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Sunday, 03 July 22
SOVEREIGN SECTOR OUTLOOK REVISED TO NEUTRAL ON UKRAINE WAR IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
 The deterioration in global sovereign credit conditions this year relative to our expectations at end-2021 has caused Fitch Ratings to change its global sovereign sector outlook to neutral from improving. The impact of the Ukraine war and consequent sanctions on geopolitical risk, trade and capital flows, and economic growth and inflation will not be resolved in 2H22.
Policy responses are driving the fiscal effects of inflation, making post-Covid-19 pandemic consolidation that was evident last year less certain. Meanwhile the Federal Reserve and most other major central banks will tighten policy much more aggressively than anticipated, adding to funding stresses for emerging markets (EMs) with limited local-currency financing options. Commodity exporters are benefiting from high prices, but EMs that are net commodity importers face high gross external funding needs.
Sector outlooks are a general forward-looking assessment of underlying conditions relative to the prior calendar year. Emerging Europe and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are the only regions with deteriorating sovereign sector outlooks, indicating that we now see underlying conditions as being worse than in 2021. Sovereigns in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) are exposed to Russia’s economic contraction, and many sovereigns in central and eastern Europe have insufficient alternative energy sources if Russia ceases gas exports.
Inflation and tighter global financial conditions are further weakening SSA’s macroeconomic prospects, and in many cases, the cost and availability of external financing. The region’s main oil exporters will gain from higher prices, although domestic fuel subsidies limit the fiscal benefit for Nigeria.
In western Europe, weaker GDP growth will slow, but not reverse, fiscal consolidation, while we expect APAC economies generally to continue recovering, albeit more slowly. Both regions’ sector outlooks are now neutral, versus improving at the start of the year. But while much of APAC gains from economic reopening, near-term growth in Greater China will be partly influenced by ‘zero Covid’ policies, and we expect China’s economy to grow just 3.7% this year following lockdowns in 1H22. Our Greater China sector outlook remains neutral.
Our neutral sector outlooks for North America and Latin America are also unchanged. US recession risks have risen, but its financing needs are declining and the strong post-pandemic rebound boosted revenues. Latin America’s economic recovery has remained fairly resilient as the pandemic has receded, allowing economic reopening to continue, while higher commodity prices improve terms-of-trade for some. But measures to cushion households from higher fuel and food prices are reducing the net fiscal benefits for commodity exporters and slowing consolidation elsewhere. Difficult political backdrops continue to complicate efforts to tackle underlying growth and fiscal challenges.
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is the only region to maintain its improving sector outlook assigned at end-2021. Oil-exporting sovereigns will register significantly stronger public finances and growth in 2022, although the economic picture will be much more challenging outside the Gulf Cooperation Council. The MENA sector outlook is supported to varying degrees by reform momentum as well as by the more constructive regional political dynamics that emerged last year.
Sector outlooks are distinct from Rating Outlooks. Notwithstanding the effects of the war in Ukraine and higher inflation, the numbers of Positive and Negative Rating Outlooks are almost equal in Fitch’s global sovereign portfolio after the balance was deeply negative during the pandemic. This partly reflects the stabilisation of Outlooks on some sovereigns, including Japan, India and Panama, since end-2021. Downgrades to Ukraine, Belarus and Tunisia have taken their ratings to ‘CCC’, where Fitch does not assign Outlooks to sovereign ratings.
More broadly, with a record-high share of sovereigns rated in the ‘B’ category or lower, additional sovereign defaults are likely as EM commodity importers face tighter global funding conditions.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Sunday, 16 April 23
CHINA JUGGLES FOUR MAJOR ECONOMIC CHANGES IN 2023 - WOOD MACKENZIE
Change is afoot in China. Economic growth is slowing, while rising political tensions between China and the US, coupled with global supply chain re ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
CHINA'S MARCH COAL IMPORTS JUMP TO 3-YEAR HIGH - REUTERS
China’s coal imports surged in March to their highest in any month over the past three years as utilities increased purchases on expectations ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
OPEC KEEPS WORLD OIL DEMAND GROWTH OUTLOOK UNCHANGED
The OPEC Reference Basket (ORB) declined in March by $3.43, or 4.2%, m-o-m to average $78.45/b. The ICE Brent first-month contract fell by $4.33, o ...
Sunday, 16 April 23
CHEAPER SPOT LNG PRICES TEMPT SOME ASIAN BUYERS AMID SUPPLY GAINS - REUTERS
Cheaper spot prices for liquefied natural gas (LNG) are luring price-sensitive buyers back in Asia, with China and India recording rising imports i ...
Tuesday, 11 April 23
COAL USE CLIMBS WORLDWIDE DESPITE PROMISES TO SLASH IT - AAP
The burning of coal for electricity, cement, steel and other uses went up in 2022 despite global promises to phase down the fuel that is the bigges ...
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- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- White Energy Company Limited
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Planning Commission, India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Australian Coal Association
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- MS Steel International - UAE
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- PTC India Limited - India
- Parliament of New Zealand
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The University of Queensland
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
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