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Sunday, 03 July 22
SOVEREIGN SECTOR OUTLOOK REVISED TO NEUTRAL ON UKRAINE WAR IMPACT - FITCH RATINGS
 The deterioration in global sovereign credit conditions this year relative to our expectations at end-2021 has caused Fitch Ratings to change its global sovereign sector outlook to neutral from improving. The impact of the Ukraine war and consequent sanctions on geopolitical risk, trade and capital flows, and economic growth and inflation will not be resolved in 2H22.
Policy responses are driving the fiscal effects of inflation, making post-Covid-19 pandemic consolidation that was evident last year less certain. Meanwhile the Federal Reserve and most other major central banks will tighten policy much more aggressively than anticipated, adding to funding stresses for emerging markets (EMs) with limited local-currency financing options. Commodity exporters are benefiting from high prices, but EMs that are net commodity importers face high gross external funding needs.
Sector outlooks are a general forward-looking assessment of underlying conditions relative to the prior calendar year. Emerging Europe and sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) are the only regions with deteriorating sovereign sector outlooks, indicating that we now see underlying conditions as being worse than in 2021. Sovereigns in the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) are exposed to Russia’s economic contraction, and many sovereigns in central and eastern Europe have insufficient alternative energy sources if Russia ceases gas exports.
Inflation and tighter global financial conditions are further weakening SSA’s macroeconomic prospects, and in many cases, the cost and availability of external financing. The region’s main oil exporters will gain from higher prices, although domestic fuel subsidies limit the fiscal benefit for Nigeria.
In western Europe, weaker GDP growth will slow, but not reverse, fiscal consolidation, while we expect APAC economies generally to continue recovering, albeit more slowly. Both regions’ sector outlooks are now neutral, versus improving at the start of the year. But while much of APAC gains from economic reopening, near-term growth in Greater China will be partly influenced by ‘zero Covid’ policies, and we expect China’s economy to grow just 3.7% this year following lockdowns in 1H22. Our Greater China sector outlook remains neutral.
Our neutral sector outlooks for North America and Latin America are also unchanged. US recession risks have risen, but its financing needs are declining and the strong post-pandemic rebound boosted revenues. Latin America’s economic recovery has remained fairly resilient as the pandemic has receded, allowing economic reopening to continue, while higher commodity prices improve terms-of-trade for some. But measures to cushion households from higher fuel and food prices are reducing the net fiscal benefits for commodity exporters and slowing consolidation elsewhere. Difficult political backdrops continue to complicate efforts to tackle underlying growth and fiscal challenges.
The Middle East and North Africa (MENA) is the only region to maintain its improving sector outlook assigned at end-2021. Oil-exporting sovereigns will register significantly stronger public finances and growth in 2022, although the economic picture will be much more challenging outside the Gulf Cooperation Council. The MENA sector outlook is supported to varying degrees by reform momentum as well as by the more constructive regional political dynamics that emerged last year.
Sector outlooks are distinct from Rating Outlooks. Notwithstanding the effects of the war in Ukraine and higher inflation, the numbers of Positive and Negative Rating Outlooks are almost equal in Fitch’s global sovereign portfolio after the balance was deeply negative during the pandemic. This partly reflects the stabilisation of Outlooks on some sovereigns, including Japan, India and Panama, since end-2021. Downgrades to Ukraine, Belarus and Tunisia have taken their ratings to ‘CCC’, where Fitch does not assign Outlooks to sovereign ratings.
More broadly, with a record-high share of sovereigns rated in the ‘B’ category or lower, additional sovereign defaults are likely as EM commodity importers face tighter global funding conditions.
Source: Fitch Ratings
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Sunday, 10 September 23
CHINA AUGUST COAL IMPORTS OF 44.3 MLN T HIT RECORD - REUTERS
China, the world’s top coal consumer, imported 44.3 million metric tons of the fuel last month, customs data showed, the highest amount in an ...
Tuesday, 22 August 23
CHINA'S COAL PRODUCTION LOGS STEADY GROWTH IN JANUARY-JULY: XINHUA
China’s output of raw coal went up 3.6 percent year on year in the first seven months of this year, official data showed.
The ...
Sunday, 13 August 23
THE COMMODITIES FEED: LNG SUPPLY RISKS LINGER - ING
Energy – OPEC sees deficit over remainder of 2023
Oil prices came under some pressure yesterday with ICE Brent settling a litt ...
Wednesday, 09 August 23
COAL TRADE TO RETURN TO 2019 LEVELS - BALTIC EXCHANGE
The International Energy Agency’s mid-year Coal Market Update for 2023 brings both positive and concerning news for the global coal industry. ...
