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Thursday, 08 September 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
 While the energy markets are historically stretched, Russian flows of crude oil are closely monitored as the oil trade is ultimately realigned. More specifically, Russian oil exports fell by 115k bpd in July to 7.4m bpd, from about 8m bpd at the start of the year, according to IEA’s August report. However, for the period Jan-Jul22 oil exports averaged 7.75m bpd, edging upwards compared to 7.5m bpd achieved in 2021 as a whole.
Crude and product flows to the US, UK, EU, Japan and Korea have slumped by 2.2 m bpd since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. However, two-thirds of them have been redirected mainly to China and India at discounted rates. Export revenues fell to $19 bn in July, -9.5% m-o-m, mainly on the back of reduced volumes and lower oil prices. Total flows of Russia’s crude to Asia fell by 500,000 bpd during the past three months, with flows slumping at the lowest since March. During the last week of August, according to Bloomberg, total flows slumped at 3.04m bpd, -16% w-o-w. Crude shipments to China are now about 50% of the total flows, -10% since April. Key driving factor is mainly China’s constrained oil demand due to consecutive lockdowns which prompted refineries to minimize their crude input, as well as simultaneous maintenance of multiple refineries. Another factor could be the narrowing of the price differential between Urals crude and Brent crude, which from about $30/bbl in April-May narrowed to approx. $19/bbl in July-August, according to Russia’s Ministry of Finance.
European imports of Russian crude surged during August’s last week to the highest level since April, mainly driven by the upcoming full effect of sanctions in December. According to Bloomberg, total flows of Urals crude rose to 3.41m bpd from a previous 3.24m bpd, mainly on the back of EU imports (Mediterranean, Northern Europe, and Black Sea region). Imports of Mediterranean countries soared to the highest level to reach 140k bpd, imports of Northern countries accounted for 398k bpd, while import volumes from the Black Sea region (Romania and Bulgaria) marked a 7-week high.
ESPO, on the other hand, has marked a 4-month high during August. ESPO shipments from the country’s Pacific Coast terminals rose to the highest level since April. More specifically, according to Bloomberg, 37 tankers departed from Kozmino in August carrying 875k bpd of ESPO. Meanwhile, combined exports from Kozmino, De Kastri, and Prigorodnoye surged to 942k bpd, +6.5% m-o-m. India edged as a key ESPO importer, displacing barrels from Saudi Arabia and Abu Dhabi and thus, realigning global crude flows. During August standalone, 6 vessels carrying ESPO headed to the country’s refineries, carrying a total volume of 142k bpd, +20.3% m-o-m.
With shifting trading patterns in the crude oil market, Russia must primarily rely on China and India to source its crude. China’s demand for Russian barrels, albeit lower in July according to GAC data, could recover as we head towards the winter season which will increase demand for oil amid elevated gas prices. Oil demand could be supported in September ahead of the peak of fishing and harvest activities, as well as the Autumn festival, all of which combined add tailwinds to gasoil consumption. In addition, some demand growth is expected during October, ahead of the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist party which will be held in Beijing. The recent outbreak of Covid cases in many provinces, though, has forced cities to adopt virus containment measures and added headwinds to the winter demand growth forecast. Nevertheless, market sentiment remains bullish, overall, regarding the 2H2022 Chinese oil demand.
Conclusively, some smaller players have emerged which could potentially absorb more Russian crude in the mid-term, such as Sri Lanka and Egypt which snapped some Russian barrels during July and August, according to Bloomberg. Given that the trade between Russia and alternative importing countries is further developed after the sanctions’ full effect, it could add some support to the tonne miles.
By Chara Georgousi
Research Analyst
Compiled by:
Intermodal Research & Valuations
Analysts:
Yiannis Parganas
Tamara Apostolou
Disclaimer and legal disclosure: For any further queries please do not hesitate to contact our Research & Valuations Department. The information contained in this report has been obtained from various sources, as reported in the market. Intermodal Shipbrokers Co. believes such information to be factual and reliable without making guarantees regarding its accuracy or completeness. Whilst every care has been taken in the production of the above review, no liability can be accepted for any loss or damage incurred in any way whatsoever by any person who may seek to rely on the information and views contained in this material. This report is being produced for the internal use of the intended recipients only and no reproducing is allowed, without the prior written authorization of Intermodal Shipbrokers Co.
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Friday, 02 September 22
ABM INVESTAMA BUYS 30% GEMS SHARES FOR US$ 420 MILLION
PT ABM Investama Tbk through its indirect subsidiary, bought a 30% stake in the PT Golden Energy Mines Tbk for US$ 420 million or around Rp 6.2 tri ...
Wednesday, 31 August 22
MARKET INSIGHT - INTERMODAL
Scorching temperatures and extremely dry conditions during the Northern hemisphere summer have been drying crops. Yield prospects have subsided in ...
Tuesday, 23 August 22
HIGH COAL PRICES COULD BOOST INDONESIA'S ENERGY TRANSITION - IEEFA
Global coal prices have reached an all-time high as countries stop purchasing Russian coal amidst the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Indonesian coal comp ...
Tuesday, 23 August 22
A COMBINED US$6.8-BILLION CASH BALANCE OF INDONESIAN COAL COMPANIES COULD PROVIDE FOR TIMELY INVESTMENTS IN GREEN TRANSITION - IEEFA
A combined US$6.8-billion cash balance of Indonesian coal companies could provide for timely investments in green transition
The opp ...
Tuesday, 23 August 22
SHIPPING INDUSTRY TO REMOVE THE INDIAN OCEAN HIGH RISK AREA - BIMCO
After more than a decade of effective threat-reducing counter-piracy operations the shipping industry has removed the ‘Indian Ocean High Risk ...
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- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- PTC India Limited - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Planning Commission, India
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- White Energy Company Limited
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- The University of Queensland
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Australian Coal Association
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
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