bpd during the past three months, with flows slumping at the lowest since March. During the last week of August, according to Bloomberg, total flows slumped at 3.04m bpd, -16% w-o-w. Crude shipments to China are now about 50% of the total flows, -10% since April. Key driving factor is mainly China’s constrained oil demand due to consecutive lockdowns which prompted refineries to minimize their crude input, as well as simultaneous maintenance of multiple refineries. Another factor could be the narrowing of the price differential between Urals crude and Brent crude, which from about $30/bbl in April-May narrowed to approx. $19/bbl in July-August, according to Russia’s Ministry of Finance.
European imports of Russian crude surged during August’s last week to the highest level since April, mainly driven by the upcoming full effect of sanctions in December. According to Bloomberg, total flows of Urals crude rose to 3.41m bpd from a previous 3.24m bpd, mainly on the back of EU imports (Mediterranean, Northern Europe, and Black Sea region). Imports of Mediterranean countries soared to the highest level to reach 140k bpd, imports of Northern countries accounted for 398k bpd, while import volumes from the Black Sea region (Romania and Bulgaria) marked a 7-week high.
ESPO, on the other hand, has marked a 4-month high during August. ESPO shipments from the country’s Pacific Coast terminals rose to the highest level since April. More specifically, according to Bloomberg, 37 tankers departed from Kozmino in August carrying 875k bpd of ESPO. Meanwhile, combined exports from Kozmino, De Kastri, and Prigorodnoye surged to 942k bpd, +6.5% m-o-m. India edged as a key ESPO importer, displacing barrels from Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi and thus, realigning global crude flows. During August standalone, 6 vessels carrying ESPO headed to the country’s refineries, carrying a total volume of 142k bpd, +20.3% m-o-m.
With shifting trading patterns in the crude oil market, Russia must primarily rely on China and India to source its crude. China’s demand for Russian barrels, albeit lower in July according to GAC data, could recover as we head towards the winter season which will increase demand for oil amid elevated gas prices. Oil demand could be supported in September ahead of the peak of fishing and harvest activities, as well as the Autumn festival, all of which combined add tailwinds to gasoil consumption. In addition, some demand growth is expected during October, ahead of the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist party which will be held in Beijing. The recent outbreak of Covid cases in many provinces, though, has forced cities to adopt virus containment measures and added headwinds to the winter demand growth forecast. Nevertheless, market sentiment remains bullish, overall, regarding the 2H2022 Chinese oil demand.
Conclusively, some smaller players have emerged which could potentially absorb more Russian crude in the mid-term, such as Sri Lanka and Egypt which snapped some Russian barrels during July and August, according to Bloomberg. Given that the trade between Russia and alternative importing countries is further developed after the sanctions’ full effect, it could add some support to the tonne miles.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Monday, 12 September 22
COAL PRICE HIKE REMAINS DIFFICULT FOR CIL: CHAIRMAN TELLS ANALYSTS - PTI
Coal India on Thursday informed investors that increasing coal prices remains difficult in the current context when the economy is grappling with h ...
Friday, 09 September 22
GREECE WILL KEEP COAL-FIRED PLANTS RUNNING FOR LONGER AMID GAS CRISIS - REUTERS
Greece will keep seven coal-fired plants running for longer than previously planned as European countries adjust to a cut in gas flows coming from ...
Friday, 09 September 22
CHINA'S DROUGHT INTENSIFIES GLOBAL COAL SHORTAGE - REUTERS
China’s drought has sent coal prices surging as traders anticipate the lack of hydroelectric generation will force it to burn more coal to me ...
Thursday, 08 September 22
MOODY.S AFFIRMS ABM INVESTAMA'S B1 RATINGS FOLLOWING PLANNED MINORITY INVESTMENT IN COAL MINER; OUTLOOK STABLE
Moody's Investors Service has affirmed ABM Investama Tbk (P.T.)'s B1 corporate family rating (CFR), along with the B1 rating on its senior ...
Friday, 02 September 22
INDONESIA COAL PRICE REFERENCE SLIPS SLIGHTLY IN SEPTEMBER 2022
COALspot.com: Indonesian Coal Price Reference for September delivery drops 0.74 per cent month on month.
The Indonesian Coal Price R ...
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- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- The University of Queensland
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Planning Commission, India
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Economic Council, Georgia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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