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Thursday, 08 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 While the energy markets are historically stretched, Russian flows of crude oil are closely monitored as the oil trade is ultimately realigned. More specifically, Russian oil exports fell by 115k bpd in July to 7.4m bpd, from about 8m bpd at the start of the year, according to IEA’s August report. However, for the period Jan-Jul22 oil exports averaged 7.75m bpd, edging upwards compared to 7.5m bpd achieved in 2021 as a whole.
Crude and product flows to the US, UK, EU, Japan and Korea have slumped by 2.2 m bpd since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, two-thirds of them have been redirected mainly to China and India at discounted rates. Export revenues fell to $19 bn in July, -9.5% m-o-m, mainly on the back of reduced volumes and lower oil prices. Total flows of Russia’s crude to Asia fell by 500,000 bpd during the past three months, with flows slumping at the lowest since March. During the last week of August, according to Bloomberg, total flows slumped at 3.04m bpd, -16% w-o-w. Crude shipments to China are now about 50% of the total flows, -10% since April. Key driving factor is mainly China’s constrained oil demand due to consecutive lockdowns which prompted refineries to minimize their crude input, as well as simultaneous maintenance of multiple refineries. Another factor could be the narrowing of the price differential between Urals crude and Brent crude, which from about $30/bbl in April-May narrowed to approx. $19/bbl in July-August, according to Russia’s Ministry of Finance.
European imports of Russian crude surged during August’s last week to the highest level since April, mainly driven by the upcoming full effect of sanctions in December. According to Bloomberg, total flows of Urals crude rose to 3.41m bpd from a previous 3.24m bpd, mainly on the back of EU imports (Mediterranean, Northern Europe, and Black Sea region). Imports of Mediterranean countries soared to the highest level to reach 140k bpd, imports of Northern countries accounted for 398k bpd, while import volumes from the Black Sea region (Romania and Bulgaria) marked a 7-week high.
ESPO, on the other hand, has marked a 4-month high during August. ESPO shipments from the country’s Pacific Coast terminals rose to the highest level since April. More specifically, according to Bloomberg, 37 tankers departed from Kozmino in August carrying 875k bpd of ESPO. Meanwhile, combined exports from Kozmino, De Kastri, and Prigorodnoye surged to 942k bpd, +6.5% m-o-m. India edged as a key ESPO importer, displacing barrels from Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi and thus, realigning global crude flows. During August standalone, 6 vessels carrying ESPO headed to the country’s refineries, carrying a total volume of 142k bpd, +20.3% m-o-m.
With shifting trading patterns in the crude oil market, Russia must primarily rely on China and India to source its crude. China’s demand for Russian barrels, albeit lower in July according to GAC data, could recover as we head towards the winter season which will increase demand for oil amid elevated gas prices. Oil demand could be supported in September ahead of the peak of fishing and harvest activities, as well as the Autumn festival, all of which combined add tailwinds to gasoil consumption. In addition, some demand growth is expected during October, ahead of the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist party which will be held in Beijing. The recent outbreak of Covid cases in many provinces, though, has forced cities to adopt virus containment measures and added headwinds to the winter demand growth forecast. Nevertheless, market sentiment remains bullish, overall, regarding the 2H2022 Chinese oil demand.
Conclusively, some smaller players have emerged which could potentially absorb more Russian crude in the mid-term, such as Sri Lanka and Egypt which snapped some Russian barrels during July and August, according to Bloomberg. Given that the trade between Russia and alternative importing countries is further developed after the sanctions’ full effect, it could add some support to the tonne miles.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Tuesday, 20 September 22
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 8.1 PCT IN AUGUST - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted stable expansion in August, official data showed.
The country produced 370 million tonnes of ra ...
Monday, 19 September 22
BUMA AUSTRALIA AWARDED A$400 MILLION CONTRACT EXTENSION BY BMA FOR GOONYELLA PROJECT
Press Release – PT Delta Dunia Makmur Tbk. (the "Company") announced that its subsidiary, PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri Utama ("BUMA ...
Saturday, 17 September 22
CHINA WARNS COAL COMPANIES AGAINST DUAL CONTRACTS, KEEP PRICES STABLE - REUTERS
China’s state economic planner warned coal companies operating at ports in the Bohai Bay region to comply with their long-term contracts to k ...
Saturday, 17 September 22
IS A GLOBAL RECESSION IMMINENT? - WORLD BANK
Since the beginning of the year, a rapid deterioration of growth prospects coupled with rising inflation and tightening financing conditions, has i ...
Saturday, 17 September 22
FITCH RATINGS REVISES GLOBAL METALS & MINING PRICE ASSUMPTIONS
Fitch Ratings has revised its metals and mining price assumptions reflecting evolving economic growth expectations and demand and supply dynamics.
...
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- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Planning Commission, India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- White Energy Company Limited
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- PTC India Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Australian Coal Association
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
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