Sunday, 23 July 23
ANALYSIS-INDIA'S COAL MINING BET STUMBLES AS WARY BANKS WEIGH RISING RISKS - REUTERS
India’s drive to ramp up coal output to meet growing energy demand is faltering due to banks’ reluctance to finance newly auctioned min ...
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- Heidelberg Cement - Germany
- San Jose City I Power Corp, Philippines
- Australian Coal Association
- Carbofer General Trading SA - India
- Marubeni Corporation - India
- Merrill Lynch Commodities Europe
- Dr Ramakrishna Prasad Power Pvt Ltd - India
- Attock Cement Pakistan Limited
- European Bulk Services B.V. - Netherlands
- Ceylon Electricity Board - Sri Lanka
- Semirara Mining Corp, Philippines
- Cigading International Bulk Terminal - Indonesia
- Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk - Indonesia
- IHS Mccloskey Coal Group - USA
- AsiaOL BioFuels Corp., Philippines
- Karaikal Port Pvt Ltd - India
- Binh Thuan Hamico - Vietnam
- SMC Global Power, Philippines
- Australian Commodity Traders Exchange
- Dong Bac Coal Mineral Investment Coporation - Vietnam
- Coal and Oil Company - UAE
- Kartika Selabumi Mining - Indonesia
- Therma Luzon, Inc, Philippines
- Thai Mozambique Logistica
- Planning Commission, India
- Indo Tambangraya Megah - Indonesia
- Economic Council, Georgia
- Toyota Tsusho Corporation, Japan
- Siam City Cement PLC, Thailand
- Aboitiz Power Corporation - Philippines
- Directorate General of MIneral and Coal - Indonesia
- Tata Chemicals Ltd - India
- Mercator Lines Limited - India
- Makarim & Taira - Indonesia
- Meralco Power Generation, Philippines
- Aditya Birla Group - India
- VISA Power Limited - India
- Gujarat Mineral Development Corp Ltd - India
- Interocean Group of Companies - India
- Altura Mining Limited, Indonesia
- Bayan Resources Tbk. - Indonesia
- Bukit Makmur.PT - Indonesia
- Kalimantan Lumbung Energi - Indonesia
- Alfred C Toepfer International GmbH - Germany
- McConnell Dowell - Australia
- Asia Pacific Energy Resources Ventures Inc, Philippines
- Sindya Power Generating Company Private Ltd
- Kohat Cement Company Ltd. - Pakistan
- Vijayanagar Sugar Pvt Ltd - India
- Independent Power Producers Association of India
- Maharashtra Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Standard Chartered Bank - UAE
- Romanian Commodities Exchange
- Sojitz Corporation - Japan
- Petron Corporation, Philippines
- Indika Energy - Indonesia
- Thiess Contractors Indonesia
- Pipit Mutiara Jaya. PT, Indonesia
- Wood Mackenzie - Singapore
- The University of Queensland
- Larsen & Toubro Limited - India
- Bharathi Cement Corporation - India
- Neyveli Lignite Corporation Ltd, - India
- Kideco Jaya Agung - Indonesia
- Gujarat Electricity Regulatory Commission - India
- Indian Energy Exchange, India
- Energy Development Corp, Philippines
- Global Coal Blending Company Limited - Australia
- Bulk Trading Sa - Switzerland
- Rio Tinto Coal - Australia
- Commonwealth Bank - Australia
- Simpson Spence & Young - Indonesia
- Bhushan Steel Limited - India
- Vizag Seaport Private Limited - India
- Power Finance Corporation Ltd., India
- Dalmia Cement Bharat India
- Port Waratah Coal Services - Australia
- Central Java Power - Indonesia
- Minerals Council of Australia
- Georgia Ports Authority, United States
- Asmin Koalindo Tuhup - Indonesia
- Bangladesh Power Developement Board
- Chamber of Mines of South Africa
- Maheswari Brothers Coal Limited - India
- TeaM Sual Corporation - Philippines
- MS Steel International - UAE
- Bahari Cakrawala Sebuku - Indonesia
- Electricity Authority, New Zealand
- ICICI Bank Limited - India
- Rashtriya Ispat Nigam Limited - India
- TNB Fuel Sdn Bhd - Malaysia
- Orica Mining Services - Indonesia
- Parliament of New Zealand
- PowerSource Philippines DevCo
- Borneo Indobara - Indonesia
- Intertek Mineral Services - Indonesia
- Agrawal Coal Company - India
- Star Paper Mills Limited - India
- Formosa Plastics Group - Taiwan
- White Energy Company Limited
- Singapore Mercantile Exchange
- Tamil Nadu electricity Board
- Riau Bara Harum - Indonesia
- Indian Oil Corporation Limited
- Bhoruka Overseas - Indonesia
