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Sunday, 03 July 22
SOVEREIGN SECTOR OUTLOOK REVISED TO NEUTRAL ON UKRAINE WAR IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
 The deterioration in global sovereign credit conditions this year relative to our expectations at end-2021 has caused Fitch Ratings to change its global sovereign sector outlook to neutral from improving. The impact of the Ukraine war and consequent sanctions on geopolitical risk, trade and capital flows, and economic growth and inflation will not be resolved in 2H22.
Policy responses are driving the fiscal effects of inflation, making post-Covid-19 pandemic consolidation that was evident last year less certain. Meanwhile the Federal Reserve and most other major central banks will tighten policy much more aggressively than anticipated, adding to funding stresses for emerging markets (EMs) with limited local-currency financing options. Commodity exporters are benefiting from high prices, but EMs that are net commodity importers face high gross external funding needs.
Sector outlooks are a general forward-looking assessment of underlying conditions relative to the prior calendar year. Emerging Europe and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are the only regions with deteriorating sovereign sector outlooks, indicating that we now see underlying conditions as being worse than in 2021. Sovereigns in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) are exposed to Russia’s economic contraction, and many sovereigns in central and eastern Europe have insufficient alternative energy sources if Russia ceases gas exports.
Inflation and tighter global financial conditions are further weakening SSA’s macroeconomic prospects, and in many cases, the cost and availability of external financing. The region’s main oil exporters will gain from higher prices, although domestic fuel subsidies limit the fiscal benefit for Nigeria.
In western Europe, weaker GDP growth will slow, but not reverse, fiscal consolidation, while we expect APAC economies generally to continue recovering, albeit more slowly. Both regions’ sector outlooks are now neutral, versus improving at the start of the year. But while much of APAC gains from economic reopening, near-term growth in Greater China will be partly influenced by ‘zero Covid’ policies, and we expect China’s economy to grow just 3.7% this year following lockdowns in 1H22. Our Greater China sector outlook remains neutral.
Our neutral sector outlooks for North America and Latin America are also unchanged. US recession risks have risen, but its financing needs are declining and the strong post-pandemic rebound boosted revenues. Latin America’s economic recovery has remained fairly resilient as the pandemic has receded, allowing economic reopening to continue, while higher commodity prices improve terms-of-trade for some. But measures to cushion households from higher fuel and food prices are reducing the net fiscal benefits for commodity exporters and slowing consolidation elsewhere. Difficult political backdrops continue to complicate efforts to tackle underlying growth and fiscal challenges.
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is the only region to maintain its improving sector outlook assigned at end-2021. Oil-exporting sovereigns will register significantly stronger public finances and growth in 2022, although the economic picture will be much more challenging outside the Gulf Cooperation Council. The MENA sector outlook is supported to varying degrees by reform momentum as well as by the more constructive regional political dynamics that emerged last year.
Sector outlooks are distinct from Rating Outlooks. Notwithstanding the effects of the war in Ukraine and higher inflation, the numbers of Positive and Negative Rating Outlooks are almost equal in Fitch’s global sovereign portfolio after the balance was deeply negative during the pandemic. This partly reflects the stabilisation of Outlooks on some sovereigns, including Japan, India and Panama, since end-2021. Downgrades to Ukraine, Belarus and Tunisia have taken their ratings to ‘CCC’, where Fitch does not assign Outlooks to sovereign ratings.
More broadly, with a record-high share of sovereigns rated in the ‘B’ category or lower, additional sovereign defaults are likely as EM commodity importers face tighter global funding conditions.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Wednesday, 21 June 23
CHINA'S MAY COAL IMPORTS FROM AUSTRALIA RECOVER TO PRE-BAN LEVELS - REUTERS
Australian coal sales to China increased in May, as trade resumed between them even as overall coal demand weakened against an uncertain macroecono ...
Monday, 19 June 23
DROUGHT-DEPLETED HYDROPOWER DRIVES CHINA TO TURN TO COAL - REUTERS
China has leant hard on coal-fired power plants as well as wind and solar generators to make up for a shortfall in hydroelectric generation as a re ...
Monday, 19 June 23
CHINA COAL OUTPUT UP 4.2 PCT IN MAY - XINHUA
China’s raw coal output posted steady growth in May, official data showed.
The country produced 390 million tonnes of raw coal ...
Wednesday, 24 May 23
AMMONIA-FUELLED BULK CARRIERS WITHIN FIVE YEARS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
Within five years, ships powered by clean ammonia could be a feature on the iron ore trade routes between West Australia and East Asia.
A study ...
Tuesday, 23 May 23
CHINA'S APRIL COAL OUTPUT LEAPS 11% ON YEAR, BUT DEMAND DOWNTURN LOOMS - REUTERS
China’s daily coal output in April jumped 11% from the same month a year earlier, boosted by Beijing’s order to increase supply to ensu ...
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- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- Parliament of New Zealand
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- PTC India Limited - India
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Australian Coal Association
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Planning Commission, India
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- White Energy Company Limited
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
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