- Miang Besar Coal Terminal - Indonesia
- Anglo American - United Kingdom
- Ministry of Finance - Indonesia
- Uttam Galva Steels Limited - India
- London Commodity Brokers - England
- Krishnapatnam Port Company Ltd. - India
- Global Green Power PLC Corporation, Philippines
- Sakthi Sugars Limited - India
- Salva Resources Pvt Ltd - India
- Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand
- Straits Asia Resources Limited - Singapore
- Bukit Baiduri Energy - Indonesia
- Kaltim Prima Coal - Indonesia
- Videocon Industries ltd - India
- Kobexindo Tractors - Indoneisa
- Coastal Gujarat Power Limited - India
- Truba Alam Manunggal Engineering.Tbk - Indonesia
- Filglen & Citicon Mining (HK) Ltd - Hong Kong
- SN Aboitiz Power Inc, Philippines
- Trasteel International SA, Italy
- Bank of Tokyo Mitsubishi UFJ Ltd
- Lanco Infratech Ltd - India
- Eastern Energy - Thailand
- GVK Power & Infra Limited - India
- IEA Clean Coal Centre - UK
- Billiton Holdings Pty Ltd - Australia
- Holcim Trading Pte Ltd - Singapore
- GMR Energy Limited - India
- Kumho Petrochemical, South Korea
- Semirara Mining and Power Corporation, Philippines
- Essar Steel Hazira Ltd - India
- Banpu Public Company Limited - Thailand
- Samtan Co., Ltd - South Korea
- The Treasury - Australian Government
- Sree Jayajothi Cements Limited - India
- Posco Energy - South Korea
- Directorate Of Revenue Intelligence - India
- Coalindo Energy - Indonesia
- Ministry of Mines - Canada
- Medco Energi Mining Internasional
- CIMB Investment Bank - Malaysia
- Timah Investasi Mineral - Indoneisa
- Energy Link Ltd, New Zealand
- SMG Consultants - Indonesia
- Renaissance Capital - South Africa
- Sical Logistics Limited - India
- Grasim Industreis Ltd - India
- Bhatia International Limited - India
- Mjunction Services Limited - India
- PNOC Exploration Corporation - Philippines
- Karbindo Abesyapradhi - Indoneisa
- Deloitte Consulting - India
- Malabar Cements Ltd - India
- Goldman Sachs - Singapore
- OPG Power Generation Pvt Ltd - India
- Edison Trading Spa - Italy
- Mintek Dendrill Indonesia
- Jorong Barutama Greston.PT - Indonesia
- International Coal Ventures Pvt Ltd - India
- Iligan Light & Power Inc, Philippines
- Parry Sugars Refinery, India
- LBH Netherlands Bv - Netherlands
- Baramulti Group, Indonesia
- ASAPP Information Group - India
- Latin American Coal - Colombia
- Price Waterhouse Coopers - Russia
- Sarangani Energy Corporation, Philippines
- CNBM International Corporation - China
- PTC India Limited - India
- Ambuja Cements Ltd - India
- Vedanta Resources Plc - India
- Africa Commodities Group - South Africa
- Barasentosa Lestari - Indonesia
- GN Power Mariveles Coal Plant, Philippines
- Jaiprakash Power Ventures ltd
- Savvy Resources Ltd - HongKong
- Ind-Barath Power Infra Limited - India
- Indogreen Group - Indonesia
- Manunggal Multi Energi - Indonesia
- Jindal Steel & Power Ltd - India
- India Bulls Power Limited - India
- Offshore Bulk Terminal Pte Ltd, Singapore
- Globalindo Alam Lestari - Indonesia
- Indonesian Coal Mining Association
- Kepco SPC Power Corporation, Philippines
- Metalloyd Limited - United Kingdom
- Global Business Power Corporation, Philippines
- Orica Australia Pty. Ltd.
- Central Electricity Authority - India
- Pendopo Energi Batubara - Indonesia
- Ministry of Transport, Egypt
- The State Trading Corporation of India Ltd
- Oldendorff Carriers - Singapore
- Chettinad Cement Corporation Ltd - India
- GAC Shipping (India) Pvt Ltd
- Sinarmas Energy and Mining - Indonesia
- Mercuria Energy - Indonesia
- Madhucon Powers Ltd - India
- Antam Resourcindo - Indonesia
- New Zealand Coal & Carbon
- PetroVietnam Power Coal Import and Supply Company
- Gujarat Sidhee Cement - India
- Kapuas Tunggal Persada - Indonesia
- Leighton Contractors Pty Ltd - Australia
- Xindia Steels Limited - India
- Cement Manufacturers Association - India
- South Luzon Thermal Energy Corporation
- Petrochimia International Co. Ltd.- Taiwan
- Meenaskhi Energy Private Limited - India
- Siam City Cement - Thailand
- Wilmar Investment Holdings
- Eastern Coal Council - USA
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